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· Post-Market Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Morgan Stanley prime data relayed by TheValueist put hedge-fund net leverage in the bottom decile, Goldman data shared by Paradis Labs showed record hedge-fund selling of AI stocks, and zephyr_z9 called the Microsoft-Oracle reaction an overreaction.
Themes on this desk
Microsoft-Oracle reaction
firstadopter said the Bloomberg story likely refers to an old $3 billion A100 deal for the Bing search engine that Business Insider reported in June; Daniel Newman said Oracle will do better selling this capacity short term or spot than in
SpaceX guidance
Musk sees SpaceX fourth-quarter revenue up about 70% from the third quarter, $2 billion above Wall Street estimates, and says SpaceX is on track for a $100 billion annualized revenue rate in December.
Ticker heat
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Market Radar →Repeated buying of Micron $600 January 2027 calls a day after its 13% drop
Clusters of up to $19.3 million in premium hit repeatedly, single-leg and heavily at the ask; one cluster was $12.5 million at the ask versus $70,000 at the bid, with the stock at $690.
Look at this bullish flow on Micron $MU.
The flow came a day after Micron fell about 13% in Thursday's chip rout.
Source →zephyr_z9: Microsoft walked away from renting Oracle A100s for Bing
zephyr_z9 says Oracle probably wanted a premium on those A100s and Microsoft walked away, calling the reaction an overreaction; a quoted post says Microsoft has committed $80B+ to rent third-party AI compute, per Bloomberg.
Microsoft was renting A100s from Oracle for powering Bing and they won't renew that contract Oracle probably wanted a premium
The quoted post also says Microsoft canceled a ~$3B Nscale UK agreement after grid connection delays pushed expected power into the 2030s.
Watch Delivery timing on IREN's $9.7B five-year Microsoft contract, which the quoted post says has been delayed.
Source →Goldman: hedge funds have been selling AI stocks at their fastest pace on record
Paradis Labs says TMT funds are now about flat year to date, down from roughly +24% in H1, after three big semis selloffs this year in March, July and October-November.
Absolutely staggering. HFs have been selling AI stocks at their fastest pace on record according to Goldman Sachs.
Hedge funds are positioned even lighter than a month ago, so a rally could force some short covering.
Watch Whether retail and buybacks do the heavy lifting in the short term.
Source →Morgan Stanley prime data: US long/short hedge-fund net leverage fell 5% on Thursday
The drop was the fifth largest single-day decline since 2010 and left net leverage in the bottom decile of the 16-year range; levered ETFs supplied $57B of equity selling, the largest amount in data back to 2007.
$NVDA $MU $SNDK $LITE THE DELEVERAGING, MEASURED:
Hedge funds are now underweight AI stocks against market-cap weights, though AI remains 32% of absolute exposure.
Watch Whether rising correlations across equities show risk reduction broadening from idiosyncratic to systematic.
Source →Global crude oil in transit reached a record 1.28 billion barrels
Crude in transit rose 180 million barrels over the last several weeks as Middle Eastern flows recover through the Strait of Hormuz and alternative routes, while ship-to-ship transfers and longer routes keep oil at sea for longer.
BREAKING: Global crude oil in transit is up to 1.28 billion barrels, an all-time high.
More oil in transit rather than available to refiners tightens near-term supply despite recovering export flows.
Watch Whether timely delivery remains the bottleneck as importers diversify away from the Middle East.
Source →