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Next edition in 282 min Nov 5, 2026, 16:00-23:00 Lisbon
Premarket Alpha Midday Alpha Post-Market Alpha
Daily Alpha Post-Market Alpha by Buzzberg Research

What changed since midday

Texas will let permitted data centers finish, per Gavin Baker, while IREN disclosed a five-year contract with 90% of GPU capex prepaid. Citi cut its 2027 DRAM supply/demand gap to -3.8%, and Walleye is shrinking its stock long/short unit while high-yield spreads widened 17bp.

Main narratives

day change
01

Gavin Baker says Texas's governor-elect will let all currently permitted data centers finish construction

Gavin Baker posted that Texas governor-elect Gina Hinojosa has said all currently permitted data centers will be allowed to finish construction, which he says covers 2027 and likely well into 2028. Newly permitted sites for 2028/2029 delivery would have to pay taxes, not raise consumer power prices, not affect water availability and use union labor. Meta's president said, per the WSJ, the midterm results will make data centers harder to build.

META -3.9%
02

IREN signed a five-year contract at about $22 million per MW with 90% of GPU capex prepaid

IREN CEO Daniel Roberts said that since quarter-end the company signed a five-year contract at about $22 million per megawatt with 90% of the GPU capex prepaid by the customer, and a short-term contract at $40 million per megawatt. Bloomberg reported, citing a person familiar with the matter, that Microsoft opted not to extend a contract with Nscale at a Texas data center, and separately that an anonymous seller is auctioning about $500 million of data-center loans.

IREN -7.6% · MSFT -3.9% · ORCL -6.3%
03

Citi eased its 2027 DRAM supply/demand gap to -3.8% from -8.7% as SanDisk and Micron fell double digits

Citi now projects 2027 DRAM supply growth of 24% against demand growth of 28%, versus 19% and 30% before, easing its supply/demand gap to -3.8% from -8.7%. iM Securities estimates the memory LTA cancellation trigger arises at a price decline of about 60%. TechInsights' Jeongdong Choe still puts supply at only about 85% of demand. Memory stocks fell for a second straight day, with SanDisk down 16.9% and Micron 13.0%.

MU -14.1% · SNDK -18.6%
04

Walleye is shrinking its stock long/short business, per Bloomberg, while high-yield spreads widened 17bp

Bloomberg reported from Walleye's client letter that the firm is streamlining its internal stock long/short business, returning part of its capital to investors and letting go its head of equities, per @thevalueist, who called it a managed shrink of one business rather than a whole-firm liquidation. @ces921 put the VIX at 27.8, above VIX3M, with IG spreads 3bp wider, high-yield spreads 17bp wider and hyperscaler spreads 1.4bp wider.

