Mark Zandi

Nvidia's earnings confirm that the AI investment cycle is a juggernaut and is powering macroeconomic growth. AI accounts for at least a fourth of roughly 2% US GDP growth, and without AI growth would be closer to 1.5%. Nvidia is the poster child for that AI buildout, which is driving the economic trend and is critical to growth.

Oil and gasoline prices are set to rise sharply if the geopolitical conflict continues, with oil potentially reaching $125/barrel and gasoline $5/gallon, due to inventory drawdowns and fading strategic petroleum reserves. This would push the already fragile economy into recession.

AI is powering macroeconomic growth and accounts for at least 25% of roughly 2% GDP growth; without the AI boost, US growth would be closer to 1.5%. Demand-side AI investment, data center capex, and associated chip/electronics demand are key channels.

Oil and gasoline prices are set to rise sharply if the geopolitical conflict continues, with oil potentially reaching $125/barrel and gasoline $5/gallon, due to inventory drawdowns and fading strategic petroleum reserves. This would push the already fragile economy into recession.

A bipartisan housing bill passed that includes the "elimination of the permanent chassis for manufactured housing," which Zandi highlights as "really important" for the supply of 100k+ units/year. This is a specific regulatory unlock that lowers costs and removes friction for the manufactured housing sub-sector. Unlike demand-side subsidies (which just inflate prices), this supply-side reform directly benefits the volume and margins of builders focusing on low-to-middle income housing. LONG Homebuilders (specifically those with manufactured housing exposure). Rising interest rates could dampen mortgage demand regardless of supply-side improvements.