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Next edition in 281 min Nov 4, 23:00 - Nov 5, 09:00 Lisbon
Premarket Alpha Midday Alpha Post-Market Alpha
Daily Alpha Premarket Alpha by Buzzberg Research

What matters before the open

Meritz sees memory supply tightening further in 2027, data-center opponents won 40 of 41 local ballot measures, AT&S and GlobalFoundries reported strong AI component numbers, and a reported Citrini short on Nebius drew pushback from Daniel Koss.

Main narratives

day change
01

Meritz sees memory order fulfillment falling to about 80% in 2027, while Arm and Qualcomm flagged memory costs

Meritz Securities, in a note posted by @jukan05, says 2027-2028 memory orders far exceed supply and expects the order fulfillment rate to fall from the low-to-mid 80% range to around 80% in 2027. It adds that Sam Altman asked SK hynix and Samsung for HBM volumes beyond what they can supply. Downstream, Arm cited memory pricing in the smartphone market as a partial offset to royalties, and Qualcomm handsets fell 26% to $5.1B.

ARM -10.8% · QCOM -8.9%
02

Data-center opponents won 40 of 41 local ballot measures, and Jefferies puts 13.1 GW of Texas projects at risk

@jasonschips counts data-center opponents prevailing on 40 of 41 local ballot measures across 10 states, 21 of them in Ohio, and argues the investment risk is increasingly permission to build, not just demand for compute. TheValueist's digest says Gina Hinojosa won the Texas governor race on a moratorium pledge and cites Jefferies putting 13.1 GW of announced Texas projects at risk. BofA calls the impact a supply and timing issue, not a demand issue.

GOOGL -1.9% · MSFT -3.9% · META -3.9% · ORCL -6.3%
+1 more AMZN -2.8%
03

AT&S posted record Q2 revenue of €682M and GlobalFoundries pulled its $1B silicon-photonics run-rate target forward a year

AT&S reported Q2 revenue of €682M, up 52% year on year, with a 35.8% EBITDA margin and €421M of customer prepayments in six months, per @mkfilko. GlobalFoundries expects about $500M of silicon-photonics revenue this year and a $1B annualized run rate by the end of 2027, a full year ahead of its previous target, per @pep_invest. Coherent's CEO said calendar 2027 is basically booked out.

GFS -8.3% · COHR -10.6%
04

Citrini Research reportedly advised a Nebius short, while Citi set a $265 Nebius target and CoreWeave bonds fell to 78

Per @liquidtrading, Citrini Research advised clients to take a short position in Nebius; Citrini separately says it reduced AI hardware from more than 50% to under 10%. Daniel Koss argues the opposite of the short-Nebius, long-Oracle pair, citing Oracle's BBB- rating and about $118B of long-term debt. Citi has targets of $265 on Nebius and $128 on CoreWeave, whose bonds are down to 78 per @zerohedge.

