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Next edition in 312 min Oct 29, 2026, 09:00-16:00 Lisbon
Premarket Alpha Midday Alpha Post-Market Alpha
Daily Alpha Midday Alpha by Buzzberg Research

What changed since premarket

Alphabet fell more than 13% as search growth slowed and Gil Luria urged splitting search from Cloud; Fortinet and ServiceNow sank on weaker guides; Microsoft launched its first high-grade bond offering since 2017 as neoclouds fell; ASE raised its advanced packaging outlook.

Main narratives

day change
01

Alphabet fell more than 13%, and D.A. Davidson's Gil Luria says it should split search from Google Cloud

Alphabet fell more than 13%, on track for its biggest post-earnings drop on record, per The Kobeissi Letter. Per Bloomberg via Zerohedge, search-related revenue growth slowed to 12% from 17% and free cash flow was negative for a second straight quarter. On CNBC, Gil Luria called search ads a declining business and argued for separating Google Cloud. @ren_stocks counters that Cloud growth rose to 103%, with Cloud operating margin around 36%.

GOOGL -13.6%
02

Fortinet and ServiceNow fell sharply on weak guidance

Fortinet traded 28% lower premarket after product revenue fell short and it cut its full-year services guide, and ServiceNow fell 19% on an underwhelming subscription-revenue guide with a bookings and profit miss, per Newsquawk. @goodalexander groups both with Alphabet and Robinhood as AI stories now decelerating, and contrasts consumer strength: a 15% comp at Cheesecake Factory, 10% at Chili's and a raised full-year guide at Norwegian Cruise.

FTNT -20.9% · NOW -28.1%
03

Microsoft launched its first high-grade bond offering since 2017 as neocloud shares fell

Microsoft launched a 10-part high-grade bond offering with 2- to 40-year maturities, its first since 2017, to help fund AI investment, per Bloomberg via The Kobeissi Letter. @oguzerkan argues that with every hyperscaler now borrowing, neocloud capital costs rise. CoreWeave and Nebius traded 7% lower premarket and IREN 5.5% lower, which Newsquawk tied to Microsoft's lower-than-expected capex pointing to partners taking longer to deliver capacity.

MSFT -0.5% · CRWV -10.1% · NBIS -11.6% · IREN -14.2%
04

ASE raised its 2026 advanced packaging outlook to $4.0 billion as STMicro's AI data-center revenue tracks above $2 billion for 2027

ASE's revenue rose 44.8% year on year to NT$244.16 billion, and it raised its 2026 LEAP advanced packaging and testing outlook to $4.0 billion, targeting a doubling in 2027, per @liwei_twcapital. @skundojjala says ASE revised capex a third time, to $11.5 billion. STMicro's AI data-center revenue is tracking $1.3 billion in 2026 and well above $2 billion in 2027, and Aixtron's Q3 order intake more than doubled to €275 million.

ASX -0.7% · STM +0.0% · AIXA.DE +8.5%

Themes of the session

?
Z-score shows how far this edition's mention count is above or below the theme's own average across 20 comparable earlier editions. +2.7σ means mentions are 2.7 standard deviations above that average — simply, the theme is being mentioned much more often than usual. It measures attention, not bullishness or expected return. Themes need at least 8 posts; gold begins at +2σ, and σ is hidden when history is too thin.
Hyperscalers +6.6σ
GOOGL -13.6% · MSFT -0.5% · AMZN -11.2%
+2 more META +1.4% · ORCL -6.6%
189 posts 124 voices base 39.5
Construction & Infrastructure +6.4σ
CAT -9.8% · 047040.KS +0.0% · 000720.KS +0.0%
+8 more WCC — · ADT — · EME — · PWR — · WKC — · INLF — · ESLOY — · STRL —
28 posts 20 voices base 5.8
Internet Platforms +6.2σ
RDDT -21.0% · GGLL -27.4% · PINS -12.4%
16 posts 13 voices base 2.2
Mobility & Delivery +6.1σ
DASH —
9 posts 5 voices base 1.3
GLP-1 / Obesity +4.9σ
LLY +7.5%
12 posts 11 voices base 2.5
Crypto Treasuries +4.7σ
MSTR -7.4% · BMNR -7.0% · PURR —
+2 more ORBS — · STRC —
16 posts 9 voices base 3.4
Staples Retail +2.9σ
CART -2.5% · WMT +4.0%
8 posts 5 voices base 1.8
Crypto Assets +2.7σ
HYPE — · BTC — · ETH —
+8 more ZEC — · ORBS — · PURR — · PEPE — · ANSEM — · WLD — · USDC — · VVV —
60 posts 28 voices base 31.8
Pharma & Biotech +2.6σ
IOVA -37.5% · MRK +4.9% · BMY +2.3%
+9 more MRNA — · PDSB — · MSDL — · BHC +28.5% · GILD — · ABBV — · INSM — · NAUT — · RXRX —
27 posts 14 voices base 11.3
Networking & Photonics +2.5σ
LITE -4.2% · SILC -22.6% · AAOI -10.8%
+17 more SIVE — · CRDO — · AXTI — · CIEN — · ADTN — · APH — · BDC — · GLW — · COMM — · FN — · COHR — · LPTH — · M7U.DE — · IQE — · AMS.SW — · IQE.L — · CSCO —
30 posts 19 voices base 17.4
Packaged Foods +2.2σ
BG -3.7% · HSY -1.5% · HEIA —
+3 more GIS — · HNHPF — · MDLZ —
9 posts 6 voices base 2.4
Software & SaaS +2.0σ
NOW -28.1% · PLTR -1.5% · IBM +0.7%
+7 more TWLO — · CRM — · BOX — · MEI — · MNDY — · ZETA — · TEAM —
22 posts 18 voices base 12.2
Cybersecurity +1.9σ
FTNT -20.9% · PANW -5.2% · CRWD -3.8%
+1 more NET —
10 posts 9 voices base 4.2
Restaurants +1.4σ
QSR -1.5% · SBUX +0.4% · CMG +8.3%
+4 more MCD — · WING — · CAKE +5.9% · EAT +0.5%
8 posts 8 voices base 3.4
Positioning Market Radar →

Buying / adding

2 positions · 2 voices

AST SpaceMobile

@almacap114204 says they have been building the position heavily since the SpaceX six-week delay was revealed, arguing the launch delay is now explained and manufacturing cadence appears to be picking up.

@almacap114204 Alpha #7 22 smart
$ASTS, I think the uncertainty is clearing.
ASTS
7d before+11.1%
since call -3.0%

Selective / waiting

1 positions · 1 voices

Fading / not buying

3 positions · 3 voices
YouTube
22 videos · 16h 45m CNBC and Bloomberg guests split on Alphabet: Gil Luria argued for separating search from Google Cloud, while Citi Wealth's Kate Moore said the market is treating modest shortfalls as an excuse to trim risk. Open the desk →
X
1496 posts X weighed Alphabet's negative $9.1 billion free cash flow against 103% Cloud growth, while @oguzerkan read Microsoft's bond deal as a higher cost of capital for neoclouds. Open the desk →
Reddit
276 threads Reddit argued over whether Alphabet's drop is a buying chance, alongside standalone theses on SoFi and FTAI and a short case on eHealth. Open the desk →
Substack
17 letters Fidenza Macro says growth and inflation are both decelerating, while QTR's Fringe Finance relays Steve Eisman's charge that Anthropic withheld its latest quarterly statements. Open the desk →