Daily Alpha · Reddit
· Post-Market Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Value posts pitched TTM Technologies, Build-A-Bear and Beachbody, and one r/ETFs post put QQQ about 15.8% above its fair-value estimate.
Themes on this desk
Cause of the selloff
One poster argued funds that had doubted AI capex returns used the election as a shared excuse to cut exposure together; another argued the AI trade has an unresolved contradiction between hyperscaler capex and free cash flow.
Dip-buying versus trend
One r/stocks poster expects a V-shaped recovery within 30 days and is buying a little more every day; another sees a clear bearish trend with more opportunity on the short side.
Highest engagement
by score · day changeTighter siting rules could push AI compute to remote mega-sites and lift long-haul optical demand
The post argues tighter data-center siting rules and local opposition push AI compute toward remote mega-sites, lifting long-haul optical/DCI demand, with Ciena positioned first and Nokia a challenger.
How the Democratic midterm win may affect data center build — and the counterintuitive consequence for optical & IP demand
It frames optical and IP vendors as a counterintuitive beneficiary of the Democratic midterm win.
Source →LEU's Q3 10-Q shows HALEU title transfer and cleanup obligations the press release left out
The author, who owns a starter LEU position at $101, found HALEU title transfer and cleanup obligations in the Q3 10-Q plus a Dec 31 DOE lease deadline.
LEU's Q3 10-Q has news the press release left out:
The author judges about $90 as lacking a margin of safety.
Watch The Dec 31 DOE lease deadline.
Source →Uranium spot is below January's level while the term benchmark is US$9 higher
The post notes the uranium term benchmark has risen above spot while spot fell since January.
Uranium spot is below January’s level. The term benchmark is US$9 higher.
The author argues the signal matters for producers and mine underwriting.
Source →A holdings-weighted valuation puts QQQ about 15.8% above fair value
The author's holdings-weighted valuation puts QQQ about 15.8% above estimated intrinsic value.
QQQ is still trading 16% above my fair value estimate. Is the real correction just getting started?
Top-10 and tech concentration could amplify a de-rating if AI spending returns are questioned.
Source →Most of Nebius's planned data centers sit outside the US, a poster argues
The author argues NBIS is a bargain because most of its planned data centers sit outside the US, insulating it from US construction limits.
NBIS: Stock sold off but most of the planned Data Centers are outside the US NBIS is looking like a
The author expects NBIS to capture hyperscaler demand that IREN and CoreWeave lose.
Source →Most argued
by comments per upvoteA poster warns Nvidia's November 17 earnings may disappoint
The author argues NVDA's 11/17 earnings may disappoint, citing investor pressure on hyperscaler capex, political and regulatory risk, valuation stretch and customer concentration.
There is a more serious issue with the 11/17 Nvidia Earnings the worst may be coming… I know this past
Watch Nvidia's November 17 earnings.
Source →An investor is buying a small TTM Technologies position at about $61.80
The author buys TTM Technologies as a small position, citing order backlog and the 2027 EPS outlook, and compares its upside with Nvidia and Micron.
TTMI at $60: Why I’m buying it over Nvidia and Micron At about $61.80 intraday on November 5, I’m buyingSource →
Build-A-Bear's base-case value is $47 against a $31.54 close, a value post argues
The post argues asset-light partner and franchise expansion plus capex normalization can lift free cash flow, with BBW trading at roughly 8.6x forward earnings at the November 4 close.
Build-A-Bear: A Simple Business the Market Misunderstands At **$31.54, the November 4 close**, BBW trades at roughly **8.6x forward earnings**,Source →
Beachbody trades at about 0.7x EBITDA and 0.15x revenue, a deep-value post argues
The post argues the market ignores BODI's profitable post-MLM transition and net cash, and that retail and ecommerce initiatives could re-rate the shares by 2027.
$BODI (Beachbody): A profitable company trading at ~0.7x EBITDA & ~0.15x Revenue I'm stuck on a Delta flight without wifiSource →
Calogena won a €40M European Commission grant for a potential first commercial SMR
The post reports that Calogena received a €40M European Commission Innovation Fund grant for a potential first commercial small modular reactor for district heating at the Tricastin site.
The first European Commission funding for a potential commercial smr reactor Calogena has been awarded the first European grant forSource →