#488
Alpha Score 35.2
tyler_neville_
Macro trader
Ticker
Side
Mentions
Opened
Entry
P&L
Thesis
Theme
Source
Short
May 21
$83.65
-2.0%
Persistent inflation above 3.5% and soon above 4%, structural damage from energy price spikes, and lack of meaningful decline in inflation until back half of the year support short bond positioning. This was the highest conviction trade over the last few weeks, executed via TLT puts.
Macro
Long
May 21
$59.95
-2.1%
US oil and gas companies are printing cash from higher oil prices, have improved balance sheets, and are buying back stock, making the sector a strong performer. The strategic reserve drain and geopolitical risks support elevated oil prices, benefiting XLE.
Energy
Long
Apr 09
$231.73
-3.0%
The author is explicitly bullish on the autonomous defense sector due to a massive projected budget increase, framing it as a national security imperative and long-term macro theme.
The author is explicitly bullish on the autonomous defense sector due to a massive projected budget increase, framing it as a national security imperative and long-term macro theme.
NatSec
Long
Apr 07
$427.65
-4.7%
The author endorses a stagflation narrative where record debt and forced rate cuts will make real assets like gold perform well.
The author endorses a stagflation narrative where record debt and forced rate cuts will make real assets like gold perform well.
Macro
Long
Mar 23
$86.35
-1.2%
With market expectations for a rate hike collapsing from 90% to 0%, the contrarian opportunity is to go long duration/easing trades after weak hands were shaken out.
With market expectations for a rate hike collapsing from 90% to 0%, the contrarian opportunity is to go long duration/easing trades after weak hands were shaken out.
Macro
Long
Mar 05
$85.41
-3.4%
Crowded hedge fund positioning is causing an unwind in Consumer Staples (seen in call skew), providing a short-term tactical opportunity to fade the move and buy the sector.
Crowded hedge fund positioning is causing an unwind in Consumer Staples (seen in call skew), providing a short-term tactical opportunity to fade the move and buy the sector.
Consumer
Long
Mar 05
$58.30
-1.7%
The author believes the popular carry trade (e.g., short JPY) is at risk of unwinding due to rising foreign exchange volatility, implying a potential strengthening of funding currencies like the Japanese Yen.
The author believes the popular carry trade (e.g., short JPY) is at risk of unwinding due to rising foreign exchange volatility, implying a potential strengthening of funding currencies like the Japanese Yen.
Macro
Long
Feb 19
$118.50
-12.3%
The author predicts an imminent government stimulus in the form of a home buying credit, which would act as a direct catalyst for homebuilder stocks.
The author predicts an imminent government stimulus in the form of a home buying credit, which would act as a direct catalyst for homebuilder stocks.
Other
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