AR ARES Ares Management Corporation Loading... : Bullish and Bearish Analyst Opinions

A news wire reports a broad list of price target raises across dozens of stocks from multiple.

Reports Ares raised its largest flagship credit fund in three years.

Private credit demand boosts Ares.

Management is confident in achieving its long-term growth targets, driven by record fundraising, a strong deployment pipeline, and margin improvements, positioning the company for continued growth.

Reports M&A talks, fundamental corporate development, no directional view expressed.

Short Ares, Blackstone; long Blue Owl

Commercial loan growth was driven by private credit funds actively utilizing subscription and fund finance facilities, with CFG taking left-lead roles and increasing exposure by ~$800 million in one quarter. — Indicates strong draws on credit lines by private credit funds to deploy capital, signaling rapid deployment and high activity in the private credit sector.

Refi risk hits KKR, APO, ARES.

Watch these financial services beneficiaries of the GAI buildout; no author position disclosed.

Watch as beneficiaries of AI infrastructure financing.

Large alternative asset managers will keep winning

Long ARES gaining from the shift of AI compute contracts into a new collateral category similar.

Long alternative asset managers as AI infrastructure financing emerges as a new institutional.

Reports Ares raised a record $30B in Q1, dismissing private-credit and AI disruption concerns.

Long alternative asset managers as behind-the-meter AI power becomes a new private.

Spreads on cash-flow lending to private credit have widened ~50 bps on new production due to the 'scare' in the asset class, even though PNC's own exposure is tiny. — Wider spreads improve risk-adjusted returns for banks and CLO investors, but signal tightening liquidity/greater caution among direct lenders, which could slow deal flow for private credit funds.

Wells Fargo's deep dive on its $210B non-bank financials book shows private-credit exposure is overwhelmingly first-lien secured with sub-60% advance rates, implying roughly 40% collateral loss absorption before any bank loss. — Bank appetite for private-credit fund leverage is structurally supported by strong collateral cushions, a positive for the funding and leverage capacity of large private-credit managers.

Speaker explicitly stated a preference to "lean" into StepStone and Ares due to their "faster growth" and "growth and value driven" models. These alternative asset managers have less reliance on the challenged wealth channel for private credit and are better positioned in institutional or other faster-growing market segments. Long due to superior growth prospects and business model differentiation within the asset manager space. A broader downturn in private market activity or spread widening that impacts all asset managers uniformly.

Whalen describes private credit as a "slow-motion trainwreck" with redemptions, reputation damage, and a potential "Lehman moment" for firms like Apollo, Ares, and Blue Owl. These firms face liquidity issues due to illiquid strategies, public scrutiny, and reliance on bank credit lines; Washington regulators are ignoring the problem, exacerbating risks. Avoid due to high redemption pressures, liquidity risks, and regulatory neglect, which could lead to defaults or severe losses. If regulators intervene or market conditions stabilize, the situation might improve.

Ares Capital limiting investor withdrawals, cited as evidence of spreading stress in private.

Leyla states she is "watching the equity of the asset managers" like Blackstone, Ares, and Apollo, noting that sentiment is very negative and fee revenue is likely to decline as assets under management in their semi-liquid funds shrink due to outflows. These alternative asset managers' revenues are tied to fees from capital managed. The current redemption crisis in their semi-liquid private credit funds threatens to shrink that asset base. Extreme negative sentiment may have created a potential opportunity. WATCH because the negative catalyst (fee pressure) is clear and present, but extreme pessimism may have created a future entry point. It is not yet a buy signal. Outflows could be more severe and prolonged than expected, leading to greater fee erosion. The equity may not be cheap enough to compensate for the fundamental pressure.

The speaker explicitly states that firms like Blackstone, KKR, and Ares have grown from managing $40 million to nearly a trillion dollars, a result of structural change in the marketplace that is continuing. This structural change (growth in private markets, capital formation, consolidation) rewards good work with more work—specifically, managing more money. Size in private markets is not the enemy of performance but enhances it through greater resources and relevance. The firms at the center of this secular trend are positioned for continued disproportionate growth and success. A severe, prolonged market downturn that disrupts the ability to originate good investments and manage risk effectively.

Speaker discusses Apollo (APO), Blackstone (BX), and Ares (ARES) as potential bottom-fishing candidates in the beaten-down private capital space. Notes they were top gainers in the S&P on the day of recording. These stocks are down significantly (e.g., BX down ~40%) despite forward EPS estimates near all-time highs, creating a disconnect. The core business issue is an expected terrible fundraising environment in 2026, not necessarily widespread defaults in current holdings. The group is worth monitoring for a potential bounce if the private credit panic subsides and the feared systemic spillover does not materialize. Apollo is highlighted as potentially being more cautious and better positioned. The private credit/equity marks are indeed wrong, leading to significant NAV declines and sustained investor outflows, creating a vicious cycle.

Highlights unexplained valuation gain in Ares Commercial Finance.

"You see the big private credit sponsors. Their stock prices have declined significantly right look at companies like Aries and you also hear all sorts of headlines about investors in private credited funds trying to withdraw." AI is rapidly disrupting the middle-market software businesses that many private credit funds and Business Development Companies (BDCs) lend to. This fundamental deterioration is sparking investor panic and redemption requests, which will continue to pressure the equity valuations of publicly traded private credit sponsors. AVOID because even though the structure prevents a systemic bank run, the equity tranches of these BDCs will absorb the loan losses and suffer from negative sentiment. The disruption to software companies is overstated, and the high dividend yields of BDCs attract aggressive dip-buying from retail investors.

Buy ARES as a contrarian dislocation play; author initiates a 1% position at current levels.

"Aries fell today by 4.8%. KKR fell by 3.2%. This as Jp morgan Chase is said to be restricting some lending to private credit funds." Major prime brokers restricting lending to private credit funds chokes off their leverage and liquidity, severely impacting the business models and return profiles of alternative asset managers. AVOID ARES, KKR, and OWL due to tightening credit conditions from major Wall Street banks. JPMorgan reverses its policy, or alternative asset managers successfully secure alternative sources of leverage.

Things like Owl and Ares and KKR and all these big private credit names really selling off... I'm looking at some of this selloff as being a little overdone. The market is mispricing private credit risk by incorrectly comparing it to the 2008 bank leverage cycle. Without a broad economic recession or surging corporate defaults, the massive 40-50% selloff in these alternative asset managers presents a deep-value entry point. Go long top-tier private credit and alternative asset managers that have been unfairly punished by macro fears. If the US economy enters a severe recession, corporate defaults will spike, leading to actual structural losses and liquidity gates in private credit funds.

The author identifies two dividend stocks, ARES and WES, as undervalued bargains.

"Private equity firms are stuck with assets that are now going on kind of seven years... Secondary funds have the ability to step in and really capitalize on this current dynamic." The "Liquidity Crunch" in private equity forces GPs and LPs to sell stakes at discounts. The largest players in the Secondaries market (Blackstone's Strategic Partners, Carlyle's AlpInvest, Ares' Landmark, KKR) are the buyers of choice. They get assets at a discount and are the solution to the industry's liquidity problem. Long the alternative asset managers with dominant Secondary platforms. A severe recession could mark down the underlying portfolio values (NAV) of the assets they are buying, regardless of the entry discount.