How to build an investing playbook at record highs

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  April 16, 2026 at 18:55  |  10:50  |  CNBC
Speakers
Carrie Firestone — Investment Committee Member
Josh Brown — CEO, Ritholtz Wealth Management
Jim Lebenthal — Partner, Cetera Investment Management
Scott Wapner — Host, CNBC

Summary

The Investment Committee debates how to build portfolios as markets hit record highs, focusing on the resilience of technology stocks to oil prices, the outperformance of semiconductors over software, and the outlook for specific holdings like Microsoft. Divergent views emerge on whether to chase beaten-down software names or stick with winning sectors. The discussion highlights earnings, particularly from mega-cap tech, as a key test for the market's continued strength.

  • Markets are at record highs, prompting debate on investment strategies.
  • Technology stocks are seen as resilient to oil price spikes due to low energy consumption.
  • Semiconductors have outperformed software stocks since the March low, with better price action.
  • Some advise against chasing beaten-down software names despite recent bounces.
  • Microsoft is defended as a leader with expected financial improvement.
  • Consumer sentiment divergence from stock prices is noted but not directly tradable.
  • Earnings from mega-cap tech and their ecosystems are crucial for market direction.
  • Valuation recalibration between sectors has occurred but is not a clear trade thesis.
Trade Ideas
Carrie Firestone Investment Committee Member 4:24
Big tech resilient to oil price spikes.
Technology stocks, especially the biggest names, are resilient to oil price spikes because they consume very little oil (only 0.5% of total U.S. oil need) and are crucial for market movement, making them attractive in the current environment of record highs and energy volatility.
XLK HIGH
Josh Brown CEO, Ritholtz Wealth Management 5:39
Semiconductors outperform software; avoid software.
Semiconductors have outperformed software stocks since the March 30th market low, declining less during the downturn and recovering more during the bounce, with comparable or better valuations, indicating that the primary trend favors semiconductors over software, so investors should avoid chasing the recent bounce in beaten-down software names.
SMH HIGH
Josh Brown CEO, Ritholtz Wealth Management 5:39
Semiconductors outperform software; avoid software.
Semiconductors have outperformed software stocks since the March 30th market low, declining less during the downturn and recovering more during the bounce, with comparable or better valuations, indicating that the primary trend favors semiconductors over software, so investors should avoid chasing the recent bounce in beaten-down software names.
IGV HIGH
Carrie Firestone Investment Committee Member 8:22
Microsoft leadership justifies holding.
Microsoft remains a leader in its vertical with ubiquitous products like Outlook, and despite recent weakness, it is expected to show better financial numbers, making it a worthwhile holding for long-term investors.
MSFT MED
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This CNBC video, published April 16, 2026, features Carrie Firestone, Josh Brown discussing XLK, SMH, IGV, MSFT. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Carrie Firestone, Josh Brown  · Tickers: XLK, SMH, IGV, MSFT