Calls
36
#536
Alpha Score 47.1
Joseph Wang
Author, Central Banking 101 / ex-Senior Trader, Federal Reserve
Win Rate
55.6%
return
-0.3%
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Ticker
Side
Mentions
First Call
Call Price
P&L
Thesis
Theme
Source
Long
Feb 07
$87.54
-3.5%
"Businesses have significantly ramped up their intention to lay off workers... job openings per worker looking for a job has now declined to levels that are below pre-pandemic." A softening labor market leads to decelerating wage growth and downward pressure on service inflation. This forces the Fed to cut rates more aggressively than the two cuts currently priced in. More cuts equal lower yields and higher bond prices. Long duration treasuries to capture the repricing of Fed cuts. Inflation re-accelerates due to supply shocks, preventing the Fed from cutting despite labor weakness (Stagflation).
"Businesses have significantly ramped up their intention to lay off workers... job openings per worker looking for a job has now declined to levels that are below pre-pandemic." A softening labor market leads to decelerating wage growth and downward pressure on service inflation. This forces the Fed to cut rates more aggressively than the two cuts currently priced in. More cuts equal lower yields and higher bond prices. Long duration treasuries to capture the repricing of Fed cuts. Inflation re-accelerates due to supply shocks, preventing the Fed from cutting despite labor weakness (Stagflation).
Bonds & Rates
Long
Mar 07
$108.77
+15.4%
"The straight of Hormuz... about 20% of global crude oil passes through that and when they shut that down that is a huge negative supply shock." Insurance firms are pulling coverage and threats are active, effectively closing the strait. With the US SPR only half full, there is no buffer to absorb this shock, forcing prices significantly higher. Long Oil exposure as the conflict escalates and supply remains constrained. A sudden peace deal ("Taco") or resolution would cause prices to implode, similar to Desert Storm.
"The straight of Hormuz... about 20% of global crude oil passes through that and when they shut that down that is a huge negative supply shock." Insurance firms are pulling coverage and threats are active, effectively closing the strait. With the US SPR only half full, there is no buffer to absorb this shock, forcing prices significantly higher. Long Oil exposure as the conflict escalates and supply remains constrained. A sudden peace deal ("Taco") or resolution would cause prices to implode, similar to Desert Storm.
Commodities
Short
Jun 13
$741.75
-0.1%
The broader US equity market faces a headwind from a shift to net equity issuance. Big Tech companies are reducing buybacks and issuing shares to finance AI buildouts, removing a decades-long pillar of support. Combined with upcoming IPOs (Anthropic, OpenAI), the increased supply will likely pressure stock prices.
Equity Indexes
Short
Jun 06
$175.19
+7.9%
Korean retail investors are highly levered and chased momentum in the KOSPI, driven by memory stocks Samsung and SK Hynix. After a 5% drop, margin calls may force further selling of Korean stocks and US holdings, leading to another 5-10% down day in the KOSPI.
Equity Indexes
Short
Apr 25
$506.44
-9.7%
Semiconductor stocks are surging in a frenzy that looks like a blowoff top, historically ending in implosion. Demand for compute may falter if hyperscalers start charging for usage or if competition commoditizes AI models, undermining chip makers' revenue sustainability.
Thematic ETFs
Short
Jun 06
$2094000.00
+12.0%
Korean retail investors are highly levered and chased momentum in the KOSPI, driven by memory stocks Samsung and SK Hynix. After a 5% drop, margin calls may force further selling of Korean stocks and US holdings, leading to another 5-10% down day in the KOSPI.
AI Memory
Short
Jun 06
$331500.00
+23.1%
Korean retail investors are highly levered and chased momentum in the KOSPI, driven by memory stocks Samsung and SK Hynix. After a 5% drop, margin calls may force further selling of Korean stocks and US holdings, leading to another 5-10% down day in the KOSPI.
AI Memory
Short
Jun 06
$60831.60
-6.4%
Gold lost its 200-day moving average during the deleveraging event, triggering trend-followers to sell, and the move is likely not over yet. Silver and Bitcoin also suffered large declines as part of the same risk-off unwind.
Crypto Assets
Short
Jun 06
$396.24
+7.0%
Gold lost its 200-day moving average during the deleveraging event, triggering trend-followers to sell, and the move is likely not over yet. Silver and Bitcoin also suffered large declines as part of the same risk-off unwind.
Commodities
Short
Jun 06
$61.57
+17.8%
Gold lost its 200-day moving average during the deleveraging event, triggering trend-followers to sell, and the move is likely not over yet. Silver and Bitcoin also suffered large declines as part of the same risk-off unwind.
Commodities
Long
May 02
$462.06
+12.7%
Semiconductor companies like Nvidia benefit from AI-driven demand for memory chips, with RAM prices quadrupling due to supply constraints and hyperscaler spending. This supports continued upside in semiconductor stocks and indexes like the SOX.
Thematic ETFs
Short
Feb 28
$68.58
+0.9%
The US is now the largest oil producer in the world and is energy independent. Japan and Europe are net importers. A Middle East war that spikes oil prices acts as a tax on Japan and Europe, hurting their economies significantly more than the US. SHORT (Relative to US Equities). Oil prices collapse faster than expected, negating the energy disadvantage.
The US is now the largest oil producer in the world and is energy independent. Japan and Europe are net importers. A Middle East war that spikes oil prices acts as a tax on Japan and Europe, hurting their economies significantly more than the US. SHORT (Relative to US Equities). Oil prices collapse faster than expected, negating the energy disadvantage.
Equity Indexes
Short
Feb 28
$81.95
-53.2%
In prior Middle East conflicts (1990, 2003), oil prices spiked during the buildup but "totally imploded" once the invasion actually started. The geopolitical premium is often priced in before the first shot is fired. Unless Iran successfully destroys significant global supply (which is a risk), the "fear premium" evaporates quickly. SHORT (Fade the war spike). Iran explicitly targeting oil facilities of neighbors or successfully closing the Strait of Hormuz.
In prior Middle East conflicts (1990, 2003), oil prices spiked during the buildup but "totally imploded" once the invasion actually started. The geopolitical premium is often priced in before the first shot is fired. Unless Iran successfully destroys significant global supply (which is a risk), the "fear premium" evaporates quickly. SHORT (Fade the war spike). Iran explicitly targeting oil facilities of neighbors or successfully closing the Strait of Hormuz.
Commodities
Long
Feb 23
$682.39
+8.8%
The market's initial fear-driven sell-off in response to a potential Iran conflict is likely to be a buying opportunity, as historical precedent suggests a limited economic impact and subsequent recovery.
The market's initial fear-driven sell-off in response to a potential Iran conflict is likely to be a buying opportunity, as historical precedent suggests a limited economic impact and subsequent recovery.
Equity Indexes
Short
Jun 27
$283.78
-17.6%
RAM price surge is raising input costs for consumer electronics makers. Apple had to increase product prices citing RAM inflation, and its stock fell 5%. Other vendors like Microsoft and Nintendo are also affected. This headwind will dampen consumer electronics spending and pressure Apple's margins and unit sales.
AI Hardware
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Joseph Wang has 36 trade ideas tracked on Buzzberg across 34 tickers since February 2026. Win rate 56% across 36 evaluated calls, average return -0.3%. Ranked #536 on the Buzzberg Alpha leaderboard. Most covered: TLT, SPY, BNO.
