Skip to report
Next edition in 277 min Nov 4, 2026, 16:00-23:00 Lisbon
Premarket Alpha Midday Alpha Post-Market Alpha
Daily Alpha Post-Market Alpha by Buzzberg Research

What changed since midday

Coherent beat and signed a PhotonLink LTA worth about $20B over five years as Citrini called a peak in AI infrastructure capex. SemiAnalysis sees 2027 data-center capacity largely locked in, with 2028 exposed to state permits. Brent fell more than $7 while Rapidan's McNally expects US-Iran escalation.

Main narratives

day change
01

Coherent beat with $2.37B of revenue and signed a PhotonLink LTA worth about $20B over five years

Coherent's fiscal Q1 revenue was $2.37B versus $2.31B expected, up 50% year over year, with datacenter and communications at 82% of revenue, per @ckcapitalxx. Coherent now expects fiscal 2027 pro forma growth above 60% and a first $4B revenue quarter in fiscal 2028. It signed a PhotonLink LTA with a major AI company worth about $20B over five years, and sees customer orders increasingly extending into CY28.

COHR -10.6%
02

Citrini called a peak in AI infrastructure capex while @ces921 says the market sold memory and neoclouds and bought hyperscalers

Headlines posted by @tradfi say Citrini overhauled its thematic model book, called a peak in AI infrastructure capex, said asymmetric risk in AI infrastructure has shifted to the downside, and expects higher costs for US data centers after the Democratic midterm wins. @ces921 says the market is trading peak AI capex: out of memory, neoclouds and energy, and into staples, healthcare, banks, housing, retail and the hyperscalers themselves.

03

SemiAnalysis sees the 2027 data-center build as largely locked in, with 2028 exposed to Texas and Georgia approvals

SemiAnalysis argues the 2027 datacenter buildout is largely insulated from the midterms because much of that capacity is already under construction or permitted, while the 2028 pipeline depends on approvals in states with governor races, especially Texas and Georgia. It expects stricter terms and higher costs rather than a wholesale halt. @thevalueist counted 33 of 46 local measures written to limit data centers, with limit measures passing or leading in 28 of 31 reporting races.

04

Brent fell more than $7 a barrel, while Rapidan's McNally expects US-Iran escalation after the midterms

Brent crude futures fell more than $7 a barrel and US crude more than $5, per @DeItaone. @ces921 says the Democratic sweep is being read as an Iran de-escalation mandate, with Brent at $95 and the 10-year yield at 4.90%. Bob McNally of Rapidan Energy expects the opposite path: McNally's base case is US-Iran military escalation after the midterms, and he says refined products, not crude, remain the tight part of the oil market.

