TO TOST Toast, Inc. Loading... : Investor Sentiment and Bull/Bear Views

Josh says he averaged down into Toast and ServiceTitan because the market narrative had it backwards: Silicon Valley assumed AI would disintermediate SaaS middlemen, but businesses want SaaS vendors that can be held accountable, and vertical end users like restaurant owners and contractors will not build their own software. Toast and ServiceTitan are now selling AI to their existing customer bases.

Toast is not a software company that will be disrupted by AI; it will be an AI beneficiary. Its installed hardware in restaurants and Toast IQ product put it in pole position to deliver AI-driven hospitality solutions. The stock is breaking a year-long downtrend on good volume with RSI confirmation.

Revenue growing 20% YoY, gross profit up 27% last quarter, company recently turned profitable; expanding into grocery/gas station verticals; ruggedized hardware creates stickiness vs. iPad-based competitors. The market's SaaSpocalypse/AI-disruption fears are overblown for Toast because its hardware moat and restaurant-specific integration make switching costly. At ~18x forward P/E, the stock is mispriced relative to its growth trajectory. Long-term position – either P/E stays flat with rising earnings or price declines further, creating even greater value. The asymmetry favors the upside. “Catching a falling knife” if the sell-off continues; hypothetical AI or disruptive competitor could still erode moat; macro slowdown hurting restaurant spending; execution risk in new verticals.