Themes of the session

?
Z-score shows how far this edition's mention count is above or below the theme's own average across 20 comparable earlier editions. +2.7σ means mentions are 2.7 standard deviations above that average — simply, the theme is being mentioned much more often than usual. It measures attention, not bullishness or expected return. Themes need at least 8 posts; gold begins at +2σ, and σ is hidden when history is too thin.
Mobility & Delivery +4.0σ
UBER -2.6% · LYFT -11.8% · DASH -8.4%
14 posts 7 voices base 2.5
Thematic ETFs +3.1σ
SMH -9.6% · SOXX -10.6% · SOXL -34.1%
+21 more XLF — · SKYY — · IBIT — · IGV — · XLY — · DRAM — · TQQQ — · XLP — · ARKK — · XLI — · KRE — · AIQ -6.7% · ITA — · XLE — · URA -6.1% · SOXS — · IBB — · XLV — · ORR — · SQQQ — · SPRX —
69 posts 45 voices base 33.9
AI Compute +3.0σ
NVDA -7.9% · AMD -14.5% · CBRS -9.8%
122 posts 94 voices base 59.9
Equity Indexes +2.8σ
QQQ -5.8% · SPY — · NQ —
+21 more ES=F — · NDX — · DIA -3.7% · SPX — · EWY -12.0% · NASDAQ — · SP500 — · IWM — · US500 — · RSP — · VGK — · DXJ -6.2% · EWJ -6.5% · MTUM — · SPHB — · VOO — · ES — · NIFTY50 — · NYSE — · VT — · EWU —
117 posts 66 voices base 54.4
Volatility +2.6σ
VIXY — · VIX — · VOLATILITY —
20 posts 12 voices base 4.1
Software & SaaS +1.7σ
PLTR -9.7% · APP +28.9% · U +22.4%
+12 more DDOG — · NOW — · SNOW — · NTNX — · ADBE — · CRM — · SAP — · PD — · ESTC — · MDB — · INOD — · IBM —
33 posts 21 voices base 17.2
NeoCloud +1.3σ
IREN -7.6% · NBIS -13.2% · CRWV -7.7%
+1 more APLD —
67 posts 36 voices base 42.6
Networking & Photonics +1.3σ
AAOI -26.1% · LITE -16.2% · CSCO -7.3%
+12 more CRDO — · SIVE — · ANET — · COHR — · AXTI — · MTSI — · RBBN — · NOK -9.2% · CIEN -12.9% · GLW — · HIMX — · LPTH -12.7%
49 posts 23 voices base 27.2
Capital Markets +0.9σ
GS -6.0% · APO -5.6% · BX -4.8%
+11 more ASST — · OWL — · NLCP — · MS — · BRK.B — · CRBG — · ICE — · ARCC — · ARES — · MFIC — · IEP —
15 posts 11 voices base 10.4
Commodities +0.4σ
GLD +0.7% · USO +2.4% · WTI +2.4%
+9 more SLV — · BNO — · COPPER -5.7% · GOLD — · UGA — · SILVER — · CL — · UNG -0.1% · HO=F —
31 posts 26 voices base 27.1
Clean Energy +0.4σ
BE -13.1% · TE -15.4% · FSLR +1.2%
10 posts 10 voices base 7.2
Memory & Storage +0.3σ
MU -14.1% · SNDK -18.6% · SKHY -12.1%
+5 more 005930.KS — · WDC — · STX — · RMBS — · SIMO —
36 posts 19 voices base 31.2
Crypto Assets +0.2σ
BTC -5.9% · HYPE -7.1% · ZEC -2.3%
+14 more ETH — · LIT — · BNB — · ETHFI — · XPL — · RUNE — · KNTQ — · UP — · USDC — · XMR — · DOGE — · INJ — · NEAR — · SOL —
46 posts 34 voices base 40.9
Autos & EV -0.0σ
TSLA -10.1% · VWAGY +0.4% · AEVA -3.7%
+4 more STLA — · TM — · DAN — · BMW —
19 posts 10 voices base 19.1
Positioning Market Radar →

Buying / adding

3 positions · 3 voices

Galaxy's CEO is buying more Galaxy stock

Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) quoted Galaxy's CEO saying there is a massive disconnect between where Galaxy trades and what the company is worth, and that the CEO is buying more stock starting today; Galaxy says 800 MW at its Texas Helios site is leased under long-term contract.

@aleabitoreddit Alpha #10 81 smart
$GLXY CEO after pushing back on Texas political uncertainty:
GLXY
7d before-28.4%
since call +5.2%

@crypto_condom bought BB, LEU, LPTH and SPCX while heavily hedged

@crypto_condom disclosed buying BB at $8.11 and $8.28, LEU at $87.1, LPTH at $6.11 and SPCX at $122.69 and $127.69, expecting some mean reversion in the next week while keeping a lower bias of NQ 23.2k over the next year or so.

@crypto_condom Alpha #59 28 smart
Today I’ve bought: $BB $8.11 & $8.28 $LEU $87.1 $lpth $6.11 $SPCX $122.69 & $127.69 My bias is lower (NQ
BB
7d before-8.9%
since call -0.5%
LEU
7d before-19.5%
since call -0.0%
LPTH
7d before-26.0%
since call +0.8%
SPCX
7d before-14.3%
since call +2.6%

Selective / waiting

2 positions · 2 voices

Fading / not buying

2 positions · 2 voices
YouTube
54 videos · 22h 48m Russell Clark said he is cautious about shorting the AI build-out, while MacroVoices and The Market Huddle questioned the drop in oil's geopolitical risk premium. Open the desk →
X
2168 posts Gavin Baker said Texas's governor-elect will let currently permitted data centers finish, and IREN's CEO disclosed a five-year contract with 90% of GPU capex prepaid. Open the desk →
Reddit
770 threads Value posts pitched TTM Technologies, Build-A-Bear and Beachbody, and one r/ETFs post put QQQ about 15.8% above its fair-value estimate. Open the desk →
Substack
6 letters Nonconsensus closed its peaking-nominal-growth trade after 10-year yields fell about 30bp, and Capital Flows said systemic risks existed before the Democratic sweep. Open the desk →