Is the concentration on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix a burden? What to be careful about in the second half? | Kim Hanjin 3PRO TV Economist Dr. [Global Interview]

Summary

Economist Kim Han-jin discusses the current earnings-driven but highly concentrated stock market, comparing it to the dot-com bubble and highlighting macro headwinds including slowing US growth, sticky inflation, elevated interest rates, and a structurally weak Korean won. He emphasizes that the speed of the rally makes frequent corrections likely and identifies US Treasury yields as a critical risk indicator.

• The current rally is earnings-driven, not a bubble, but valuation and speed resemble mid-1998.
• Market concentration is extreme: top 5 S&P 500 stocks drive 50% of earnings growth; top 2 Korean stocks drive 65%.
• US macro quality has deteriorated: GDP growth slowing, inflation rising, and interest rates staying high.
• Federal debt structure has shifted toward more volatile private holders, increasing bond market instability.
• Oil price decline may be limited due to strategic reserve rebuilding and low private inventories.
• Korean won weakness is structural because of large US investment needs and low energy self-sufficiency.
• Foreign investors are repatriating profits from Korea, adding to won depreciation pressure.
• US 10-year Treasury yield above 4.75% would risk a 5% move and trigger a market correction.