UGA United States Gasoline Fund LP Loading... : Bullish and Bearish Analyst Opinions
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Top Calls
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15:48
Sep 02
Sep 02
Refined product inventories are dangerously low.
Refined product inventories for diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel are at red lows, U.S. refiners are already running at max capacity, and seasonal demand is set to pick up, putting upward pressure on product prices.
HIGH
06:39
Sep 02
Sep 02
Diesel prices stay elevated.
Diesel is the workhorse of the global economy and is being hit by Ukrainian attacks on Russian refining, Russian export curbs, Middle East output disruption and Hormuz blockage; with winter heating demand, prices are likely to stay elevated.
HIGH
21:45
Aug 31
Aug 31
Venezuela deal may lower oil prices.
President Trump says oil prices may come down at some point because of the $100 billion Venezuela oil deal, which he describes as a fix for bringing down US gas prices and sending oil to places like Houston and Louisiana.
MED
14:36
Aug 30
Aug 30
Iran can push US gasoline higher
Iran has no military solution but controls the Strait of Hormuz, giving it economic leverage; if the US pursues an economic D-Day on Iran, Iran can make Americans pay via higher gasoline, with $4 gasoline potentially rising to $5. That creates upside risk for oil and gasoline.
HIGH
12:30
Aug 30
Aug 30
RBOB positioning is currently the most short-term overweight in the energy sector, setting up a potential reversal trade against the breakout.
MED
19:49
Aug 28
Aug 28
Iran war keeps Florida gas prices elevated.
The war with Iran has produced no strategic gain while creating a cost-of-living crisis, with gasoline as a direct transmission channel: Floridians have paid almost $4 billion more for gas and prices are still about $1 above pre-war levels.
MED
13:40
Aug 26
Aug 26
Favor refined products over crude oil exposure.
Focus on refined products like gasoline and diesel rather than crude oil, as refinery disruptions and export cuts are squeezing product supplies and driving inflation, making crude oil mere headline noise.
HIGH
19:11
Aug 25
Aug 25
Refined products show record crack tightness
The real physical tightness is showing up in refined product markets rather than crude. Gasoline and diesel are exceptionally strong, and the diesel crack is historically higher than crude while the heating oil crack has traded above $100, implying flat heating oil prices around $190-200. This is the part of the oil complex that ultimately drives consumer prices.
HIGH
12:02
Aug 25
Aug 25
China oil demand decline pressures crude
China is reducing gasoline and diesel consumption into negative territory via public policy, a stalled population and reduced driving, and it is refining less and exporting less product. Combined with Iranian crude going into reserves rather than consumption, China has done a lot to keep the oil market balanced, and this demand-side restraint is likely to continue.
HIGH
02:00
Aug 22
Aug 22
Ukraine strikes disrupt Russian refined fuel
Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries have disrupted Russian fuel supply enough that Russia, a major oil exporter, is importing gasoline. This is a supply-side disruption in refined products that supports gasoline prices.
MED
23:00
Aug 21
Aug 21
Brent sideways; gasoline and diesel rise.
Brent crude in the $90s reflects a delicate balancing act between both sides in the Iran conflict; until a diplomatic breakthrough or new off-ramp, Brent is likely to trade sideways, while gasoline and diesel remain in short supply and continue to tick higher.
HIGH
05:37
Aug 19
Aug 19
Refined product shortages will drive prices higher.
The market is incorrectly focusing on crude oil flows; the real crisis and price upside lie in refined products like diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel due to disrupted Middle East exports and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries.
HIGH
15:43
Aug 15
Aug 15
Gasoline futures rising on refinery capacity shortage.
Gasoline futures are marching steadily higher even though crude oil is well behaved because reduced refinery capacity is driving refined product and distillate prices up; the energy shock is persisting and hitting Europe/Asia harder, which supports continued gasoline strength.
HIGH
13:00
Aug 15
Aug 15
Diesel, heating oil, gasoline head higher.
Energy and chemical suppliers have hit bottom in available US supply, and the Iran conflict destroyed roughly half of productive capacity for key industrial chemicals, LNG, and diesel. Diesel is already up about 35% since February, and Chris expects heating oil, gasoline, and other industrial inputs to move higher into the fall.
HIGH
11:48
Aug 15
Aug 15
Hormuz blockade supports oil and gasoline
The Strait of Hormuz blockade and possible new Iran sanctions are cutting Iranian oil export capacity and keeping upward pressure on oil and US gasoline prices, with gasoline around $4 a gallon becoming a major political pressure point ahead of the midterms.
MED
22:41
Aug 14
Aug 14
Fuel prices high, persistent, budget-busting.
Higher gasoline and diesel prices are busting household budgets and raising food-transport costs; with no clear end to the Iran conflict, fuel demand remains inelastic for commuting and trucking, keeping fuel costs an ongoing squeeze.
