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Next edition in 266 min Oct 26, 23:00 - Oct 27, 09:00 Lisbon
Premarket Alpha Midday Alpha Post-Market Alpha
Daily Alpha Premarket Alpha by Buzzberg Research

What matters before the open

Chinese cloud providers reportedly sought long-term memory deals, some through 2035, before SK hynix reports; SpaceX is projected as the top 2027 VR200 rack buyer; CoWoS prices are reportedly set to rise 10-20%; bubbleboi sees a neocloud glut as Citizens cites higher contract rates.

Main narratives

day change
01

Chinese cloud providers reportedly sought long-term memory supply deals, some running through 2035

Alibaba, Tencent and ByteDance have requested long-term DDR5 and LPDDR5 supply agreements from Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, some for 10 years through 2035, per Korean media relayed by Jukan. J.P. Morgan forecasts Q4'26 DRAM contract prices up 13% and NAND up 18%, per pequityresearch. SK hynix reports Q3 on October 28; mkfilko cites FnGuide consensus of about KRW77 trillion of operating profit, a ~78% margin.

000660.KS +2.2% · 005930.KS -4.1% · MU -2.6%
02

SpaceX is projected to be the largest 2027 buyer of Nvidia VR200 racks, with 20,000

An outlook from @sssjeffpu, shared by pequityresearch and Jukan, projects 73,000 NVL72 racks in 2026, only 6,000 of them VR200, and 96,000 in 2027, when SpaceX takes 20,000 racks of its 30,000+ demand, about 10 GW. Pequityresearch puts a VR200 at about $8 million, or $160 billion for SpaceX's racks. Zephyr says Foxconn's 2026 Rubin rack production cuts were true.

NVDA -0.5%
03

CoWoS prices are reportedly set to rise 10% to 20%, with equipment lead times at six to eight months

Foundries and packaging houses are preparing CoWoS price adjustments estimated at 10% to 20%, and equipment lead times have stretched from three to six months to six to eight months, per pequityresearch. Liwei cites estimates of CoWoS capacity above 130,000 wafers a month in 2026 and a 200,000 target for 2027, and notes Anthropic's S-1 says tight TSMC capacity already kept it from obtaining enough chips on time.

TSM -1.9%
04

Bubbleboi says the S-1 points to a neocloud glut while Citizens cites higher contract rates

Bubbleboi argues the S-1 points to a neocloud overbuild: if the company is profitable without spending close to the compute neoclouds provide, who is the marginal buyer? Citizens, quoted by pequityresearch, is more positive: Nebius signed agreements at $20-$25 million per MW with customers prepaying 50-60% of capex, and IREN moved from about $10 million to above $20 million. Bernstein estimates CoreWeave needs $108 billion more capex to reach 4.2 GW.

