Beth Kindig 6.4 4 ideas

Nvidia beat estimates with $78B forecast (vs $72.8B consensus) and confirmed supply constraints will persist into 2027. Data center revenue hit a record. The "AI Bubble" narrative relies on oversupply; however, the current reality is extreme supply constraint (especially in HBM memory). When supply is constrained, margins expand and pricing power holds. The recent pullback offers a valuation reset (April lows on price-to-sales). LONG. The fundamentals (revenue growth + backlog) contradict the "scare trade" sentiment. Macro fatigue or broader economic slowdown affecting capex.

"On an earnings ratio we are looking at April lows... This is a low bar for NVIDIA... likely to continue to flow because GPU generations are shipping in volume." The market has kept the stock range-bound due to fears over the Blackwell delay and valuation concerns. However, the shift to volume production for Blackwell Ultra means revenue recognition is imminent. The valuation has compressed relative to earnings growth, offering an asymmetric entry before the next guidance beat. LONG Delays in the "Vera Rubin" chip generation or geopolitical restrictions on China sales.