AMD guided Q4 revenue to about $17B and 2027 growth above 80%, and Super Micro raised its sales view. Applied Optoelectronics locked in five years of InP substrates. AI-trade election risk centers on Texas and the House margin; the US holds up SK hynix's China tools and Nvidia limits Chinese GPU rentals.
AMD reported Q3 revenue of $13.38B versus $13.08B expected and guided Q4 to about $17B, plus or minus 3%. Management now expects 2027 revenue to grow more than 80%, with data center above 80% of revenue, and the stock rose over 6% after hours. Super Micro raised its fiscal-year sales view to $72B-$82B from $65B-$72B. ParadisLabs notes strong reporters rose after hours, the opposite of earlier this season.
Applied Optoelectronics signed a five-year contract with Yunnan Germanium worth $194.4M for 2027 alone, about 180,000 4-inch InP wafers. Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) reads the volume as a sign AOI's laser capacity expansion may be bigger than disclosed. Rosenblatt estimates each $1M of substrates can support about $30M of transceiver sales, so the 2027 contract could underpin about $5.8B of annual transceiver revenue.
Michael Sikand calls the Texas governor race the most consequential election for the AI trade: Texas has 26 GW of data-center capacity built or under construction, and Abbott's opponent is running on a full moratorium. Bloomberg guest Tobin Marcus flagged the same race as a data-center trade risk. Gavin Baker says a narrow Democratic House win is the worst market outcome because it empowers the DSA.
US officials have held up approval for American chipmaking equipment that SK hynix needs to expand production in China, per Reuters citing people familiar. Separately, Nvidia has ordered data-center partners to cut back on Chinese customers: cloud providers must now sell at least 51% of services to non-Chinese companies, tightening Chinese AI firms' access to advanced chips through overseas rentals.
Caesar Capital increased its AAOI position at $63.37 a share, lowering its average cost to $101.23, and @moninvestor also added to AAOI.
@jpinsights added to a Marvell position at $169.
Black Panther Capital sold ASTS and PL and added to existing NBIS and IREN positions, seeing better risk/reward there.
@thematictrader calls the report incredibly strong but questions why AMD trades at 27x 2027 earnings versus Nvidia at 13x on roughly similar 2027 growth.
On Bloomberg Surveillance, Dan Ives expects chip stocks to fall another 10-12% before he starts looking again.
@gaetano2026 sold most of a LITE position a few weeks ago, sold more on last week's pop and has no intention to buy now.
Ashok Bhatia, on Bloomberg Surveillance, has stayed defensive on AI hyperscaler debt, including Oracle, and prefers short high-quality investment-grade debt.
Black Panther Capital sold ASTS, saying it is not impressed by the company's execution at this point.