Calls
28
#462
Alpha Score 63.8
Mike Wilson
Chief Investment Officer, Morgan Stanley
Win Rate
60.7%
return
+2.6%
Loading charts...
Ticker
Side
Mentions
First Call
Call Price
P&L
Thesis
Theme
Source
Long
Feb 18
$203.57
+6.7%
Wilson states the US is in a "new earnings and economic cycle" following the end of a rolling recession. Crucially, the median stock is now seeing double-digit earnings growth year-over-year, a shift from when growth was concentrated solely in Big Tech. When earnings growth broadens beyond the "Mag 7," valuation spreads typically narrow. This favors the "Average Stock" (Equal Weight S&P 500) and cyclical sectors (Financials, Industrials) over the heavy-weight tech plays that have dominated recent years. LONG the "Broadening Trade" via Equal Weight ETFs and cyclical sectors. A deterioration in earnings revisions or an exogenous shock (e.g., aggressive Fed hiking).
Wilson states the US is in a "new earnings and economic cycle" following the end of a rolling recession. Crucially, the median stock is now seeing double-digit earnings growth year-over-year, a shift from when growth was concentrated solely in Big Tech. When earnings growth broadens beyond the "Mag 7," valuation spreads typically narrow. This favors the "Average Stock" (Equal Weight S&P 500) and cyclical sectors (Financials, Industrials) over the heavy-weight tech plays that have dominated recent years. LONG the "Broadening Trade" via Equal Weight ETFs and cyclical sectors. A deterioration in earnings revisions or an exogenous shock (e.g., aggressive Fed hiking).
Equity Indexes
Long
Feb 18
$117.02
-2.2%
Wilson states the US is in a "new earnings and economic cycle" following the end of a rolling recession. Crucially, the median stock is now seeing double-digit earnings growth year-over-year, a shift from when growth was concentrated solely in Big Tech. When earnings growth broadens beyond the "Mag 7," valuation spreads typically narrow. This favors the "Average Stock" (Equal Weight S&P 500) and cyclical sectors (Financials, Industrials) over the heavy-weight tech plays that have dominated recent years. LONG the "Broadening Trade" via Equal Weight ETFs and cyclical sectors. A deterioration in earnings revisions or an exogenous shock (e.g., aggressive Fed hiking).
Wilson states the US is in a "new earnings and economic cycle" following the end of a rolling recession. Crucially, the median stock is now seeing double-digit earnings growth year-over-year, a shift from when growth was concentrated solely in Big Tech. When earnings growth broadens beyond the "Mag 7," valuation spreads typically narrow. This favors the "Average Stock" (Equal Weight S&P 500) and cyclical sectors (Financials, Industrials) over the heavy-weight tech plays that have dominated recent years. LONG the "Broadening Trade" via Equal Weight ETFs and cyclical sectors. A deterioration in earnings revisions or an exogenous shock (e.g., aggressive Fed hiking).
Thematic ETFs
Long
Jun 10
$71.81
+1.0%
As the semiconductor trade unwinds, leadership rotates to consumer stocks, transportation stocks, and regional banks, which held up on a down tape and represent the next area of opportunity.
Thematic ETFs
Long
Jun 10
$83.79
-1.0%
As the semiconductor trade unwinds, leadership rotates to consumer stocks, transportation stocks, and regional banks, which held up on a down tape and represent the next area of opportunity.
Thematic ETFs
Long
Apr 24
$83.48
+2.3%
Consumer goods, industrial stocks, and financials were pummeled when oil prices rose, but with earnings broadening, these areas are attractive. Morgan Stanley doubled down on them three weeks ago.
Thematic ETFs
Long
Mar 20
$413.38
-3.9%
Speaker advocates for a portfolio shift from traditional 60/40 to a 60/20/20 model, with the 20% alternatives allocation including gold as a defensive asset. In a fiscal-dominant, inflationary regime, gold protects against currency debasement and serves as a hedge when the defensive function of long-duration bonds is compromised. Long gold as a strategic, non-yielding asset for portfolio diversification and inflation hedging. A return to a Volcker-like Fed prioritizing inflation fighting above all else, driving real rates sharply higher.
Speaker advocates for a portfolio shift from traditional 60/40 to a 60/20/20 model, with the 20% alternatives allocation including gold as a defensive asset. In a fiscal-dominant, inflationary regime, gold protects against currency debasement and serves as a hedge when the defensive function of long-duration bonds is compromised. Long gold as a strategic, non-yielding asset for portfolio diversification and inflation hedging. A return to a Volcker-like Fed prioritizing inflation fighting above all else, driving real rates sharply higher.
