Name: A New Era Is Beginning In Markets | Weekly Roundup
Uploaded: 2026-06-19T07:00:03+00:00
Duration: 3864 s

Speakers

Felix Jauvin — Co-Host, Forward Guidance

tyler_neville_ — Macro trader

Quinn Thompson — Co-Host, Forward Guidance / Founder, Lekker Capital

Summary

The hosts dissect Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting, declaring traditional forward guidance dead. They argue peak hawkishness has arrived and rate hikes priced into the market won't happen as oil-driven disinflation takes hold. The discussion covers tightening liquidity, the AI capex boom, MicroStrategy's liquidity crunch, Bitcoin's waning appeal amid an AI productivity surge, and a contrarian buy signal in gold.

Warsh simplifies Fed communication and ends forward guidance; rate volatility likely rises.
Peak hawkishness: dot plot hikes unlikely as oil drops 30% and shelter inflation peaks; long SOFR trade.
AI infrastructure capex remains massive and high-yield credit intact; money rotating to AI bottleneck stocks.
MicroStrategy's distress offers a potential bounce if management raises cash to address liquidity concerns.
Bitcoin faces high opportunity cost as AI creates real growth alternatives; AVOID Bitcoin.
Gold sentiment hits extremes (put-call skew at 10-year high, CTA positioning collapsed); contrarian long setup.

Ideas

Felix Jauvin Co-Host, Forward Guidance 9:18

Fade Fed hikes, buy SOFR.

The Fed's dot plot signals hikes, but underlying inflation drivers (oil down ~30%, shelter peaking, tariffs unwound) point to disinflation. Market has front-run hawkishness with record shorts in SOFR; the capitulatory moment of peak hawkishness has passed, hikes won't materialize, so long SOFR / short-end Treasuries benefits as rates fall.

tyler_neville_ Macro trader 26:10

Buy AI bottleneck stocks.

AI capex cycle is fully intact with massive spending through 2030. High-yield credit spreads are not budging, providing free-money financing. Hyperscaler cash flows are strained, but money is rotating to AI bottleneck stocks (semiconductor equipment, memory, etc.) that are ripping higher. The trend is set to continue until credit spreads blow out.

Quinn Thompson Co-Host, Forward Guidance / Founder, Lekker Capital 43:09

MSTR bounce if liquidity concerns resolved.

MSTR is trading near liquidation value, not bankrupt. Management needs to raise cash to cover debt service and preferred dividends instead of continuing to lever up. If they address liquidity concerns, the whole capital structure could rally sharply; otherwise it's a slow bleed. The setup is growing more interesting as distress deepens.

tyler_neville_ Macro trader 53:27

Avoid Bitcoin, opportunity cost too high.

The AI productivity boom is creating real growth and a generational shift in capital allocation away from non-yielding assets. Bitcoin's opportunity cost is now too high compared to AI infrastructure investments and other productive real-world innovations.

tyler_neville_ Macro trader 60:46

Contrarian buy gold on extreme bearishness.

Gold sentiment has reached extreme bearish extremes: 6-month put-call skew near 10-year highs, CTA positions collapsed to the 1st percentile. The sharp pendulum swing from extreme bullishness to extreme bearishness sets up a contrarian buy signal for gold.

This Forward Guidance video, published June 19, 2026, features Felix Jauvin, tyler_neville_, Quinn Thompson discussing SOFR futures, AIQ, MSTR, BTC, GLD. 5 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Felix Jauvin, tyler_neville_, Quinn Thompson · Tickers: SOFR futures, AIQ, MSTR, BTC, GLD

A New Era Is Beginning In Markets | Weekly Roundup

Summary

Ideas

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