Carlyle CEO Harvey Schwartz: The demand for capital is going up in all forms
Summary
- Carlyle Group is raising targets for fee-related earnings and inflows through 2028, signaling confidence despite recent stock volatility.
- Schwartz argues that global demand for capital is rising across all forms (bank and private) due to re-industrialization, national security, and energy transition needs.
- He views the current negative sentiment around SaaS/Software as "oversimplified," though Carlyle has low exposure (6%) to the sector.
- Macro outlook is bullish: Schwartz projects Q1 GDP could be north of 3-4%, driven by favorable financial conditions and strong portfolio company data.
Trade Ideas
Harvey Schwartz
CEO of The Carlyle Group
Schwartz states, "The demand for capital is going up in all forms... everyone is focused on economic growth and reindustrialisation investing in national security." He notes that governments are constrained by high deficit levels. When capital demand rises (re-industrialization) but traditional government funding is capped by deficits, the gap must be filled by Private Capital. This creates a structural tailwind for Alternative Asset Managers (Alts) to deploy capital and earn fees, regardless of short-term market sentiment. LONG Private Equity/Credit managers who facilitate this capital transfer. A severe recession curbing deal flow or a regulatory crackdown on private credit.
Harvey Schwartz
CEO of The Carlyle Group
Schwartz explicitly names "reindustrialisation" and "investing in national security" as the primary drivers of global capital demand. These are not abstract concepts; they translate directly to specific sectors. "Reindustrialisation" benefits Industrials (XLI) and Infrastructure (PAVE). "National Security" benefits Defense (ITA). If the "smart money" (Carlyle) is seeing demand here, these sectors are the recipients of that capex. LONG the sectors receiving the capital inflows. Geopolitical de-escalation (for defense) or a slowdown in government spending bills.
Harvey Schwartz
CEO of The Carlyle Group
When asked about the "consternation" and negative headlines surrounding Software/SaaS, Schwartz says the conversation is "being a bit oversimplified" but admits it is a "story that will unfold over a period of time." He does not offer a ringing endorsement to "buy the dip," nor does he agree with the panic. He notes Carlyle has low exposure (6%). This suggests the sector is currently in a "show me" phase where valuation compression might be overdone, but the catalyst for a reversal isn't immediate. NEUTRAL / WATCH. Wait for the "story to unfold" as Schwartz suggests. Higher rates for longer compressing valuations further.
Harvey Schwartz
CEO of The Carlyle Group
Schwartz cites proprietary data from 700,000 portfolio employees: "The economy feels good. We think GDP for the first quarter... could be well north of 3%, maybe even 4%." A 3-4% GDP print is significantly higher than the "soft landing" or "recession" consensus. If growth is this robust, broad equity indices (SPY) and cyclical consumer sectors are underpricing the economic strength. LONG Broad US Equities based on strong fundamental data. Inflation re-accelerating due to the high growth, forcing the Fed to keep rates restrictive.
