Daily Alpha · X
· Premarket Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Bianco Research called the Democratic win of the Texas governorship the biggest market news of election night, while Gerstner expects 10-15 GW of expected AI build not to come online.
Themes on this desk
Texas approvals
@jiahanjimliu expects new governor Hinojosa to block all new approvals until the legislature sets conditions, though IREN's Childress and SW1 sites are already approved. @oguzerkan notes Texas's cumulative large-load queue exceeds 400 GW by
Ticker heat
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Market Radar →Bianco: a Democratic Texas governor is election night's biggest market news
A Democrat won the Texas governorship for the first time in decades, though Republicans still control the Texas House and Senate. Texas will host 25% of all data centers coming online through 2030, and Abbott's September 21 moratorium on data-center construction may not be lifted.
What I think is the biggest news from election night for markets:
The fear is that the moratorium stays in place; Nasdaq 100 was down more than 2%.
Watch Whether the Texas data-center moratorium is lifted.
Source →Chip-equipment makers reportedly near 2028 supply contracts and discuss 2029 orders
Applied Materials, ASML, Lam Research, Tokyo Electron and KLA are nearing the final stages of 2028 supply contracts, and some have begun discussing purchase orders for 2029 deliveries. A senior equipment executive expects the trend to continue through at least 2030.
According to Korean media reports, the world’s leading semiconductor equipment suppliers—including Applied Materials, ASML, Lam Research, Tokyo Electron (TEL), and
Chipmakers are locking in tools years ahead as surging demand and limited capacity extend lead times.
Watch Equipment makers' own disclosures of 2028 and 2029 orders.
Source →@aleabitoreddit: a Democratic win means developer headwinds, not an AI doomsday
@aleabitoreddit argues AI is a bipartisan national-security priority and that NVDA's historic rally and the AI buildout acceleration happened under the Biden administration. Even with a Democratic governor, they expect headwinds for individual developers and incentives such as clean-energy tax credits moving to other areas like solar manufacturing.
The rhetoric on X and from Elon leans overwhelmingly apocalyptic on Democrats winning.
The post expects markets to move on within weeks, as after earlier worst-case scares.
Watch Whether data-center developer names such as CRWV recover in the coming weeks.
Source →Gerstner sees 10-15 GW of expected AI build not coming online
Gerstner says consensus expects 43 GW to come online in 2027, versus about 38 GW cumulative in the US at end-2026, and he may see only half of that built. He says the blue wave will slow the build further.
Brad Gerstner of @AltimeterCap believes at least 10-15 GW of the expected build to not come online:
Gerstner argues the 2027 consensus overstates how much AI capacity will actually come online.
Watch 2027 data-center delivery estimates.
Source →Anthropic's S-1 shows H1 capex of $482M against about $266B of purchase commitments
Purchase commitments went from about $55B to about $266B in six months, and signed leases that have not started total about $321B. Broadcom guaranteed lenders up to about $43B on the $63B chip lease.
was reading anthropic's s-1: h1 2026 capex was just $482M. signed leases that haven't even started yet:
Landlords, power companies and chip vendors carry the assets, so they carry Anthropic's credit risk.
Watch Samsung and SK hynix long-term supply deals written against commitments like Anthropic's.
Source →