You see oil prices remaining over $100 a barrel for a while and that feeding through to inflation. If things progress in a negative way, we would probably take those rate cuts off of the forecast. Energy-driven inflation acts as a tax on the economy while simultaneously forcing central banks to abandon planned rate cuts. Higher-for-longer interest rates directly suppress the value of long-duration government bonds. SHORT. Sticky, supply-driven inflation removes the Federal Reserve's ability to ease monetary policy, driving yields higher across the curve. A severe macroeconomic recession caused by the energy shock could eventually force a flight to safety, bidding up long-term Treasuries despite inflation.