Long-term bond yields are likely to move higher in the near term because AI capex spending is boosting both inflation and growth, and unless the Fed signals a preemptive pivot, the direction of travel for yields at the long end is up.
U.S. dollar positive due to insulation and haven bid.
The U.S. dollar is set for a positive environment because the U.S. economy is more insulated from the Iran war impacts compared to Asia and Europe, and there could be a haven bid if tensions escalate further, outweighing domestic inflation and growth challenges.