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· Premarket Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) and Paradis Labs weighed a Marvell-Lumentum deal, Jukan relayed Samsung's long-term memory agreements, and KLA expects 2027 equipment spending above $200 billion.
Themes on this desk
Marvell-Lumentum terms
TengyanAI notes Marvell fell 8.4% to $230.49 while Lumentum rose 3.5%; Mizuho says a ~38% premium could imply upside to as much as $1,260+ for Lumentum.
Microsoft capacity delay
@jiahanjimliu and a former CFO argue the delayed Microsoft lease is most likely Nscale's, while TengyanAI notes IREN's ~$9.7 billion contract deploys in phases through 2026.
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Market Radar →Samsung has signed long-term memory supply agreements with 10 major customers and is negotiating with 10 more
Samsung says that, given current contract negotiation trends, 60-70% of its total production capacity is increasingly likely to be covered by long-term supply agreements through 2030.
SAMSUNG: WE HAVE SIGNED LONG-TERM MEMORY SUPPLY AGREEMENTS (LTAS) WITH 10 MAJOR CUSTOMERS AND ARE IN NEGOTIATIONS WITH ANOTHER 10.
Most of Samsung's production capacity is increasingly likely to be under long-term agreements through 2030.
Watch Signing of the 10 agreements still in negotiation.
Source →Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) says Marvell is in the final stages of a deal to acquire Lumentum
@aleabitoreddit calls it an attempt to vertically integrate the most supply-constrained chokepoints, lasers, and says a completed deal would make other laser players more strategically valuable.
Holy sht, $MRVL is in the final stages of a deal to acquire $LITE.
The post treats laser supply as the scarce layer Marvell is buying.
Watch Whether Marvell and Lumentum announce a deal.
Source →Paradis Labs says a Marvell-Lumentum deal has to be mostly stock
Paradis Labs notes Marvell has about $3.9 billion of cash versus $5.0 billion of debt, thinks staying investment grade caps new debt around $15-20 billion, and at a ~30% premium sees $85-90 billion or more paid in stock, with Lumentum holders owning ~30% of the combined company.
Initial notes on $MRVL's rumoured $LITE acquisition: 1. Why?! - $LITE's CEO has said they're sold out into 2029.
Paradis Labs notes Lumentum's CEO has said it is sold out into 2029 and thinks owning the fab might be the only way Marvell can guarantee supply for FY28 growth.
Watch The premium and the stock portion of any announced terms.
Source →@jiahanjimliu says Microsoft's delay is most likely Nscale's
Citing a former CFO's accounting forensics, the post says Nscale is the only one that has given up delivering one or more of its contracts in 2026, though IREN or NBIS could still be delayed.
@_Sgr_A_Star who was a CFO in his previous life says it’s most likely Nscale. Seeing his accounting forensics:
The quoted former CFO says the full present value of the finance lease is recorded as capex, so the "$5B" figure is somewhat overstated.
Watch Delivery updates from Nscale, IREN and Nebius.
Source →KLA guided December revenue to $4.7 billion and expects CY27 WFE above $200 billion
KLA's September-quarter revenue rose 13% q/q and 29% y/y to $4.14 billion at a 62.7% gross margin, and it raised its CY26 WFE view, including advanced packaging, to the mid-$150 billions from the low-$150 billions in July.
KLA QSep26 - Revenue up 13% q/q and 29% y/y to $4.14B (above midpoint) at 62.7% GM - QDec guided
2H26 revenue is now up about 25% half on half versus a prior expectation of 20%.
Watch December-quarter revenue against the $4.7 billion guide at a 62.5% gross margin.
Source →