Mark Zandi

Oil and gasoline prices are set to rise sharply if the geopolitical conflict continues, with oil potentially reaching $125/barrel and gasoline $5/gallon, due to inventory drawdowns and fading strategic petroleum reserves. This would push the already fragile economy into recession.

Oil and gasoline prices are set to rise sharply if the geopolitical conflict continues, with oil potentially reaching $125/barrel and gasoline $5/gallon, due to inventory drawdowns and fading strategic petroleum reserves. This would push the already fragile economy into recession.

A bipartisan housing bill passed that includes the "elimination of the permanent chassis for manufactured housing," which Zandi highlights as "really important" for the supply of 100k+ units/year. This is a specific regulatory unlock that lowers costs and removes friction for the manufactured housing sub-sector. Unlike demand-side subsidies (which just inflate prices), this supply-side reform directly benefits the volume and margins of builders focusing on low-to-middle income housing. LONG Homebuilders (specifically those with manufactured housing exposure). Rising interest rates could dampen mortgage demand regardless of supply-side improvements.