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Long semiconductors, avoid software due to valuation.
Prefers semiconductors over software because software has derated significantly, now trading in line with department stores, and lacks upside catalysts despite earnings revisions, while semiconductors are more attractive.
The market and economy are largely insulated from the oil shock from Iran, with oil intensity down 75% since the 1970s and only 1.4% of S&P OPEX from oil. Tailwinds from fiscal stimulus, such as the 'one big, beautiful bill', will provide cushion for the next six months, leading to a sugar high for the market over the next three months.
The market is punishing stocks in an investment cycle (hyperscalers) while rewarding capex-takers. Semis and construction companies benefit from the AI buildout as hyperscalers continue spending. This relative trade has further to run.
AI stocks have strong earnings momentum and the fundamentals are not turning, so continue to own them. However, the core premium (implied volatility) is very rich, so selling covered calls on AI stocks is a way to generate extra income while maintaining upside exposure.
Tech is going higher, specifically hyperscalers (the Mach Seven). Turned bullish recently due to free cash flow inflecting higher as top line accelerates, demand outpaces supply, and compute power increases with AI growth, indicating they are not overinvesting.
Ohsung Kwon has 6 trade ideas tracked on Buzzberg across 6 tickers since April 2026. Ranked #249 on the Buzzberg Alpha leaderboard. Most covered: SPY, SMH, AIQ.
#249Ranked Speaker
#249 of 1332 voices on Buzzberg