humacapital 5.0 11 ideas

Author is long gold due to structural trends of ever-rising debts, money printing, fiat devaluation, de-dollarization, and US reshoring.

The author is doubling down on a long position in Tesla, acting on the catalyst that SpaceX may offer preferential share allotments to investors in other Musk companies.

A US victory would strengthen the petrodollar and weaken the Eastern power bloc's push for a petroyuan, removing a major structural tailwind for gold demand.

The author holds a bearish outlook on the broad equity market for the remainder of the year, prompting the closure of unhedged long positions.

The market is underpricing geopolitical risk as a major conflict appears to be escalating, not de-escalating, with long-lasting economic effects.

Long Meta on the thematic view that AI-augmented humans using wearable tech like Meta Glasses will prove more economically viable and scalable than humanoid robots, capturing the value in physical AI applications.

1. THE FACT: Towards the end of next year, we will have midterm elections. It is very likely (imo 90%) that Dems will win the House. Historically, during the 12 months leading up to the midterms, the SP500 returns only 3.2% on average (compared to the 8.4% average, and 14.5% in the 12 months). 2. THE BRIDGE: A likely Democratic win in the House midterms historically correlates with significantly lower SP500 returns in the preceding 12 months. 3. THE VERDICT: Short SPX or reduce exposure due to historical underperformance leading up to midterms with a likely Democratic House win.

1. THE FACT: Gold is getting ready for a potential breakout to new ATH following this week's FOMC. Price action since the recent parabolic run looks very strong; successive HLs and HHs following the initial pullback and back near ATH within just two months. 2. THE BRIDGE: Strong technical indicators (HLs, HHs, near ATH) suggest an imminent breakout. 3. THE VERDICT: Long Gold in anticipation of a breakout to new ATH.

1. THE FACT: The Bitcoin bear market will continue until there are clear signs of AI progress slowing down. The marginal dollar prefers betting on AGI rather than fiat devaluation. 2. THE BRIDGE: As long as AI progress continues, capital will flow into AGI bets, away from BTC. 3. THE VERDICT: Short BTC until AI progress slows.

1. THE FACT: Speaker closed crypto longs and re-shorted equities. 2. THE BRIDGE: This implies a bearish outlook on crypto, aligning with a broader short equity stance. 3. THE VERDICT: Short crypto.

1. THE FACT: Speaker closed crypto longs and re-shorted equities. 2. THE BRIDGE: The speaker is actively taking a short position on equities. 3. THE VERDICT: Short equities.