BO BODI The Beachbody Company, Inc. Class A Common Stock Loading... : Investor Sentiment and Bull/Bear Views

The author claims BODI is priced for bankruptcy at ~0.7x EBITDA and ~0.15x revenue despite positive GAAP net income, net cash, and owned fitness IP, because revenue is shrinking while it transitions away from MLM. Catalysts include Shakeology/P90X retail rollout, KeHE/UNFI distribution, Amazon supplements, P90X energy drinks, and new Shaun T programs timed for Q4 and the New Year. The main stated risk is whether retail and ecommerce can offset continued subscriber and revenue decline; debt covenants and the tiny float are also cited as concerns.

The author argues BODI is mispriced as a bankruptcy candidate: at about 0.7x EBITDA and a roughly $24M enterprise value, it is profitable, holds net cash, and owns recognizable fitness and supplement IP. The catalyst is the transition from MLM to retail and ecommerce—Shakeology in Sprouts and Vitamin Shoppe, KeHE/UNFI distribution, Amazon supplements, P90X energy drinks, and new Shaun T programs—with Q3 2026 the first clean comp and 2027 the first full test of retail scale. The bear case keeps revenue near $160M and values equity around $3.90 per share, while the base and bull cases reach roughly $9.75–$19.50 on 3–5x 2027 EBITDA. The main risk is continued subscriber and revenue decline, including a Q3 GAAP loss guide, amid expensive debt and covenant amendments.