US10Y US 10-Year Treasury Yield : Bullish and Bearish Analyst Opinions

"Were you here when the ten year broke below four? So we're firmly under four at this point." Investors are selling risk assets and buying US Treasuries (pushing yields down/prices up) seeking safety amidst the war news. LONG Bonds (expecting lower yields) as the flight to quality continues. Inflationary pressure from spiking oil prices could eventually force yields back up.

"The reaction from this has been higher for your yields across the curve... Ten year yield that stands at 408, that also moves higher." While lower tariffs are theoretically disinflationary (which should lower yields), the market is selling bonds (raising yields). This suggests the market views the ruling as pro-growth (good for equities, bad for bonds) or is focusing on the "hot PCE" data mentioned earlier in the broadcast rather than the tariff news. WATCH. The bond market reaction is counter-intuitive to a "lower tariff" thesis, suggesting other macro factors (inflation data) are currently dominant. Yields continue to spike, putting pressure on the equity valuation multiples mentioned in the first trade idea.

1. THE FACT: The 10Y Note Yield surged to 4.26%, its highest level since September 2025. President Trump "does NOT want higher yields." 2. THE BRIDGE: If President Trump does not want higher yields, it implies potential policy actions or rhetoric aimed at suppressing them. However, the current surge indicates market forces are pushing yields higher despite this. A short position on the bond (long yield) would benefit from continued upward pressure on yields, especially if Trump's stated preference is ignored or ineffective. 3. THE VERDICT: Short 10Y Note (long yield) as yields are surging despite political opposition, indicating strong market forces.

1. THE FACT: The speaker makes several predictions for 2026: US Ten year yield hits 5%, SPX goes below 6000, Bitcoin goes below 60,000. 2. THE BRIDGE: These are direct predictions for specific assets. 3. THE VERDICT: Long US10Y (yields rising implies bond prices falling), Short SPX, Short BTC.

1. THE FACT: Chicago Fed President Austin Goolsbee opposes "frontloading" rate cuts, stating "Inflation has been above target for four and a half years, and it's going up." 2. THE BRIDGE: A hawkish stance from a Fed official, citing persistent and rising inflation, suggests less aggressive rate cuts or even potential for further tightening, which would support the dollar and potentially higher bond yields. 3. THE VERDICT: Long USD / US10Y due to hawkish Fed sentiment on inflation and rate cuts.

1. THE FACT: The 10-year yield has been in a downtrend of lower highs and lower lows since May. It made its first higher low at the end of November, and now, at 4.14%, it is on the verge of breaking out of this channel. 2. THE BRIDGE: A break out of this channel would signal a significant shift in bond market sentiment and potentially higher yields. 3. THE VERDICT: Monitor the 10-year yield for a potential breakout from its downtrend channel, which could indicate a shift towards higher yields.