Daily Alpha · Reddit
· Post-Market Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Reddit weighed Nokia's captive InP fab after Marvell's Lumentum deal, Apollo's math for a 6.75% fed funds rate, and a jump in data-center project cancellations.
Themes on this desk
AMD earnings
One r/AMD_Stock commenter complained AMD was dragged down by Intel's weak guidance; another sold at $655 and bought back in at $515.
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by score · day change17% FCF Yield, 6.3% Dividend Yield: Is MTY Still Undervalued After a 32% Premium Offer?
MTY Food Group shareholder since May who averaged down argues the stock remains undervalued at 7.5x FCF even after Foodtastic's C$43/share premium takeover proposal, which he expects the board to reject as too low.
17% FCF Yield, 6.3% Dividend Yield: Is MTY Still Undervalued After a 32% Premium Offer?Source →
Nokia's captive InP fab gets a scarcity-window case after Marvell's Lumentum deal
The post says Marvell agreed to pay 38x sales for Lumentum's InP capacity and argues Nokia's captive InP fab ramp plus EUR 5.3B of AI & Cloud orders gives it a window of opportunity while InP scarcity lasts.
Marvell agreed to pay 38x sales for Lumentum's InP capacity. That makes Nokia's Infinera acquisition look prescient.
The re-rating hinges on unproven 2027-2028 fab yield and volume execution.
Watch Nokia's InP fab yield and volume in 2027-2028.
Source →Data-center project cancellations in 3Q 2026 topped 2024 and 2025 combined
The author says data-center project cancellations in 3Q 2026 alone were larger than all of 2025 and 2024 combined, and asks whether a construction slowdown is coming.
Is a data centre build slow down is coming?
Cancellations are a direct read on whether the data-center buildout is slowing.
Watch Data-center project cancellations in 4Q 2026.
Source →Apollo calculates the Fed would need a 6.75% rate in 2027 to hit 2% inflation
Per Apollo's calculation, the federal funds rate would need to reach 6.75% to hit the 2% inflation goal in 2027; the poster says this implies either faster and higher hikes than priced or inflation staying above target.
Apollo Says 6.75% FFR in 2027 to Achieve 2% Inflation Goal Apollo has calculated that the Federal Funds Rate would
The poster says higher hikes than priced would mean markets fall.
Watch Fed rate expectations for 2027.
Source →A bull case puts a $200 2027 target on Reddit stock
A detailed thesis argues differentiated human-generated content, improving ad monetization and potential AI licensing deals support a $200 2027 base-case target and $500 by 2030.
Reddit ($RDDT) Stock Thesis - $200 2027 Price Target # Reddit ($RDDT) – Investment Thesis # Investment Disclosure I am
AI licensing deals are framed as upside on top of advertising growth.
Watch New AI licensing deals and ad monetization trends.
Source →Most argued
by comments per upvoteThe rotation into consumer and retail stocks is misguided, argues a WSB post
The author argues soft earnings, weak consumer sentiment, rising rates and high debt will not improve over the next two years, so the rotation into consumer and retail stocks is misguided.
Why the rotation to consumer and retail stocks is misguided Retail and consumer stocks are up 10%-20% over the past
It challenges the recent move into consumer names.
Watch Consumer earnings and sentiment data.
Source →Need your suggestions. My big bag of EWZ - Current situation
Options seller holds 14 short put lots on EWZ with an average strike near $34 and a long-term view that Brazil is oversold and should recover, seeking to exit while retaining premium.
Need your suggestions. My big bag of EWZ - Current situation Below are the strikes and expiry date and qtySource →
A popular ICT setup lost money over 6,400 trades and 11 years
The author backtested a mechanical ICT liquidity-sweep reversal setup on six major stock indices from 2015 to 2026 and found it unprofitable after costs, with SMT divergence making it worse.
I tested the most popular ICT setup over 6,400 trades and 11 years. Here's what happened.
It is evidence against a widely followed retail setup.
Source →