NBIS -13.2% · ORCL -6.3% · CRWV -7.7%

Themes of the session

?
Z-score shows how far this edition's mention count is above or below the theme's own average across 20 comparable earlier editions. +2.7σ means mentions are 2.7 standard deviations above that average — simply, the theme is being mentioned much more often than usual. It measures attention, not bullishness or expected return. Themes need at least 8 posts; gold begins at +2σ, and σ is hidden when history is too thin.
Gaming & Entertainment +4.5σ
SONY +6.0% · NWSA -13.3% · 352820.KS +0.0%
+4 more KUASF — · NTDOY — · TTWO — · NTES —
11 posts 7 voices base 2.5
Networking & Photonics +2.6σ
COHR -10.6% · AAOI -26.1% · LITE -16.2%
+13 more SIVE — · AXTI — · CRDO — · 300308.SZ — · IQE — · 3363.TWO — · 6451.TW — · 011070.KS — · AMS.SW — · CSCO -7.3% · ANET — · ALMU — · LWLG —
39 posts 22 voices base 16.4
Software & SaaS +1.9σ
APP +28.9% · DDOG -7.6% · PLTR -9.7%
+8 more HUBS -6.8% · ZETA — · VEEV -1.8% · BBAI — · 018260.KS — · DT — · RDVT — · 161390.KS —
19 posts 14 voices base 10.2
NeoCloud +1.4σ
NBIS -13.2% · IREN -7.6% · CRWV -7.7%
+3 more APLD — · BRUN — · FSLY —
44 posts 26 voices base 27.1
Grid Equipment +1.3σ
ABB — · 112610.KS +0.0% · GEV -6.7%
+5 more VRT -12.0% · 298040.KS — · 010120.KS — · ETN — · MOD —
10 posts 10 voices base 5.8
Internet Platforms +1.2σ
TCEHY +3.4% · SNAP -13.5% · 035420.KS +0.0%
+4 more DUOL — · BIDU — · PRX.AS — · DJT —
14 posts 11 voices base 6.4
Clean Energy +1.2σ
BE -13.1% · 009830.KS +0.0% · NXT -5.3%
+5 more ENPH -8.1% · 336260.KS — · NUAI — · 475150.KS — · 322000.KS —
9 posts 10 voices base 5.2
Pharma & Biotech +1.0σ
068270.KS +0.0% · EWTX +3.6% · 207940.KS +0.0%
+21 more 128940.KS — · MRK — · CCCC — · GSK — · PFE — · RHHBY — · MRNA — · ABBV — · ABVX — · AMLX — · ARCT — · AZN — · BMY — · CELC — · CGON — · CLDX — · COGT — · CYTK — · DFTX — · ELVN — · INSM —
13 posts 8 voices base 8.6
Retail & Mobility +0.8σ
BABA +2.1% · ETD -3.2% · MELI -11.7%
+6 more ZG — · TJX — · JD — · MPNGF — · 069960.KS — · W —
14 posts 10 voices base 9.3
AI ASIC +0.5σ
MRVL -12.8% · ARM -10.8% · QCOM -8.9%
+3 more ALAB — · AVGO — · SNPS —
18 posts 16 voices base 13.8
Autos & EV +0.2σ
TSLA -10.1% · 005380.KS -4.9% · AEVA -3.7%
+12 more TM — · 1810.HK — · NIO — · 012330.KS — · 7203.T — · 000270.KS — · 002350.KS — · XIACY — · VWAGY — · XIACF — · RNO.PA — · GM —
24 posts 17 voices base 21.7
Commodities +0.0σ
GLD +0.7% · USO +2.4% · WTI +2.4%
+6 more BNO — · SLV — · SI=F — · CPER — · TTF — · CL —
21 posts 15 voices base 20.8
Memory & Storage -0.3σ
MU -14.1% · 005930.KS -4.3% · 000660.KS -7.1%
+4 more SNDK -18.6% · SKHY — · STX — · WDC —
39 posts 32 voices base 45.7
AI Compute -0.3σ
NVDA -7.9% · AMD -14.5% · CBRS -9.8%
32 posts 23 voices base 35.0
Positioning Market Radar →

Buying / adding

2 positions · 2 voices

Selective / waiting

2 positions · 2 voices

Wilson waits for clearing events

Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson sees AI financing, the midterm election and tightening liquidity as clearing events and would treat drawdowns as buying opportunities.

Morgan Stanley
The adjustment that began in June is already progressing considerably beneath the surface. However, I believe that the S&P500 index, which is composed of high-quality stocks, may still have parts that have not yet fully adjusted. Until that runs its course, I do not think we can say the adjustment is complete. What we really should ask is how far things must deteriorate before the situation improves. Our firm has positioned this adjustment as a transition point to a typical mid-cycle. The change in the earnings forecast revision rate peaked exactly as expected, about one year after the bottoming out of the economic cycle. And the market showed the same kind of reaction as always. Operating leverage and financialtranslated from Japanese

Fading / not buying

2 positions · 2 voices
YouTube
23 videos · 34h 26m TBPN reads local data-center votes as a relative advantage for hyperscalers, Cramer sees slower construction easing DRAM costs for Apple, and Morgan Stanley's Wilson sees the correction as late-stage. Open the desk →
X
1189 posts Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) relayed Coherent's call that 2027 is sold out, Meritz via @jukan05 sees a tighter memory market in 2027, and Daniel Koss argued against Citrini's short-Nebius, long-Oracle pair. Open the desk →
Reddit
258 threads One r/stocks poster sold Sterling and Vertiv after the election, an r/wallstreetbets poster argued Asian HBM suppliers are better placed than Micron as data centers move abroad, and others flagged a $4.4B Big Tech buyback total and 20%+ utility bill increases. Open the desk →
Substack
15 letters Campbell Ramble headlined the sweep as a loss for data centers, while Rooster Global Portfolio Mastery Club posted that it is adding FMG to SUMO. Open the desk →