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Next edition in 1352 min Nov 6, 2026, 16:00-23:00 Lisbon
Premarket Alpha Midday Alpha Post-Market Alpha
Daily Alpha Post-Market Alpha by Buzzberg Research

What changed since midday

Microsoft is winding down an Oracle AI compute rental and Google took over Crusoe's Wyoming site; Morgan Stanley data put hedge-fund net leverage in the bottom decile; strong October payrolls raised December hike odds; Anthropic IPO valuation talk fell to $1.2-1.3 trillion.

Main narratives

day change
01

Microsoft is winding down an Oracle AI compute rental on older Nvidia chips, and Google bought out Crusoe's Wyoming site

Bloomberg reported that Microsoft is winding down an arrangement to rent AI computing from Oracle because the older-generation Nvidia hardware no longer fit its specifications, part of a larger reassessment of its cloud partnerships. Oracle shares fell 4% to 5%. Google bought out Crusoe's Wyoming site after Crusoe failed to lock in customers, per Bloomberg. firstadopter said the story likely refers to an old A100 deal for Bing; zephyr_z9 called the reaction an overreaction.

MSFT -0.9% · ORCL +0.5% · GOOGL +0.8%
02

Morgan Stanley prime data show US hedge-fund net leverage fell 5% on Thursday, the fifth-largest one-day drop since 2010

Morgan Stanley prime brokerage data, relayed by TheValueist, put long/short net leverage in the bottom decile since 2010, with hedge funds now underweight AI stocks and levered ETFs supplying $57B of equity selling. Goldman Sachs data shared by Paradis Labs show hedge funds selling AI stocks at their fastest pace on record. Kobeissi Letter notes the MTUM momentum ETF fell 8.2% on Thursday, its largest daily drop since March 2020.

NVDA +3.9% · MU +5.8% · MTUM +2.8%
03

A stronger October payroll report put a December Fed hike back on the table

The October jobs report came in well above estimates with more than 80,000 of upward revisions, and markets priced a much higher chance of a December hike. Moody's Mark Zandi says the Fed is inclined to tighten once more, while higher mortgage rates, softer equities and a possible AI capex cooldown may restrain growth. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said wage gains are lagging inflation.

04

Anthropic IPO valuation talk dropped to $1.2-1.3 trillion from roughly $2 trillion discussed earlier

Bloomberg News reported a potential Anthropic valuation of $1.2-1.3 trillion, compressed from around $2 trillion in earlier discussions, with October run-rate revenue above $80 billion cited as support. CNBC said some investors now float $1.25 trillion, a $1 trillion outcome is modeled, and the odds of listing before December fell sharply. Per the FT, as relayed by @gurgavin, Anthropic plans a November IPO raising $80B-$100B at $1.25T-$1.75T.

