Dan Rasmussen

The median Japanese company holds ~7 years of net income in assets (vs. 1 year for US companies). Corporate governance reforms are pressuring these companies to increase payouts (dividends/buybacks). There is a massive "value unlock" potential as these unproductive assets are distributed to shareholders. The return of inflation signals nominal GDP growth, breaking the deflationary mindset. LONG. It is a deep value play with a specific catalyst (governance reform) that does not rely on massive tech innovation. Cultural resistance to rapid change (slow-moving consensus); currency volatility (Yen weakness).

The median Japanese company holds ~7 years of net income in assets (vs. 1 year for US companies). Corporate governance reforms are pressuring these companies to increase payouts (dividends/buybacks). There is a massive "value unlock" potential as these unproductive assets are distributed to shareholders. The return of inflation signals nominal GDP growth, breaking the deflationary mindset. LONG. It is a deep value play with a specific catalyst (governance reform) that does not rely on massive tech innovation. Cultural resistance to rapid change (slow-moving consensus); currency volatility (Yen weakness).

The median Japanese company holds ~7 years of net income in assets (vs. 1 year for US companies). Corporate governance reforms are pressuring these companies to increase payouts (dividends/buybacks). There is a massive "value unlock" potential as these unproductive assets are distributed to shareholders. The return of inflation signals nominal GDP growth, breaking the deflationary mindset. LONG. It is a deep value play with a specific catalyst (governance reform) that does not rely on massive tech innovation. Cultural resistance to rapid change (slow-moving consensus); currency volatility (Yen weakness).

Biotech is the most uncorrelated sector with the highest dispersion. 70% of unprofitable biotechs lose money, but the sector has experienced a massive drawdown (historically followed by massive recoveries). The "baby has been thrown out with the bathwater." A systematic approach filtering for "Quality" (owned by specialists) and "Value" (low Market Cap relative to R&D Spend) identifies winners in a sector where generalist capital has fled. LONG. The sector offers "lottery ticket" positive skewness after a deep cyclical bottom. High failure rate of individual clinical trials; interest rate sensitivity for unprofitable companies.

US valuations are high, but the US is undergoing a "unique in history innovation wave" (Cloud, AI). Unlike other markets, US companies have actually grown into their high multiples through tangible technological revolutions. Betting against US innovation has historically been a losing trade. LONG. High valuations are a feature of high innovation, not necessarily a bubble. Mean reversion in profit margins; regulatory crackdowns on Big Tech.

US valuations are high, but the US is undergoing a "unique in history innovation wave" (Cloud, AI). Unlike other markets, US companies have actually grown into their high multiples through tangible technological revolutions. Betting against US innovation has historically been a losing trade. LONG. High valuations are a feature of high innovation, not necessarily a bubble. Mean reversion in profit margins; regulatory crackdowns on Big Tech.

Biotech is the most uncorrelated sector with the highest dispersion. 70% of unprofitable biotechs lose money, but the sector has experienced a massive drawdown (historically followed by massive recoveries). The "baby has been thrown out with the bathwater." A systematic approach filtering for "Quality" (owned by specialists) and "Value" (low Market Cap relative to R&D Spend) identifies winners in a sector where generalist capital has fled. LONG. The sector offers "lottery ticket" positive skewness after a deep cyclical bottom. High failure rate of individual clinical trials; interest rate sensitivity for unprofitable companies.