Kristen Olsen 1.5 9 ideas

"Private equity firms are stuck with assets that are now going on kind of seven years... Secondary funds have the ability to step in and really capitalize on this current dynamic." The "Liquidity Crunch" in private equity forces GPs and LPs to sell stakes at discounts. The largest players in the Secondaries market (Blackstone's Strategic Partners, Carlyle's AlpInvest, Ares' Landmark, KKR) are the buyers of choice. They get assets at a discount and are the solution to the industry's liquidity problem. Long the alternative asset managers with dominant Secondary platforms. A severe recession could mark down the underlying portfolio values (NAV) of the assets they are buying, regardless of the entry discount.

"A lot of the infrastructure needs are currently being driven by some of our technology innovations... whether it's more power that we need for data centers, right, data center construction." "Infrastructure" is now a derivative trade on AI. To support LLMs, you need physical Data Centers (EQIX, DLR) and massive amounts of electricity/power generation (VST, CEG). These "Real Assets" have inflation-linked contracts and secular demand growth. Long Data Center REITs and Power Producers/Utilities. Regulatory pushback on power consumption or a slowdown in AI capex spending.

"Concerns around how AI is going to potentially, you know, disintermediate and disrupt, you know, traditional software investing that was happening in the private markets." The traditional Private Equity playbook (buy a B2B SaaS company, optimize margins, sell) is under threat. AI agents may replace seat-based software licenses. This creates a headwind for legacy Software/SaaS baskets. Watch/Neutral on broad software indices; be selective against companies easily disrupted by AI automation. AI adoption might be slower than expected, allowing legacy software companies to pivot and integrate AI successfully.