Defensive positioning and health care stocks outperformed last week and that trend is likely to continue as the momentum trade comes under pressure, driven by higher oil and a stronger dollar weighing on risk assets.
A healthy rotation is underway from overconcentrated Mag7/tech into broader market sectors. Long-duration growth and technology will come under pressure as inflation risks rise and interest rates move higher, while financials, industrials, health care, and small caps benefit from broader participation.
Long-term bond yields are likely to move higher in the near term because AI capex spending is boosting both inflation and growth, and unless the Fed signals a preemptive pivot, the direction of travel for yields at the long end is up.
U.S. dollar positive due to insulation and haven bid.
The U.S. dollar is set for a positive environment because the U.S. economy is more insulated from the Iran war impacts compared to Asia and Europe, and there could be a haven bid if tensions escalate further, outweighing domestic inflation and growth challenges.