Dollar weakening on policy uncertainty, fading exceptionalism.
ANZ expects the Fed on an extended hold with no near-term hikes or cuts. Structurally US exceptionalism is fading, and the largest driver of dollar weakness going forward will be US policy uncertainty around midterms, tariffs and other policy dynamics; therefore the dollar should stay softer into the next year or two.
Safe haven demand from the US-Iran war, correlation with higher oil prices, and continued equity market support keep the dollar supported in the near term.