Calls
51
#67
Alpha Score 93.5
Michael Batnick
Managing Partner, Ritholtz Wealth Management
Win Rate
54.9%
return
+3.9%
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Ticker
Side
Mentions
First Call
Call Price
P&L
Thesis
Theme
Source
Long
Feb 18
$77.99
-11.4%
Michael mentioned he "finally pulled the trigger" on Netflix during a drawdown. Despite the competitive landscape, Netflix has won the streaming wars. The thesis parallels the "prediction market" consolidation where too much competition eventually favors the dominant incumbent. Long the winner of the streaming sector. Consumer spending slowdown or saturation in subscriber growth.
Michael mentioned he "finally pulled the trigger" on Netflix during a drawdown. Despite the competitive landscape, Netflix has won the streaming wars. The thesis parallels the "prediction market" consolidation where too much competition eventually favors the dominant incumbent. Long the winner of the streaming sector. Consumer spending slowdown or saturation in subscriber growth.
Streaming
Long
Feb 11
$404.37
-2.6%
Software stocks have crashed violently (IGV -33%, MSFT -25% wiping out $357B). There was a "panic liquidation" and "puke" in volume on Thursday. While the long-term moat of SaaS is legitimately threatened by AI coding agents (deflationary pressure), the short-term sell-off is an emotional overreaction. When a sector is "held underwater" this long and sellers exhaust, it acts like a buoy and pops back up. Buy the panic for a tactical bounce. The structural bear case (AI replaces SaaS) is true; margins compress permanently.
Software stocks have crashed violently (IGV -33%, MSFT -25% wiping out $357B). There was a "panic liquidation" and "puke" in volume on Thursday. While the long-term moat of SaaS is legitimately threatened by AI coding agents (deflationary pressure), the short-term sell-off is an emotional overreaction. When a sector is "held underwater" this long and sellers exhaust, it acts like a buoy and pops back up. Buy the panic for a tactical bounce. The structural bear case (AI replaces SaaS) is true; margins compress permanently.
Hyperscalers
Long
Feb 11
$133.47
-4.9%
Alternative asset managers like Blackstone (BX), KKR, and Blue Owl (OWL) have sold off (OWL down ~50%) due to fears over their Private Credit exposure to software companies. The market is pricing in a systemic failure of software loans within private credit portfolios. Michael views this contagion fear as "way overdone" for the top-tier managers. Blackstone specifically is a "screaming buy" at these levels. Significant defaults in private software loans.
Alternative asset managers like Blackstone (BX), KKR, and Blue Owl (OWL) have sold off (OWL down ~50%) due to fears over their Private Credit exposure to software companies. The market is pricing in a systemic failure of software loans within private credit portfolios. Michael views this contagion fear as "way overdone" for the top-tier managers. Blackstone specifically is a "screaming buy" at these levels. Significant defaults in private software loans.
Capital Markets
Long
Jun 09
$194.08
-2.2%
The top 50% of consumers by income continue to spend heavily on travel, making hotel stocks a better proxy for stock-market Americans than restaurants. Marriott, Hilton, and Hyatt show steady demand and high occupancy, indicating the consumer that matters is still strong.
Gaming & Leisure
Long
Apr 22
$708.08
+4.9%
The stock market makes perfect sense because the headwinds that were holding it back have receded, earnings growth is accelerating, and investors who were underallocated are now chasing the market.
Equity Indexes
Long
Apr 21
$276.00
+6.4%
Small cap stocks are breaking out after a multi-year bear market, with the Russell 2000 showing a clean technical breakout. This move represents a handoff from the AI hyperscaler capex theme to the beneficiary theme, as small companies are the customers for AI spending and are more sensitive to eventual rate cuts. Micro caps have also rallied furiously, up 75% over the past year.
Equity Indexes
Long
Apr 01
$576.26
+11.1%
Michael Batnick explicitly stated that at current valuations, such as Facebook trading at 16 times forward earnings, if you can hold stocks like Facebook and Microsoft for a couple of years, you will make money. Valuations have compressed due to market concerns over AI investments increasing capital intensity, but this derisking creates a long-term opportunity as earnings continue to grow. LONG because the stocks are considered cheap relative to earnings potential, and historical patterns suggest rebounds after drawdowns for mega-cap tech names. AI investments may fail to generate expected returns, leading to sustained earnings pressure or further multiple contraction, especially in an economic downturn.
