Garrett Baldwin 1.6 9 ideas

These stocks (KKR, Aries Management, CBRE, Huntington Bancshares) are explicitly on Garrett's "negative momentum" breakdown list. When stocks fall below key moving averages (20/50 day) and lack insider buying support, they enter a liquidation phase. The "Private Credit is Subprime" narrative, while debatable fundamentally, is driving price action downward in these names. Short/Avoid until momentum stabilizes or insiders step in. A sudden Fed pivot or "QE" announcement would squeeze financials higher immediately.

Blackstone Minerals (BSM) is a "choke point" asset that owns mineral rights/royalties rather than just operations. In an inflationary or "end of times" geopolitical environment, you want to own assets that kick off cash without heavy capex. BSM pays an ~8% yield and is highly capital efficient. Long as a cash-flowing inflation hedge. A collapse in energy prices would directly impact royalty payouts.

The Trade Desk (TTD) was on the "breakdown list" but recently saw significant insider buying. When a stock falls off the negative momentum list and insiders immediately step in to buy, it signals a high-probability reversal. Long (Momentum Reversal). If the stock falls back onto the breakdown list, the trade is invalidated.

Campbell Soup (CPB), Brown-Forman (BF.B), and Genuine Parts (GPC) are on the active breakdown list with "perfect downtrends." These are classic value traps. Despite being "defensive," they are failing to catch a bid even during a rotation into staples, signaling deep fundamental or structural issues (e.g., Gen Alpha not eating canned soup). Short/Avoid. Sector rotation into deep value could trigger a dead-cat bounce.