Samantha Dart

Goldman Sachs raised their Q2 Brent forecast by $10/bbl to $76. Dart notes that if flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain low for "another five weeks," prices could cross the $100/bbl threshold. While the US administration is trying to engineer lower prices (waivers, SPR talk), the physical reality of a supply disruption in the Strait creates an asymmetric upside risk for oil prices. The "war premium" is back. Long exposure to crude oil futures or energy producers. US Treasury intervention or a rapid de-escalation of the conflict leading to a price collapse.

Goldman Sachs raised their Q2 Brent forecast by $10/bbl to $76. Dart notes that if flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain low for "another five weeks," prices could cross the $100/bbl threshold. While the US administration is trying to engineer lower prices (waivers, SPR talk), the physical reality of a supply disruption in the Strait creates an asymmetric upside risk for oil prices. The "war premium" is back. Long exposure to crude oil futures or energy producers. US Treasury intervention or a rapid de-escalation of the conflict leading to a price collapse.