Josh Brown

"I did that same trade with Exxon at 119... I'm starting to think about Exxon maybe being a long-term holding." The strength of the move in a mega-cap like Exxon suggests a regime change. Brown views this not just as a trade, but potentially the start of a 7-year bull market in energy, prompting a shift from "trading with stops" to "investing for the long haul." Long-term hold. Global energy demand destruction or regulatory shifts.

"Apple could be the stock of the year... They are going to launch an Agentic Siri this year... telling Siri to go into the hundreds of apps on your phone and do things across those apps." Apple has underperformed due to a lack of "AI hype," but they own the distribution (2 billion devices). By launching an "Agentic" AI that controls other apps, they make standalone LLMs (like ChatGPT) features rather than platforms. They avoided massive CapEx spend and are positioned to capture the consumer AI interface. LONG Apple as a contrarian AI play with a major catalyst (Agentic Siri) expected in May or September. If the AI launch underwhelms or Siri remains "useless" compared to competitors.

Investors are fleeing asset-light businesses due to AI disruption fears. Brown identifies "HALO" stocks (Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence) as the new leadership. An LLM cannot replicate a physical bag of Fritos (Pepsi), refine gasoline (Valero), or pour concrete (Martin Marietta). These companies have "moats of physics" that AI cannot cross. LONG. These sectors (Energy, Industrials, Staples) are seeing massive inflows as "refugees" from the SaaS crash seek safety in non-disruptible cash flows. Some names (like KO) are becoming technically overbought (RSI 85+), suggesting a short-term pullback is likely within a longer uptrend.

Investors are fleeing asset-light businesses due to AI disruption fears. Brown identifies "HALO" stocks (Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence) as the new leadership. An LLM cannot replicate a physical bag of Fritos (Pepsi), refine gasoline (Valero), or pour concrete (Martin Marietta). These companies have "moats of physics" that AI cannot cross. LONG. These sectors (Energy, Industrials, Staples) are seeing massive inflows as "refugees" from the SaaS crash seek safety in non-disruptible cash flows. Some names (like KO) are becoming technically overbought (RSI 85+), suggesting a short-term pullback is likely within a longer uptrend.

Josh explicitly stated, "I bought IGV today." He notes that software stocks have seen liquidation-level selling (down 18% in 7 days), a magnitude only seen during the 2008 crisis and the 2022 crash. This is a "falling knife" trade based on market structure, not necessarily fundamentals. When a specific sector is liquidated indiscriminately while the broader market holds up, it often signals a short-term capitulation bottom. LONG (Tactical/Contrarian). The "AI displacement" thesis could be structurally true, meaning these software companies are value traps that will continue to lose pricing power.

Speaker is long NVDA for over 10 years and states "I think it's going to 250." Calls it "the best company in the world" and "one of the cheapest stocks in tech." Highlights the "inference inflection" as a key shift from training to permanent, utility-like AI usage. The stock has consolidated for ~6 months near its 200-day moving average, digesting past gains. The GTC event emphasized the shift to inference and physical-world AI applications (robotics, autonomous vehicles), expanding the TAM beyond data center training. Expects a breakout higher from the consolidation pattern as uncertainties clear and the inference-driven growth story becomes clearer, with no specific news catalyst needed. Competition from lower-cost alternatives (e.g., Google TPUs, AMD) for inference workloads, and a potential pullback in data center financing which would directly hit orders.

Investors are dumping vertical SaaS names (like Toast and Service Titan) on the fear that AI will allow customers to build their own software solutions. This is "Second-Order Thinking" gone wrong. Blue-collar industries (carpenters, restaurants) will not stop using purpose-built software to code their own billing systems via AI. These "System of Record" companies are sticky and essential. LONG. The selling is emotional and disconnected from the reality of how businesses operate. Long-term pricing power erosion if AI agents commoditize software features.

"I am calling those the Halo stocks... heavy assets low obsolescence risk... Can Claude whip up a can of Diet Pepsi? No." In an AI-disrupted world, capital flees replicable code and flows to tangible, physical assets that AI cannot generate. Companies that move atoms (airlines, manufacturers, staples) have a moat that software companies no longer possess. Long "Halo Stocks" (Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence). Global recession reducing demand for physical goods/commodities.

"I am calling those the Halo stocks... heavy assets low obsolescence risk... Can Claude whip up a can of Diet Pepsi? No." In an AI-disrupted world, capital flees replicable code and flows to tangible, physical assets that AI cannot generate. Companies that move atoms (airlines, manufacturers, staples) have a moat that software companies no longer possess. Long "Halo Stocks" (Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence). Global recession reducing demand for physical goods/commodities.

Semiconductors have outperformed software stocks since the March 30th market low, declining less during the downturn and recovering more during the bounce, with comparable or better valuations, indicating that the primary trend favors semiconductors over software, so investors should avoid chasing the recent bounce in beaten-down software names.

Speaker owns "a lot" of UBER and believes it will break its downtrend. Details a series of recent autonomous vehicle partnerships (Zoox/Amazon, Nissan/Waabi, Nvidia) that integrate potential competitors' fleets onto the Uber network. Uber's app becomes the aggregation platform for multiple autonomous vehicle providers (backed by major tech and auto companies), securing its position in the future market against Waymo and Tesla. The stock is exceptionally cheap (bottom quintile of S&P 500 P/E) while growth expectations (~36%) are triple the market median. The combination of strategic positioning for autonomy and deep value relative to growth makes the stock a compelling long. The recent partnership news is a catalyst for the stock to bottom and move higher. Execution risks on autonomous partnerships; competitive threat from Waymo/Google's direct integration into mapping apps remains potent.

CrowdStrike reported strong earnings ($5.25B ARR, +24% YoY) but the stock didn't rally massively due to guidance. The market realized that AI (Anthropic/LLMs) doesn't solve cybersecurity; in fact, more AI workloads create *more* endpoints that need Falcon's protection. Long-term hold. The pullback offers a chance to own the "platform winner" in cyber, similar to how semi-cap equipment consolidated to 3 players. Valuation remains high (20x sales); guidance must be perfect to sustain the multiple.

Newmont Mining pulled back to its long-term moving average within a powerful uptrend. This is a classic technical setup: a stock in a secular bull market revisiting support due to an exogenous event (market volatility). Buy the dip. It is a low-risk, high-reward entry point at the moving average. Gold prices reversing or the stock failing to hold the moving average support.

Software stocks were decimated (down ~60% in some cases) on fears that AI would replace them, but are now stabilizing/bouncing (Intuit +22% in 5 days). The "AI kills SaaS" narrative was overdone. Incumbents like Toast (restaurant billing) and ServiceTitan (trades billing) own the workflow and will likely be the ones to *deliver* AI features to their verticals, not be replaced by them. Buy the rotation. The market is realizing these business models are not obsolete. If these stocks roll over and make new lows, the "AI disruption" thesis might actually be valid, leading to a much deeper selloff.

Josh observes that while the S&P 500 is flat, "Halo" sectors (Energy, Materials, Industrials, Staples, Utilities) are significantly outperforming. He notes oil majors like OXY, XOM, and CVX are re-rating higher (e.g., XOM PE went from 14 to 22). AI introduces "obsolescence risk" to asset-light tech companies. Conversely, physical industries ("Heavy Assets") cannot be easily disrupted by LLMs. Capital is fleeing uncertainty in tech for the safety of tangible economy stocks. Long the "Halo" trade—sectors with physical moats and low AI disruption risk. A sudden deflationary bust or recession could hurt cyclical heavy industries (Energy/Materials).