KKR's Henry McVey talks navigating market anxiety amid geopolitical tensions
Summary
- KKR expects robust global growth despite geopolitical anxiety, driven by a "regime change" toward higher deficits, sticky inflation, and a messy energy transition.
- The "Security of Everything" is the top concern for CEOs: securing power, data, and logistics chains.
- India is highlighted as a standout opportunity with 10-11% nominal GDP growth, specifically in infrastructure as the government privatizes assets.
- A "BlackRock moment" is predicted for Private Credit: the industry will consolidate from 20 players to 5 dominant firms as defaults rise and scale becomes necessary for recovery rates.
Trade Ideas
McVey argues we are in a "regime change" favoring real assets (infrastructure/real estate) and that Private Credit is undergoing massive consolidation ("went from 20 players to five"). He notes defaults will rise, making scale and recovery capabilities critical. In a consolidating market with rising defaults, the largest players with the best origination and workout teams win market share from smaller, weaker funds. Additionally, these firms are the primary aggregators of the "hard assets" (infrastructure) McVey recommends for an inflationary environment. Long the "Big 4" Alternative Asset Managers who benefit from the consolidation and demand for real assets. A severe global recession causing a liquidity crisis in private markets; regulatory crackdowns on non-bank lending.
Henry McVey
KKR Global Macro and Asset Allocation Head
CEOs are telling KKR their #1 focus is "Security of Everything," specifically explicitly stating: "Make sure that my power works." To ensure power reliability and redundancy for data centers and logistics, companies must upgrade electrical infrastructure. This directly benefits companies that provide power management hardware (Eaton, Vertiv) and grid engineering/construction (Quanta Services). Long Power Infrastructure & Grid Modernization plays. Supply chain constraints delaying projects; government spending cuts on infrastructure.
Henry McVey
KKR Global Macro and Asset Allocation Head
Regarding AI, McVey warns against the "if you build it, they will come" speculation. Instead, he explicitly advises finding "contracted cash flow" within the Data Center/AI theme. Data Center REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) operate on long-term leases (contracted cash flows) with hyperscalers (Microsoft, Google, etc.). They represent the safe, rent-collecting side of the AI boom rather than the speculative hardware side. Long Data Center REITs as the "contracted cash flow" play on AI. Overbuilding in the data center space leading to lower rental rates; higher interest rates hurting REIT valuations.
Morgan Brennan
Anchor (CNBC)
News intro mentions Moderna settled litigation with two smaller biotechs for $950 million but will *not* pay future royalties. Shares were up ~10% on the news. The settlement removes a legal overhang and the lack of future royalties preserves long-term margins. Watch for continuation of the momentum as legal uncertainty clears. Declining demand for mRNA vaccines post-COVID; pipeline execution risks.
Henry McVey
KKR Global Macro and Asset Allocation Head
McVey just returned from India and highlights that their economy is growing "10 to 11%" on a nominal basis. He notes the government is actively moving assets off their balance sheet to raise tax revenue. High nominal growth combined with privatization is a perfect recipe for equity market appreciation. KKR is aggressively investing there, signaling institutional confidence. Long India ETFs to capture the high nominal GDP growth and infrastructure boom. Currency devaluation (Rupee vs Dollar); political volatility or regulatory changes in India.
Up Next
This CNBC video, published March 03, 2026, features Henry McVey, Morgan Brennan discussing KKR, BX, APO, ARES, PWR, ETN, VRT, EQIX, DLR, MRNA, EPI, INDA. 5 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Henry McVey, Morgan Brennan · Tickers: KKR, BX, APO, ARES, PWR, ETN, VRT, EQIX, DLR, MRNA, EPI, INDA