JPY Japanese Yen Loading... : Bullish and Bearish Analyst Opinions
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06:25
Jul 16
Jul 16
Short CHF, HKD, and JPY for carry.
With central banks staying higher for longer, the currency carry trade remains highly favorable when funding through low-yielding currencies like the Swiss Franc, Hong Kong Dollar, and Japanese Yen to buy higher-yielding emerging market assets.
HIGH
10:33
Jul 10
Jul 10
Yen weakness persists despite interventions
Japan's growth equation is lackluster compared to the US, and fundamentals do not support sustained yen appreciation. Interventions are expected but will not be very effective given growth dynamics, so yen weakness is likely to persist.
MED
10:31
Jul 10
Jul 10
Japanese pension repatriation lifts domestic assets.
Japan's finance minister called for pension funds to reallocate domestically. The GPIF alone runs $1.8 trillion and a shift back to Japan would be a seismic change in global capital flows, akin to QT. Japanese assets should benefit as the repatriation of capital supports the yen, JGBs, and Japanese equities.
MED
08:19
Jul 10
Jul 10
Yen weakness persistent due to yield gap.
Ministry of Finance interventions have failed to support the yen. The 300+ bps yield differential between the Fed and BOJ is not likely to disappear soon, keeping the yen under pressure. Yen weakness will persist in the near term.
HIGH
06:53
Jul 10
Jul 10
Pension repatriation supports JGBs and yen.
The Japanese finance minister's call for pension funds to invest more domestically is a response to bond market discomfort with inflation risk. Anticipation of repatriation by giant funds like GPIF is boosting JGBs and the yen, as traders unwind short positions and front-run potential flows. Near-term positioning supports JGBs and the yen even before actual fund movements.
MED
22:43
Jul 09
Jul 09
Author questions the market narrative that Japanese fiscal concerns are driving yen weakness against the dollar, citing Japan's stronger relative fiscal position and low interest bills.
LOW
06:50
Jul 07
Jul 07
Long yen as substantially undervalued
The yen is substantially undervalued—perhaps by more than 20% around 130 per dollar—because interest rate differentials are misunderstood, the BOJ will hike rates further, and markets will eventually align with fundamentals. Intervention can be effective when the direction deviates from fundamentals.
HIGH
01:41
Jul 07
Jul 07
The author notes a lack of bullish sentiment on the yen, which makes them lean slightly bullish, but no explicit position is stated.
LOW
23:40
Jul 06
Jul 06
Hedge funds have turned most bearish on the yen since 2007, while a former FX czar sees the currency as 20% undervalued.
19:41
Jul 06
Jul 06
Hedge funds hold the most bearish position on the yen since 2007 according to CFTC data for the week ending June 30.
11:20
Jul 02
Jul 02
The Yen has strong upside if BOJ hikes.
The Japanese Yen is very cheap at current levels and has good upside potential to recover if the Bank of Japan takes decisive action on rate hikes.
MED
04:10
Jul 02
Jul 02
Japan's Ministry of Finance could intervene abruptly to wipe out speculative yen positions, according to a Reuters report.
14:37
Jul 01
Jul 01
The author argues that JPY, KRW, and TWD are incredibly undervalued and favors appreciation of Asian majors, but this is a macroeconomic analysis without a stated position or trade.
LOW
14:35
Jul 01
Jul 01
The author notes that Japanese export volumes have not responded to the weaker yen as expected, with firms prioritizing profit margins over volume.
LOW
09:32
Jul 01
Jul 01
Watch yen for intervention near 163
The yen is hovering near 163-164 against the dollar, and the market is nervous about further Japanese intervention. A strong US payroll number could push the dollar higher and weaken the yen further, creating a moment where authorities want to take action, especially on the Friday US holiday for maximum impact. Watch for rhetoric from policymakers to see if they signal they have had enough of the weakness and are ready to act.
MED
07:11
Jun 30
Jun 30
Short yen as rate gap persists
The yen is sliding to 40-year lows against the dollar, and the decline is driven by wide Japan-US rate differentials that show no sign of narrowing soon. The yen's grind higher is orderly, making immediate intervention less likely, so yen bears will remain in control until the rate gap closes.
HIGH
06:51
Jun 30
Jun 30
Yen weakness persists on wide rate gap
The yen will remain under heavy pressure because the rate differential against the dollar is extremely wide—the BOJ policy rate is only 1% despite officials seeing a neutral rate around 2%, while the Fed could even hike this year. Intervention has failed, and short positioning is already very large, so only a decline in US yields could trigger profit-taking. Until Japanese authorities actually raise rates to support the currency, the bias is firmly to the downside.
HIGH
03:56
Jun 30
Jun 30
Watch yen for stability then buy.
The yen is at a 40-year low with more downside likely; once stability appears it will be an opportunity to buy the yen, but not yet.
LOW
20:17
Jun 28
Jun 28
The author proposes a hypothetical macro strategy of shorting JPY and going long JGBs based on daily regime probabilities, but frames it as an interesting idea rather than a current position.
19:40
Jun 22
Jun 22
The author considers taking a short position on the yen against the dollar, anticipating potential US intervention to support Japan.
22:37
Jun 12
Jun 12
The author argues that China can autonomously revalue the CNY via the fix while the KRW and JPY have overshot fundamentals relative to rate differentials, implying a neutral macro observation.
LOW
14:33
May 28
May 28
The tweet presents charts showing the trade-weighted real Japanese yen trading at its lowest level since 1971, but offers no personal position or forward call.
LOW
11:13
May 26
May 26
Short the Japanese yen
The Bank of Japan is refusing to raise rates despite inflation, keeping the neutral rate much higher than the policy rate. This gap makes shorting the yen a no-brainer trade, as carry works against the yen and investors are paid to go against it.
HIGH
09:04
May 20
May 20
Yen and sterling exposed to oil.
The Japanese yen and sterling are most sensitive to higher oil prices due to their energy import exposure, and both face additional domestic headwinds (UK political risks, Japanese fiscal expansion), making them vulnerable to further downside.
MED
07:58
May 18
May 18
Speaker discloses FX basket with explicit position 'Long Yen' — first-person currency long.
HIGH
13:02
May 16
May 16
Brad Setser argues the yen's weakness is manageable for Japan's Ministry of Finance due to ample reserves and interest income, downplaying risks of defending the 160 level.
HIGH
05:52
May 15
May 15
The author sarcastically dismisses a bullish call on cheap Asian currencies as a "widow maker trade," implying high risk of reversal despite the claimed trend start.
HIGH
12:11
May 11
May 11
The author sarcastically flags Asian FX as a potential widow maker trade while quoting a bullish thesis on the dollar savings pile shift, but hedges with "might" and sarcasm.
HIGH
11:41
May 07
May 07
Fade yen strength on intervention spikes; short yen/long USD/JPY as intervention effectiveness deteriorates and structural dollar demand overwhelms BOJ capacity.
HIGH
07:16
May 07
May 07
The author expresses uncertainty about the Japanese yen's direction, noting it could weaken below 130 or strengthen above 180, but highlights the government's ample reserves to intervene if desired.
HIGH
About JPY Analyst Coverage
Buzzberg tracks JPY (Japanese Yen) across 28 sources. 25 bullish vs 15 bearish calls from 69 analysts. Sentiment: predominantly bullish (7%). 140 total trade ideas tracked. Past 7 days: 1 bearish. Latest voices: John Woods, Phoenix Kalen, Guy Johnson.