Daily Alpha · X
· Premarket Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) parsed AAOI's call and Chamath read the Texas governor-elect's data-center comments as not bullish, while a UBS desk note saw acute selling in Korean memory.
Themes on this desk
AAOI call
Posters highlight a $1B-$1.5B hyperscaler agreement and a second deal in final stages, against a 2026 unit guidance cut and a $471M monthly run-rate target pushed to late 2027.
Memory supply
TrendForce, relayed by @pequityresearch, sees 2027 DRAM bit supply growth slowing to 24%, while @blknoiz06 thinks the memory trade is starting to look exhausted and expects consolidation.
Ticker heat
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Top voices by smart followers and alpha score
Market Radar →Chamath says the Texas governor-elect's call to pause data centers until new laws does not sound bullish
Chamath quoted Texas Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa saying Texas needs to stop what it is doing with data centers until it has protections for Texans, and commented that this does not sound bullish.
“So the difference is we will have laws to protect Texans and we need to stop what we’re doing with
Hinojosa said data centers must be a partnership that benefits Texans and that there will be laws to protect Texans.
Watch New Texas data-center laws and whether development stops until they are in place.
Source →Serenity: AAOI's second LTA could be worth $5B-$7.5B, but its $471M monthly target slipped to H2 2027
Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) notes AAOI disclosed a $1B-$1.5B LTA with a hyperscaler customer and says a second LTA, worth 5x+ more (implying $5B-$7.5B) and explicitly including lasers, is in its final stages; AOI can only meet 80% of demand.
$AAOI earnings: - $1B-$1.5B LTA disclosed with a hyperscaler customer - 2nd LTA coming soon, worth 5x+ more (implying $5B-$7.5B),
Management rejected hyperscaler slowdowns from political changes, and AOI is moving toward US bank loans rather than ATMs.
Watch Capacity projections delayed into H1 2027, with the $471M/month target pushed into H2 2027 due to electrical procurement.
Source →Nasdaq-100 averaged +5.2% 21 days after one-day drops of 6.25% or more, but often fell another 10%
Across 33 such days since January 1985, the index averaged +5.2% after 21 days versus +1.3% for any day, but fell another 10% or more within 63 days in 21 of 33 cases.
Nasdaq-100 forward returns after one-day drops of 6.25% or more, like today’s (NDX, Jan 1985 to Nov 2026, n=33 days).
Fast policy backstops ended forced selling within two weeks in 1987 and 2020, while earnings and credit losses kept the index falling for months in 2000-01 and 2008.
Watch Whether expected data-center policy changes reverse; the post says this drop comes from expected policy changes, unlike the 2000 demand collapse.
Source →@tengyanAI calls Micron a likely gift, citing about $134B of RPOs in its October 10-K
@tengyanAI says Micron is very likely a gift after the steep selloff, citing ~$134bn of RPOs in the October 10-K; a quoted @tessara_ai post says Micron fell 17% on Thursday and reads the constraint as supply.
micron very likely a gift at these prices after the steep selloff oct 10-k filing still shows ~$134bn of RPOs
The quoted post notes Bloomberg reported Fab 11E in Taoyuan all but halted, while Micron said current operations continue as normal.
Watch Contract conversion if customer funding stays shut, and whether the reported fab pause holds.
Source →UBS Asia desk: Korean memory selling intensifies while TSMC and Japan industrials find buyers
Per a UBS Asia desk update shared by Zerohedge, overall flows were modestly net bought with Japan dominating turnover and the bid in industrials, while selling stayed acute in SK Hynix (4:1 better to sell) and Samsung Electronics (5:1 better to sell).
UBS Asia S&T desk update Korean Memory Selling Intensifies; Buying In TSMC, Japan Industrials; Financials Lack Bid Japan surprisingly constructive:
Long-only support for TSMC is helping absorb supply in Taiwan, and Japanese technology hardware turned net bought after being 2:1 sold Thursday.
Watch Whether selling in SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics eases and TSMC long-only support holds.
Source →