HIGH
20:36
Aug 14
Aug 14
Middle East war supports higher oil prices.
Trump says the U.S. military action against Iran and the Hormuz Strait blockade/no-ship zone justify gasoline rising from under $2 to around $4, implying elevated oil and gasoline prices until the Iran situation is resolved.
HIGH
11:31
Aug 14
Aug 14
Refined products tight; crack spreads supported.
Refining is stretched at 96% utilization with maintenance deferred to capture elevated crack spreads, and over 20% of global refining capacity has been lost from the Middle East, Russia, and China run cuts. This leaves no buffer, so unplanned outages are a big risk and product markets should stay tight, supporting crack spreads while maintenance weighs on crude.
HIGH
06:34
Aug 14
Aug 14
Refined fuels, LNG, copper face upside stress
Product stress and upside will continue in diesel and oil products, even gasoline, while LNG remains in short supply and is harder to shuttle out as Europe and Northeast Asia refill storage; copper is also reflecting restrictions from sulfur.
MED
15:00
Aug 13
Aug 13
Tight supplies will drive global commodities higher.
The global commodity complex is set to return to the forefront over the next three months, driven by a severe global gas shortage exacerbated by heatwaves, low fuel inventories pushing gasoline and diesel prices higher, and super-tight copper supplies facing depleting global inventories.
HIGH
14:18
Aug 13
Aug 13
Global refined fuel supply is very tight.
The world does not have a crude oil problem, but fuel and refined products are critically tight because three of the four main global refining centers are curtailed: Russia's ban on gasoline and diesel exports, the Strait of Hormuz product disruption, and China's fuel export restrictions. Bottlenecks are everywhere, and the tightness is showing up in product prices.
HIGH
13:54
Aug 13
Aug 13
Hormuz disruptions lift commodity prices.
Malley argues the Strait of Hormuz disruption could be indefinite or permanent, and that prices for commodities moving through the strait, including fertilizers and basic products needed by less developed countries, will rise, with Americans also paying more at the gas pump.
HIGH
13:29
Aug 13
Aug 13
Gasoline overpriced versus $81 crude
Gasoline prices are disconnected from crude: with WTI around $81.85, gasoline should be lower, but it remains over $4. This shows the oil-gasoline correlation is out of whack and creates a relative value setup where gasoline is overpriced relative to crude unless a new supply or escalation shock hits.
LOW
00:03
Aug 13
Aug 13
Strait closure lifts fertilizer, gasoline prices
A prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure is likely and will raise prices for commodities that transit the strait, especially fertilizers and other critical goods the rest of the world needs; gasoline prices are also cited as a cost of the conflict.
HIGH
20:47
Aug 12
Aug 12
Gasoline price decline won't last; rebound expected.
July CPI showed a 2.9% month-on-month decline in gasoline, but Liesman said the decline probably will not last and gasoline prices should come back in August data.
HIGH
20:06
Aug 12
Aug 12
Gasoline and oil may rise temporarily in August
Tiffany Wilding says retail gasoline prices fell in June and July but could increase a little in August because of rising oil prices tied to Middle East/Iran risks. However, unless gasoline prices continue rising dramatically, the one-time energy price adjustment's inflationary effect should wear off.
MED
17:14
Aug 12
Aug 12
Gasoline decline won't last; August rebound.
July CPI showed gasoline prices fell 2.9% month-over-month, but Liesman said he does not think that decline will last and expects gasoline to come back in the August data; this is a near-term rebound call for gasoline/energy prices.
MED
20:26
Aug 10
Aug 10
Russian refinery attacks tighten product markets.
Ongoing Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries are causing deeper product market tightness, with no spare refinery capacity globally, raising risks of diesel and gasoline shortages.
HIGH
19:24
Aug 04
Aug 04
Watch diesel, gasoline prices for market impact.
The big thing to watch in oil markets is not WTI or Brent crude, but the price of diesel and gasoline. Those refined products directly impact corporate earnings, the Fed's path, and overall consumers.
MED
12:44
Aug 04
Aug 04
Product shortage keeps refining margins elevated
US refiners are running at 97-100% capacity with virtually no ability to increase output. Diesel and gasoline forward curves signal a product shortage, keeping refining margins massive. Retail gasoline prices are elevated because of product scarcity, and the industry cannot bring more supply to market to lower prices even if crude oil fluctuates.
HIGH
About UGA Analyst Coverage
Buzzberg tracks UGA (United States Gasoline Fund LP) across 13 sources. 56 bullish vs 13 bearish calls from 61 analysts. Sentiment: predominantly bullish (49%). 88 total trade ideas tracked. Past 7 days: 3 bullish, 1 bearish, 2 watch. Latest voices: Steven Schork, Stephen Stapczynski, Donald Trump.