Themes of the session

?
Z-score shows how far this edition's mention count is above or below the theme's own average across 20 comparable earlier editions. +2.7σ means mentions are 2.7 standard deviations above that average — simply, the theme is being mentioned much more often than usual. It measures attention, not bullishness or expected return. Themes need at least 8 posts; gold begins at +2σ, and σ is hidden when history is too thin.
GLP-1 / Obesity +2.7σ
RYTM -5.1% · HIMS -10.7%
8 posts 5 voices base 2.4
Commodities +2.6σ
USO — · BNO +5.0% · GLD +0.7%
+7 more SILVER -0.4% · CL — · SLV — · WTI — · HO=F — · COPPER -5.7% · DBC +0.6%
49 posts 30 voices base 25.7
AI ASIC +1.9σ
QCOM -8.9% · ARM -10.8% · MRVL -12.8%
+4 more AVGO — · ALAB — · AWX.SI — · AMBA —
47 posts 22 voices base 20.1
Networking & Photonics +1.4σ
LITE -16.2% · COHR -10.6% · AAOI -26.1%
+14 more CRDO -14.1% · SIVE — · OUST — · NOK — · CIEN — · GLW — · CSCO — · POET — · AXTI -21.1% · APH — · ANET — · 002281.SZ — · OCC — · LPTH —
47 posts 25 voices base 26.1
Grid Equipment +1.4σ
VRT -12.0% · GEV -6.7% · MOD -5.6%
+4 more BWXT — · HMM-A.TO — · ETN — · HUBB —
8 posts 7 voices base 4.3
Crypto Miners +1.1σ
CIFR -8.9% · WULF -12.6% · HUT -3.5%
+2 more BMNP — · RIOT —
9 posts 9 voices base 5.2
Construction & Infrastructure +0.9σ
PWR -11.6% · 028050.KS +0.0% · BRM.V -2.7%
+5 more MUEL — · ATS — · ITV — · STRL -11.9% · LIB.V —
8 posts 7 voices base 5.1
Clean Energy +0.5σ
BE -13.1% · NUAI -25.6% · TE -15.4%
10 posts 8 voices base 7.0
Defense +0.5σ
UMAC -19.9% · LMT -3.4% · ONDS -13.5%
+4 more RHM.DE — · RCAT — · AVAV — · KTOS —
8 posts 6 voices base 6.4
Software & SaaS +0.4σ
APP +28.9% · IBM -3.3% · CRM -3.7%
+6 more PLTR — · NOW — · DDOG — · FIG — · ADBE — · TTD —
20 posts 14 voices base 16.6
Internet Platforms +0.4σ
DUOL -2.6% · SNAP -13.5% · RDDT -8.0%
+1 more DJT —
16 posts 11 voices base 8.8
Retail & Mobility +0.3σ
GME — · BABA +2.1% · SHOP -5.9%
+7 more MELI — · CROX — · WOOF — · CVNA — · HTZ — · HD — · DKS —
18 posts 13 voices base 15.9
Thematic ETFs +0.2σ
SOXX -10.6% · SMH -9.6% · DRAM —
+21 more XLF -3.0% · XLK -7.1% · XLV — · NCLD — · AIQ -6.7% · XLY -4.0% · SKYY -8.1% · XBI — · XLP -1.5% · ITA — · MAGS — · SRVR — · TAN — · XOP — · CRAK — · XHB -4.1% · KBE -1.1% · XRT -2.9% · XLU — · KRE — · BIZD —
36 posts 25 voices base 33.6
Consumer Electronics +0.1σ
AAPL -1.8%
16 posts 11 voices base 15.3
Positioning Market Radar →

Buying / adding

3 positions · 3 voices

Selective / waiting

2 positions · 2 voices

US equities

Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson says the correction that began in June is in its late stage but may not be finished, and would treat a final washout as a buying opportunity.

Morgan Stanley
The adjustment that began in June is already progressing considerably beneath the surface. However, I believe that the S&P500 index, which is composed of high-quality stocks, may still have parts that have not yet fully adjusted. Until that runs its course, I do not think we can say the adjustment is complete. What we really should be asking is how far things must deteriorate before the situation improves. Our firm has positioned this adjustment as a transition point to a typical mid-cycle. The change in the earnings forecast revision rate peaked exactly as expected, about one year after the bottoming out of the economic cycle. And the market showed the same kind of reaction as always. Operating leverage and financialtranslated from Japanese

Fading / not buying

2 positions · 2 voices
YouTube
56 videos · 24h 17m SemiAnalysis sees 2027 datacenter capacity largely insulated from the midterms, and Rapidan's McNally expects US-Iran escalation after them. Open the desk →
X
1652 posts Coherent beat estimates and now expects fiscal 2027 pro forma growth above 60%, and @aleabitoreddit flagged an Intel CEO share purchase and AXT's backlog jump. Open the desk →
Reddit
382 threads Posters disclosed buys in Reddit, Vistra and midstream names, and NVDA holders argued over whether data-center delays mean chip oversupply. Open the desk →
Substack
3 letters Damnang argues the substrate shortage lasts until 2031, and Citrini's theme update is titled The End of the Trade (as we know it). Open the desk →