ANTHROPIC —

Themes of the session

?
Z-score shows how far this edition's mention count is above or below the theme's own average across 20 comparable earlier editions. +2.7σ means mentions are 2.7 standard deviations above that average — simply, the theme is being mentioned much more often than usual. It measures attention, not bullishness or expected return. Themes need at least 8 posts; gold begins at +2σ, and σ is hidden when history is too thin.
Satellite Communications +2.5σ
ASTS +7.0% · SATS -0.3%
14 posts 9 voices base 4.3
Space +1.2σ
SPCX — · RKLB +16.1% · FLY +36.8%
+2 more BKSY — · MDA —
37 posts 29 voices base 17.4
Software & SaaS +0.1σ
APP +9.8% · AI — · PLTR +3.6%
+8 more IBM — · U +5.5% · SAP — · INTU — · NOW — · CRM — · ADBE — · BL —
19 posts 14 voices base 18.3
Pharma & Biotech +0.1σ
SYRE +6.6% · MRNA +6.3% · ORKA +8.2%
+13 more ABVX — · ABBV — · SVRA — · AZN — · RVMD — · CYTK — · MRK — · CNTB — · VRTX — · NBIX — · INCY — · INO — · PFE —
15 posts 8 voices base 13.8
Crypto Assets -0.2σ
BTC — · ZEC — · ETH —
+13 more BNB — · HYPE — · SUI — · MIRA — · PUMP — · KNTQ — · LIT — · AERO — · XMR — · PRL — · NEAR — · REZ — · YLDS —
37 posts 25 voices base 40.9
Networking & Photonics -0.2σ
LITE +6.0% · AAOI +6.4% · CRDO +7.6%
+6 more ALMU — · ANET — · LPTH — · COHR +14.4% · MKSI — · CSCO —
26 posts 15 voices base 28.7
AI Compute -0.3σ
NVDA +3.9% · AMD +10.5% · CBRS +9.8%
54 posts 42 voices base 62.3
Hyperscalers -0.4σ
MSFT -0.9% · ORCL +0.5% · GOOGL +0.8%
+2 more AMZN — · META —
59 posts 33 voices base 102.0
Commodities -0.4σ
GLD -0.5% · USO — · SILVER +0.1%
+8 more WTI — · BNO — · XAU — · HO=F — · UNG — · SLV — · PALLADIUM — · COPPER —
23 posts 18 voices base 27.4
Equity Indexes -0.5σ
SPY — · QQQ +1.6% · ES=F —
+11 more SPX — · VOO — · NASDAQ — · EWT — · IWF — · NQ — · MTUM +2.8% · KORU — · QQQM — · SCHD — · EWY —
46 posts 28 voices base 58.9
NeoCloud -0.5σ
NBIS +8.3% · IREN +20.4% · CRWV +6.3%
35 posts 25 voices base 44.5
Memory & Storage -0.5σ
MU +5.8% · SNDK +3.5% · 005930.KS -6.3%
+3 more 000660.KS — · SKHY — · WDC —
25 posts 14 voices base 32.0
Autos & EV -0.5σ
TSLA +4.6% · BWA +3.2% · CPS +0.5%
13 posts 13 voices base 19.6
Thematic ETFs -0.6σ
SMH +3.8% · SOXL +12.6% · SOXX +3.8%
+19 more XBI — · TQQQ — · SKYY — · XLP — · XLV — · XLC — · GDX — · AIQ — · ITA — · XLE — · XLK — · URA +4.2% · XLU — · SOXQ — · URNJ — · CRAK — · NASA — · XLF — · IGV —
28 posts 18 voices base 36.5
Positioning Market Radar →

Buying / adding

3 positions · 3 voices

Selective / waiting

2 positions · 2 voices

Memory versus Nvidia

@finphysnerd is long a bit of QQQ and says memory stocks have capped downside, while Nvidia and other chip stocks have a lot of air below them if earnings are revised down post 2028.

@finphysnerd Alpha #345 6 smart
@0xVoyta I am long a bit of $QQQ.
QQQ
7d before-5.0%
since call +0.2%
NVDA
7d before-8.8%
since call +1.1%

Fading / not buying

3 positions · 3 voices
YouTube
49 videos · 20h 16m Bloomberg News put Anthropic's potential IPO valuation at $1.2-1.3 trillion, OpenAI's CFO said it will keep investing in data centers despite the election results, and Moody's Mark Zandi said strong payrolls give the Fed latitude to hike in December. Open the desk →
X
1482 posts Morgan Stanley prime data relayed by TheValueist put hedge-fund net leverage in the bottom decile, Goldman data shared by Paradis Labs showed record hedge-fund selling of AI stocks, and zephyr_z9 called the Microsoft-Oracle reaction an overreaction. Open the desk →
Reddit
369 threads Reddit posts weighed AAOI's weak Q4 guide ahead of Cerebras' Wednesday report, a long-oil case built on supply-route disruption, and AMD holders disclosed adds between $403.5 and $419. Open the desk →