Steven Schork 5.0 13 ideas
President, The Schork Group
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Bloomberg This Weekend 4/11/2026 | Artemis Splashdown, Vance in Pakistan, Happy in a Digital Age
Natural gas supply shock to impact fertilizer and helium.
44% of global LNG supply has been sidelined by the conflict and will remain offline for 3-5 years, turning the natural gas market on its head. This supply shock will have severe knock-on effects, driving up fertilizer costs (leading to food inflation) and disrupting helium production, which is critical for AI expansion and chip manufacturing.
President, The Schork Group
YouTube
Bloomberg This Weekend 4/11/2026 | Artemis Splashdown, Vance in Pakistan, Happy in a Digital Age
Oil prices to stay high due to tight physical supply.
The physical oil market is trading at a significant premium to futures, indicating tight supply and a disconnect from the futures market's hopeful pricing. Despite the temporary cease-fire and potential resumption of Strait of Hormuz traffic, infrastructure damage, seasonal refinery maintenance, and the upcoming summer demand spike will keep oil prices high and volatile, with gasoline prices potentially reaching $5 per gallon.
President, The Schork Group
Oil prices to stay high on supply disruption.
Physical crude oil markets are trading at a significant premium to futures due to infrastructure damage from the war, and with summer demand spike approaching, oil prices are likely to remain elevated or increase further.
President, The Schork Group
Natural gas market disrupted for years, prices up.
20% of global LNG capacity has been sidelined due to the war, and it will take 3-5 years to restore, leading to a disrupted natural gas market with higher prices, impacting fertilizers and other derivatives.
President, The Schork Group
Gasoline prices rising from war and summer blend.
Gasoline prices are expected to rise due to a war premium pass-through and the seasonal shift to summer blend, with national average potentially reaching $4.20 to $5.00 per gallon.
President, The Schork Group
Fertilizer costs to rise from natural gas prices.
Fertilizer prices will increase because natural gas is a key input, and the disruption in natural gas markets will drive up costs for fertilizers, contributing to food inflation.
President, The Schork Group
Schork states that with the current disruption continuing for three more weeks, the path for oil prices is higher towards his "second-tier envelope" of $130-$134 a barrel. He notes strong buying interest from Asia/Europe and that U.S. prices are now catching up to global prices. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has created a physical supply shortage. The extension of hostilities means this shortage will worsen over the next few weeks, forcing buyers to bid prices higher, especially for available U.S. crude. The fundamental setup of prolonged physical disruption, strong global demand for available barrels, and the widening arbitrage support a bullish, higher-for-longer price outlook. A swift, unexpected diplomatic resolution that reopens the Strait much sooner than anticipated.
WTI
Bloomberg Markets
Apr 02, 14:30
President, The Schork Group
The speaker stated the Brent-WTI spread has blown out from ~$5 to ~$14, and that this spread "says everything diplomacy won't." He explicitly said the spread will not narrow until the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens or WTI stops pricing in diplomatic optionality that never materializes, and "neither is imminent." Brent is the benchmark for seaborne crude and is pricing the actual physical shortage and conflict. WTI is a landlocked "hope" contract pricing optimism and diplomatic off-ramps that are not materializing. The widening spread reflects the market's correct skepticism about a near-term resolution. SHORT the Brent-WTI spread (i.e., bet it stays wide or widens further) because the fundamental physical disruption in the Middle East is severe and the optimistic scenarios priced into WTI are unrealistic in the near term. A swift, credible diplomatic resolution that reopens the Strait of Hormuz and halts attacks on energy infrastructure.
President, The Schork Group
Schork explicitly states that a US oil export ban would be catastrophic for US oil production, leading to pent-up supply, inventory build-up, and no place for new production. An export ban would restrict the outflow of US oil, creating domestic oversupply, which depresses prices and discourages production. AVOID the energy minerals sector due to the high political risk and potential for significant economic harm from such a policy. The ban may not be implemented as it is a political tool, and the White House might have received the message against it.
XLE
Bloomberg Markets
Mar 20, 15:01
President, The Schork Group