Calls
5
Kenneth Rogoff
Professor of Economics, Harvard University
Win Rate
33.3%
return
+1.5%
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Ticker
Side
Mentions
First Call
Call Price
P&L
Thesis
Theme
Source
Short
Apr 15
$87.00
+5.5%
The Iran war and ongoing tariffs are stagflationary shocks that will push interest rates up over the medium term, as military spending, populism, and high debt levels drive inflation expectations higher and make inflation sticky.
Bonds & Rates
Long
Aug 28
$82.84
-0.7%
Rogoff says the US debt level is already difficult, and a future shock such as a war, cyberwar, or China-Taiwan conflict would push up long-term interest rates; in that environment the Fed cannot just cut rates or print money if markets are pushing yields higher.
Bonds & Rates
Long
Aug 28
$107.51
-0.3%
The dollar's reserve currency status faces long-run erosion: China will gain a larger share of the reserve currency market and the euro benefits as U.S. sanctions push others away, but the biggest 5-10 year threat is internal because the U.S. is not prepared to balance its budget.
FX & Currencies
Long
Apr 02
$33.23
-
Rogoff explicitly mentions the Japanese yen and Korean won are at "ridiculously low" values relative to the dollar and likely to revert to mean. Currencies significantly undervalued based on purchasing power parity tend to appreciate over time through reversion. Expect appreciation of these currencies against the dollar, making LONG positions favorable. Continued dollar strength or regional economic issues could delay reversion.
Rogoff explicitly mentions the Japanese yen and Korean won are at "ridiculously low" values relative to the dollar and likely to revert to mean. Currencies significantly undervalued based on purchasing power parity tend to appreciate over time through reversion. Expect appreciation of these currencies against the dollar, making LONG positions favorable. Continued dollar strength or regional economic issues could delay reversion.
FX & Currencies
Short
Apr 02
$50.42
-
Rogoff states the US dollar is very high and likely to depreciate, especially against Asian currencies, with a guess of 5% down in 2026. The dollar is out of line with purchasing power parity, and historical patterns show reversion to mean tends to occur slowly. Expect dollar depreciation, making SHORT positions on the dollar potentially profitable. Rapid resolution of the Iran war or strengthening US policies could sustain dollar strength.
Rogoff states the US dollar is very high and likely to depreciate, especially against Asian currencies, with a guess of 5% down in 2026. The dollar is out of line with purchasing power parity, and historical patterns show reversion to mean tends to occur slowly. Expect dollar depreciation, making SHORT positions on the dollar potentially profitable. Rapid resolution of the Iran war or strengthening US policies could sustain dollar strength.
FX & Currencies
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Kenneth Rogoff has 5 trade ideas tracked on Buzzberg across 4 tickers since April 2026. Most covered: TLT, DXY, CNY.
