Daily Alpha · X
· Post-Market Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Coherent beat estimates and now expects fiscal 2027 pro forma growth above 60%, and @aleabitoreddit flagged an Intel CEO share purchase and AXT's backlog jump.
Themes on this desk
Lumentum bid
The Information reported Lumentum could attract rival takeover bids from AMD, Intel or Nvidia; Michael Sikand notes Marvell's ~30% drop cut the value of its all-stock bid for Lumentum from $115B to about $70B.
Ticker heat
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Market Radar →Intel's CEO bought $9.71M of Intel shares at $64.7, per a new SEC filing
A new SEC filing discloses Intel's CEO buying $9.71M of Intel shares at $64.7 under his family trust. The poster calls it a pretty large vote of confidence after the 49.9% drop this month.
New SEC filing discloses $INTC CEO buying $9.71M worth of Intel shares at $64.7 under his family trust.
The poster compares it with the former TSMC chairman buying $7.8M of Micron in the $300s.
Source →@aleabitoreddit says AXT's backlog went from $100M to over $500M in one quarter
Per @aleabitoreddit, AXT's Q2 backlog of $100M rose to $500M+ in Q3, with $300M-$400M+ from ordinary business rather than multi-year agreements from Lumentum or Coherent.
With $AXTI, even if demand was cut 50%, they'd still likely be sold out.
Customers are asking for 3x+ their contracted volumes, so AXT would likely still be sold out even if demand were cut 50%, and the poster argues InP substrates are as severe a bottleneck as lasers.
Source →Limit-data-center measures passed or led in 28 of 31 reporting local races
@thevalueist counted 46 local data center measures across 10 states: 33 written to limit data centers and 13 to allow or support them. Limit measures are passing or leading in 28 of 31 reporting races, and allow measures in 12 of 13.
$NVDA $MU $SNDK $LITE DATA CENTERS ON THE BALLOT: THE LOCAL RESULTS The state races got the headlines.
Margins were wide: Alhambra, California voted 81.8% to ban data centers in the city.
Source →Coherent beat fiscal Q1 estimates and now expects fiscal 2027 pro forma growth above 60%
Coherent's revenue was $2.37B versus $2.31B expected, up 50% year over year, with datacenter and communications at $1.95B, or 82% of revenue. The company targets a first $3B quarter by end of FY27 and a first $4B quarter in FY28.
COHERENT $COHR Q1 FY27 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS Revenue: $2.37B (Est. $2.31B) ; +50% YoY, +56% pro forma Adj. EPS: $2.09 (Est.
Capex of $775.5M and a ~$760M inventory build in the quarter support a capacity ramp.
Watch Q2 revenue against the $2.55B-$2.75B guide.
Source →@ces921 says the market is trading peak AI capex
@ces921 says money moved out of memory, neoclouds and energy and into staples, healthcare, banks, housing, retail and the hyperscalers themselves.
Massive dispersion today. The market is trading “peak AI capex”: Out: memory, neoclouds, energy. In:
A slower buildout is good for whoever does the spending and bad for whoever gets paid; banks and housing rallying says rotation, not a growth scare.
Watch Whether bank and housing strength changes.
Source →