CRWV -5.8% · NBIS -5.8% · IREN -4.0%

Themes of the session

?
Z-score shows how far this edition's mention count is above or below the theme's own average across 20 comparable earlier editions. +2.7σ means mentions are 2.7 standard deviations above that average — simply, the theme is being mentioned much more often than usual. It measures attention, not bullishness or expected return. Themes need at least 8 posts; gold begins at +2σ, and σ is hidden when history is too thin.
Retail & Mobility +2.7σ
GME +0.3% · UBER +0.6% · BABA -2.1%
+5 more WHR — · DASH — · HELP +2.2% · 005360.KS — · ATZ.TO -1.4%
29 posts 21 voices base 10.8
Hyperscalers +2.0σ
META +0.9% · GOOGL -10.2% · AMZN -1.0%
+3 more MSFT +2.9% · GOOG — · ORCL —
51 posts 35 voices base 28.1
AI Hardware +2.0σ
AAPL +1.3% · CLS -3.4% · 009150.KS -4.1%
+6 more STX — · DELL -1.4% · 2317.TW +0.0% · HPE -2.6% · 3711.TW — · HPQ —
26 posts 21 voices base 13.1
Streaming +2.0σ
NFLX +0.7% · 035900.KQ +0.0%
11 posts 8 voices base 3.5
Banks +1.7σ
HSBC +0.3% · BAC +1.3% · C +1.7%
+7 more GBCI — · BNY — · BK — · BPI.PS — · MBT.PS — · CBA.AX — · JPM —
15 posts 8 voices base 6.0
Equity Indexes +0.9σ
SPY — · EWY -2.7% · EWZ -0.2%
+21 more QQQ — · EWJ +0.0% · ^KS11 — · COMPQ — · VOO — · IBOV — · MCHI — · KOSPI — · EEM — · DJI — · NASDAQ — · NKY — · SOX — · SP500 — · EZA — · VGK — · EWQ — · SCHD — · VYM — · VT — · KRX:KOSDAQ —
48 posts 43 voices base 36.5
AI ASIC +0.6σ
AVGO -2.3% · QCOM -1.6% · CDNS -1.6%
+6 more SNPS -1.3% · 2454.TW — · SMTC — · 688008.SS +0.0% · MRVL — · 6526.T —
16 posts 12 voices base 11.6
AI Photonics +0.3σ
AAOI -2.6% · LITE +6.0% · CRDO -4.4%
+9 more COHR — · 011070.KS — · SIVE — · MXL — · NOK — · GLW — · ALMU — · LWLG — · CIEN —
15 posts 10 voices base 13.6
NeoCloud +0.2σ
CRWV -5.8% · NBIS -5.8% · IREN -4.0%
+5 more BRUN — · KC — · GDS — · NXT.AX +0.0% · APLD —
26 posts 22 voices base 22.4
Autos & EV +0.1σ
TSLA -0.1% · 012330.KS +0.0% · POAHY +0.0%
+4 more RIVN — · VWAGY — · P911.DE — · STLA —
19 posts 15 voices base 18.0
Pharma & Biotech +0.1σ
MRNA +2.1% · NVS +3.0% · IBRX +0.6%
+4 more SLS — · 214450.KQ — · 207940.KS — · GSK —
8 posts 7 voices base 7.6
Crypto Assets -0.3σ
BTC — · ETH — · HYPE —
+3 more VAR — · TAO — · XTEN —
27 posts 17 voices base 30.4
AI Memory -0.5σ
000660.KS +2.2% · 005930.KS -4.1% · MU -2.6%
+6 more SNDK -2.1% · WDC -2.6% · SKHY — · 285A.T +0.0% · RMBS +0.0% · 005935.KS —
30 posts 28 voices base 38.0
Foundry Equipment -0.5σ
TSM -1.9% · INTC -3.2% · AMAT -1.4%
+12 more ACMR — · BESIY — · LRCX — · BESI — · 095340.KQ — · 240810.KQ — · 084370.KQ — · AMKR — · CAMT — · ONTO — · 2330.TW — · NXPI —
18 posts 11 voices base 22.2
Positioning Market Radar →

Buying / adding

3 positions · 3 voices

Selective / waiting

3 positions · 3 voices

Fading / not buying

3 positions · 3 voices
YouTube
18 videos · 37h 13m TBPN framed Anthropic's IPO filing as a major AI-market event and Bloomberg tied it to a rally in Korean and Japanese chip names; BlackRock's Rick Rieder prefers shorter maturities and credit, and Morgan Stanley's Michael Gapen expects a hawkish Fed hold. Open the desk →
X
1034 posts Jukan relayed Chinese cloud providers seeking long-term memory deals, some through 2035, Zephyr said Foxconn's 2026 Rubin rack cuts were true, and bubbleboi said the S-1 points to a neocloud glut. Open the desk →
Reddit
330 threads WSB commenters bought GOOG shares and calls into earnings while one argued for a deeper drop, and a r/ValueInvesting post argued Celestica trades at 11.5x forward earnings after guiding to 90% revenue growth in 2027. Open the desk →
Substack
4 letters Noah Smith argues Japan's reindustrialization, defense tech and robotics are a major investment opportunity and challenges the AI data-center crowd-out narrative. Open the desk →