Michael Batnick explicitly stated that at current valuations, such as Facebook trading at 16 times forward earnings, if you can hold stocks like Facebook and Microsoft for a couple of years, you will make money. Valuations have compressed due to market concerns over AI investments increasing capital intensity, but this derisking creates a long-term opportunity as earnings continue to grow. LONG because the stocks are considered cheap relative to earnings potential, and historical patterns suggest rebounds after drawdowns for mega-cap tech names. AI investments may fail to generate expected returns, leading to sustained earnings pressure or further multiple contraction, especially in an economic downturn.
Hyperscalers
Long
Mar 04
$41.16
-3.5%
IMAX releases earned 58 Academy Award nominations and delivered 20% of the domestic opening for major films (up from 10% pre-COVID). The "Premium Experience" thesis is validating. As people go to fewer movies, they choose high-quality formats (IMAX) when they do go. The company is gaining market share despite a shrinking overall theater industry. Long via the "flight to quality" in entertainment. General decline in box office attendance.
IMAX releases earned 58 Academy Award nominations and delivered 20% of the domestic opening for major films (up from 10% pre-COVID). The "Premium Experience" thesis is validating. As people go to fewer movies, they choose high-quality formats (IMAX) when they do go. The company is gaining market share despite a shrinking overall theater industry. Long via the "flight to quality" in entertainment. General decline in box office attendance.
Gaming & Leisure
Long
Feb 24
$95.72
+5.7%
Alternative asset managers are in 30-40% drawdowns (e.g., Blackstone down 42% from highs). Sentiment is at rock bottom due to fears over private credit valuations and "hidden cockroaches." Michael argues these are "illustrious" firms with massive staying power (Blackstone is the "BlackRock of Private Equity"). The market is pricing in a 2008-style collapse, but actual distress is not yet visible in the data. He views this as a sentiment disconnect. Long the top-tier Alternative Managers as a contrarian value play. (Michael explicitly bought BX and owns CG). Actual systemic credit events or fraud (like the "cockroaches" Jamie Dimon warned about) could validate the sell-off.
Alternative asset managers are in 30-40% drawdowns (e.g., Blackstone down 42% from highs). Sentiment is at rock bottom due to fears over private credit valuations and "hidden cockroaches." Michael argues these are "illustrious" firms with massive staying power (Blackstone is the "BlackRock of Private Equity"). The market is pricing in a 2008-style collapse, but actual distress is not yet visible in the data. He views this as a sentiment disconnect. Long the top-tier Alternative Managers as a contrarian value play. (Michael explicitly bought BX and owns CG). Actual systemic credit events or fraud (like the "cockroaches" Jamie Dimon warned about) could validate the sell-off.
Capital Markets
Long
Feb 18
$187.79
-9.1%
Software stocks like Salesforce and ServiceNow have crashed recently due to fears that AI will replace their business models (the "AI killing SaaS" narrative). The market is over-extrapolating. Enterprise buyers don't just buy software for features; they buy it for "career risk" management (i.e., "You don't get fired for buying Salesforce"). Incumbents have distribution, data, and support teams that a "vibecoded app" created over a weekend cannot replicate. Michael bought these stocks during the drawdown, viewing the valuation compression as an overreaction to the AI threat. The stocks could remain "dead money" for years if the market refuses to re-rate them higher, or if AI actually does erode their seat-based pricing models faster than anticipated.
Software stocks like Salesforce and ServiceNow have crashed recently due to fears that AI will replace their business models (the "AI killing SaaS" narrative). The market is over-extrapolating. Enterprise buyers don't just buy software for features; they buy it for "career risk" management (i.e., "You don't get fired for buying Salesforce"). Incumbents have distribution, data, and support teams that a "vibecoded app" created over a weekend cannot replicate. Michael bought these stocks during the drawdown, viewing the valuation compression as an overreaction to the AI threat. The stocks could remain "dead money" for years if the market refuses to re-rate them higher, or if AI actually does erode their seat-based pricing models faster than anticipated.
AI Software
Long
Feb 18
$107.81
-4.4%
Software stocks like Salesforce and ServiceNow have crashed recently due to fears that AI will replace their business models (the "AI killing SaaS" narrative). The market is over-extrapolating. Enterprise buyers don't just buy software for features; they buy it for "career risk" management (i.e., "You don't get fired for buying Salesforce"). Incumbents have distribution, data, and support teams that a "vibecoded app" created over a weekend cannot replicate. Michael bought these stocks during the drawdown, viewing the valuation compression as an overreaction to the AI threat. The stocks could remain "dead money" for years if the market refuses to re-rate them higher, or if AI actually does erode their seat-based pricing models faster than anticipated.
