Daily Alpha · Reddit
· Post-Market Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Reddit posts weighed AAOI's weak Q4 guide ahead of Cerebras' Wednesday report, a long-oil case built on supply-route disruption, and AMD holders disclosed adds between $403.5 and $419.
Themes on this desk
AMD adds
r/AMD_Stock posters disclosed adding to AMD at $419 and $410 and buying a few hundred shares at $403.5.
Highest engagement
by score · day changeAAOI's strong quarter and weak Q4 guide framed as a test case before Cerebras reports Wednesday
The author analyzes AAOI's strong results alongside a weak Q4 guide and margin, dilution and power constraints.
AAOI just showed what the market does to AI hardware with a catch. Cerebras reports Wednesday.
Cerebras' Wednesday report is framed as a test of the AI hardware trade shifting toward power and capacity.
Watch Cerebras' report on Wednesday.
Source →Long-oil case: supply-route disruption overrides the post-midterm seasonal pattern
The author cites Hormuz, Red Sea and Ukraine/Black Sea disruption and has stayed long oil since the $50s-$60s.
Why we think energy breaks its post-midterm seasonal pattern this cycle The seasonal data is reasonably consistent:
The thesis rests on structural supply-route disruption overriding post-midterm seasonal weakness in energy.
Source →Petrobras trades at about 5x earnings with a 6% dividend yield versus Exxon at 13x
The author asks whether political risk from Brazilian state control makes the discount the opportunity or the correct price.
A major oil producer trading at 5x earnings with a 6% dividend, against Exxon at 13x Petrobras.Source →
Uranium ETF sits on the weekly 200 MA after a roughly 50% drop
The author says this is the level where the last bottom formed, sets a rule-based entry after two green weeks and cites a demand case from data centres.
Uranium down ~50% and sitting on the weekly 200 MA the level it bottomed at last time The uranium ETF
Watch Two green weeks for the uranium ETF from its weekly 200 MA.
Source →WSB poster is long 10,000 C3.ai shares betting on Anthropic IPO ticker confusion
The author bets retail investors searching for the Anthropic IPO will mistakenly buy the ticker AI.
C3AI (The Anthropic Identity Play) Ticker: AI I just spent the entire week watching my portfolio get absolutely pulverized.Source →
Most argued
by comments per upvoteA proposed national data-center moratorium is flagged as a risk to AI earnings stories
The author argues a proposed national moratorium on data-center construction would undermine AI earnings stories and hyperscaler capex, citing ING trying to sell data-center loans.
Democrats want to freeze data center construction and that is a real problem for AI stocks Progressive lawmakers are pushingSource →
Nvidia approached Apollo to finance small AI data centers in retrofitted telecom buildings
A reposted news item says Nvidia approached Apollo to finance a distributed network of small AI data centers retrofitted into telecom buildings across up to 20 states.
Nvidia Approaches Apollo to Finance Network of Small AI Data Centers in Retrofitted Telecom Buildings Across 20 States "Nvidia hasSource →
Cooper Standard at $17.87 pitched as a deep-value turnaround
The author argues deleveraging and margin expansion could drive EPS above $10 within a few years.
Cooper Standard Holdings Has Entered Deeeeeeeep Value;Source →
WSB poster bets Unity will reject Silver Lake's roughly $54-per-share offer
The author expects OTM call implied volatility to expand and the stock to break out if Unity rejects the bid.
Unity will deny sale U OTM leaps IV dropped on the news that silver lake is offering $25bil to acquire
OTM LEAPS implied volatility dropped on news that Silver Lake is offering $25 billion to acquire Unity.
Watch Unity's response to Silver Lake's offer.
Source →