Scott Wapner 2.6 9 ideas

"JP Morgan's trading desk is making a tactically bearish call this morning. Long energy and energy stocks and short equities." The ongoing military operation and lack of resolution in the Middle East create an asymmetric risk to global oil supplies. In a scenario where the Strait of Hormuz is closed, the broader market will sell off, but domestic energy producers will see massive margin expansion due to skyrocketing underlying commodity prices. LONG because energy equities act as the primary hedge against the specific geopolitical risks currently threatening the broader market. If a diplomatic resolution is reached quickly, the geopolitical premium in oil will evaporate, leading to a sharp pullback in energy equities.

Wells Fargo predicts a "worst case scenario... S&P 500 falling to 6000... if you have a prolonged closure... of the Strait of Hormuz... oil above 100 plus dollars." Oil is the transmission mechanism for pain. If USO (Oil) breaks above $90-$100, the "resilient economy" narrative breaks, and equities will re-rate lower. WATCH. Use Oil as the primary risk gauge for the broader portfolio. False breakouts in commodities due to headline noise.

Joe Terranova sold his position in Zoom today. Despite the broader software discussion, specific names like Zoom are failing to convince investors of their AI pivot or growth re-acceleration. AVOID. Loss of institutional sponsorship. Unexpected buyout or successful AI product launch.

David Tepper sent a letter stating management "has destroyed hundreds of millions of dollars of shareholder value" and "enough is enough." He specifically criticizes a dilutive equity issuance and the failure to use tariffs to force a merger or partnership with foreign rivals. Tepper is a highly influential investor. His public activism acts as a catalyst for change. By highlighting the stock's massive decline (from $220 to $71) and demanding a strategic review (merger/partnership), he puts a floor under the price and increases the probability of a buyout or major strategic pivot to unlock value. The specific suggestion to merge with "disadvantaged foreign companies" (who need US manufacturing access to avoid tariffs) provides a clear roadmap for a potential deal. LONG. Follow the activist pressure. The stock is deeply beaten down, and Tepper's push for a sale or partnership creates an asymmetric upside if management capitulates or is forced to act. Management may ignore the letter; the appliance cycle may continue to deteriorate; potential foreign partners may not be interested despite tariff pressures.

Citing Dan Ives: "The sell off in Apple is unwarranted. That 2026 will be the year Apple finally gets into the AI game." The current price weakness is a buying opportunity, as the market is underestimating Apple's upcoming entry into the AI sector later in 2026. LONG. Continued CapEx lag and lack of immediate AI products could dampen sentiment further.

Amundi, Europe's largest asset manager, said it would "cut US dollar assets over the coming year and expects the dollar to weaken further." The "Sell U.S." trade is fundamentally a currency trade. If global institutions diversify away from U.S. assets due to policy unpredictability and rate cuts (mentioned by Kevin Warsh/Trump), selling pressure on the USD will increase relative to foreign currencies. SHORT US Dollar (or unhedged international exposure). Flight to safety strengthens USD; other central banks cut rates faster than the Fed.

Scott Wapner cites data showing international markets (Israel, Brazil, Japan, UK) "trounced" the U.S. trade last year. He notes that PIMCO and Amundi are explicitly pivoting away from U.S. assets due to "unpredictable policies" and valuation gaps. The U.S. market's dominance has forced global competitors to adopt shareholder-friendly reforms (like Japan's corporate governance changes). As major asset managers reallocate capital to these cheaper, reforming markets to diversify political risk, international indices will capture the flow. LONG International/EM indices to capture the rotation. U.S. exceptionalism continues; global geopolitical instability.