Software stocks like Salesforce and ServiceNow have crashed recently due to fears that AI will replace their business models (the "AI killing SaaS" narrative). The market is over-extrapolating. Enterprise buyers don't just buy software for features; they buy it for "career risk" management (i.e., "You don't get fired for buying Salesforce"). Incumbents have distribution, data, and support teams that a "vibecoded app" created over a weekend cannot replicate. Michael bought these stocks during the drawdown, viewing the valuation compression as an overreaction to the AI threat. The stocks could remain "dead money" for years if the market refuses to re-rate them higher, or if AI actually does erode their seat-based pricing models faster than anticipated.
AI Software
Long
Feb 18
$419.38
+5.9%
Michael distinguishes between software companies with "proprietary data/regulatory lock-in" versus those without. While generic data providers (like FactSet) might be at risk from LLMs, S&P Global has a regulatory moat. An AI cannot issue a credit rating that satisfies regulatory requirements; only a licensed agency can. Michael explicitly stated he plans to buy SPGI, viewing it as immune to the disruption facing generic SaaS. Regulatory changes or a shift in how credit analysis is consumed.
Michael distinguishes between software companies with "proprietary data/regulatory lock-in" versus those without. While generic data providers (like FactSet) might be at risk from LLMs, S&P Global has a regulatory moat. An AI cannot issue a credit rating that satisfies regulatory requirements; only a licensed agency can. Michael explicitly stated he plans to buy SPGI, viewing it as immune to the disruption facing generic SaaS. Regulatory changes or a shift in how credit analysis is consumed.
Capital Markets
Long
Feb 11
$67082.52
-3.5%
Bitcoin crashed to the $60k range, and sentiment is described as "the worst ever." Put volume and share volume spiked, indicating capitulation. This is a classic "liquidation break." Michael prefers buying into panic selling where sellers are exhausted. Tactical long (bought IBIT at $66k). Plan to sell on a bounce to $72k or stop out at $63k. If it crashes to $50k, he would buy for the long term. Crypto continues to trade like a high-beta software stock (correlation with IGV is high).
Bitcoin crashed to the $60k range, and sentiment is described as "the worst ever." Put volume and share volume spiked, indicating capitulation. This is a classic "liquidation break." Michael prefers buying into panic selling where sellers are exhausted. Tactical long (bought IBIT at $66k). Plan to sell on a bounce to $72k or stop out at $63k. If it crashes to $50k, he would buy for the long term. Crypto continues to trade like a high-beta software stock (correlation with IGV is high).
Crypto Assets
Long
Feb 11
$83.23
+11.6%
Software stocks have crashed violently (IGV -33%, MSFT -25% wiping out $357B). There was a "panic liquidation" and "puke" in volume on Thursday. While the long-term moat of SaaS is legitimately threatened by AI coding agents (deflationary pressure), the short-term sell-off is an emotional overreaction. When a sector is "held underwater" this long and sellers exhaust, it acts like a buoy and pops back up. Buy the panic for a tactical bounce. The structural bear case (AI replaces SaaS) is true; margins compress permanently.
Software stocks have crashed violently (IGV -33%, MSFT -25% wiping out $357B). There was a "panic liquidation" and "puke" in volume on Thursday. While the long-term moat of SaaS is legitimately threatened by AI coding agents (deflationary pressure), the short-term sell-off is an emotional overreaction. When a sector is "held underwater" this long and sellers exhaust, it acts like a buoy and pops back up. Buy the panic for a tactical bounce. The structural bear case (AI replaces SaaS) is true; margins compress permanently.
Thematic ETFs
Long
Jul 15
$110.17
-0.4%
The S&P 500 ex-Technology Index (SPXT) has broken out to a new all-time high, signaling broad market participation beyond tech stocks and indicating that the bull market is expanding into other sectors.
Equity Indexes
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Michael Batnick has 51 trade ideas tracked on Buzzberg across 50 tickers since November 2025. Win rate 55% across 51 evaluated calls, average return +3.9%. Ranked #67 on the Buzzberg Alpha leaderboard. Most covered: NFLX, MSFT, BX.