Commodities
Long
Feb 18
$52.59
+8.8%
Wilson states the US is in a "new earnings and economic cycle" following the end of a rolling recession. Crucially, the median stock is now seeing double-digit earnings growth year-over-year, a shift from when growth was concentrated solely in Big Tech. When earnings growth broadens beyond the "Mag 7," valuation spreads typically narrow. This favors the "Average Stock" (Equal Weight S&P 500) and cyclical sectors (Financials, Industrials) over the heavy-weight tech plays that have dominated recent years. LONG the "Broadening Trade" via Equal Weight ETFs and cyclical sectors. A deterioration in earnings revisions or an exogenous shock (e.g., aggressive Fed hiking).
Wilson states the US is in a "new earnings and economic cycle" following the end of a rolling recession. Crucially, the median stock is now seeing double-digit earnings growth year-over-year, a shift from when growth was concentrated solely in Big Tech. When earnings growth broadens beyond the "Mag 7," valuation spreads typically narrow. This favors the "Average Stock" (Equal Weight S&P 500) and cyclical sectors (Financials, Industrials) over the heavy-weight tech plays that have dominated recent years. LONG the "Broadening Trade" via Equal Weight ETFs and cyclical sectors. A deterioration in earnings revisions or an exogenous shock (e.g., aggressive Fed hiking).
Thematic ETFs
Long
Feb 18
$175.04
-1.2%
Wilson states the US is in a "new earnings and economic cycle" following the end of a rolling recession. Crucially, the median stock is now seeing double-digit earnings growth year-over-year, a shift from when growth was concentrated solely in Big Tech. When earnings growth broadens beyond the "Mag 7," valuation spreads typically narrow. This favors the "Average Stock" (Equal Weight S&P 500) and cyclical sectors (Financials, Industrials) over the heavy-weight tech plays that have dominated recent years. LONG the "Broadening Trade" via Equal Weight ETFs and cyclical sectors. A deterioration in earnings revisions or an exogenous shock (e.g., aggressive Fed hiking).
Wilson states the US is in a "new earnings and economic cycle" following the end of a rolling recession. Crucially, the median stock is now seeing double-digit earnings growth year-over-year, a shift from when growth was concentrated solely in Big Tech. When earnings growth broadens beyond the "Mag 7," valuation spreads typically narrow. This favors the "Average Stock" (Equal Weight S&P 500) and cyclical sectors (Financials, Industrials) over the heavy-weight tech plays that have dominated recent years. LONG the "Broadening Trade" via Equal Weight ETFs and cyclical sectors. A deterioration in earnings revisions or an exogenous shock (e.g., aggressive Fed hiking).
Thematic ETFs
Long
Jul 06
$160.79
+1.6%
The broadening trade is reigniting as oil prices have declined and Fed rate hike fears have eased, leading to lower long-term rates. This environment supports a rotation away from concentrated semiconductor positions into other areas: hyperscalers (large-cap AI-driven tech), biotech, and consumer discretionary sectors. The market adjustment to a new Fed regime is creating wider dispersion but ultimately lower volatility, favoring a broader equity rally beyond just a few mega-cap names.
Thematic ETFs
Long
Jul 06
$138.07
+15.9%
Hyperscalers are expected to stabilize while semiconductor stocks undergo a correction. This ebb and flow is a natural governing factor that prevents the market from becoming unstable. The capex cycle is not over.
Thematic ETFs
Long
Aug 14
$82.03
-0.5%
Wilson says investors should not abandon fixed income but should reduce duration to make the fixed income allocation more valuable and retain diversification without taking too much duration risk.
Bonds & Rates
Long
Aug 14
$62.02
+4.5%
Wilson says gold has been in a 25-year bull market and is a good place to gravitate toward this year. He describes a Fed reserve-driven commodity rotation that began with gold and silver stocks taking off, then moved through rare earths and metal stocks, energy stocks, and semiconductors, reflecting demand for commodity-like assets to offset equity-like risk.
Thematic ETFs
Long
Aug 03
$547.00
-0.3%
Semiconductors are an early-cycle group and as the market moves to mid-cycle, they may struggle to reclaim leadership for the rest of the year. The easy money in crowded AI beneficiaries may be over, as the market now demands return on invested capital and capex discipline.
Thematic ETFs
Short
Jun 17
$115.70
-22.0%
The oil selloff is unwarranted and the market is overly optimistic about the Iran deal. Inventories are at multi-year lows, and once Asia returns to normal buying in the summer demand season, the supply deficit will reappear. Prices will retrace upward.
Commodities
Short
Jun 10
$575.66
+5.3%
Semiconductor earnings revision breadth has reached an unsustainably high 70%, a level seen only a few times in 25 years; it has started to roll over and the leveraged trade is unwinding, signaling a near-term correction and shift to new leadership.
Thematic ETFs
Showing 15 of 28 calls · sorted by mentions
Choose a mentions count to open ticker posts.
Mike Wilson has 28 trade ideas tracked on Buzzberg across 27 tickers since February 2026. Win rate 61% across 28 evaluated calls, average return +2.6%. Ranked #462 on the Buzzberg Alpha leaderboard. Most covered: SPY, XLY, KRE.
