Felix Jauvin 5.0 105 ideas
Co-Host, Forward Guidance
After 1 day
51%winrate
+0.5% avg
38W / 37L · 75/83 ideas
After 1 week
58%winrate
+0.3% avg
42W / 31L · 73/83 ideas
After 1 month
55%winrate
-0.0% avg
28W / 23L · 51/83 ideas
Recent positions
TickerDirEntryP&LDate
By sector
ETF
67 ideas
+0.3%
currency
13 ideas
+5.7%
Crypto
8 ideas
-9.0%
Commodity
8 ideas
-0.8%
index
4 ideas
-1.0%
Stock
4 ideas
+0.1%
sector
1 ideas
Top tickers (by frequency)
SPY
13 ideas
33% W
-1.4%
USD
10 ideas
75% W
+5.7%
TLT
8 ideas
100% W
+3.7%
USO
8 ideas
40% W
+1.4%
BTC
7 ideas
0% W
-9.0%
Best and worst calls
Best calls
SILVER LONG
+50.5%
1. THE FACT: A former head of commodities at Bridgewater, who has been writing about the silver thesis for over a year, ...
Dec 28
USO LONG
+44.3%
The author believes the commodity forward curve (likely oil) is mispricing the duration of supply shortages, creating an...
Mar 05
USD LONG
+13.2%
Dollar shortage szn
Mar 09
Worst calls
WTI SHORT
-44.3%
Who knows whether its valid or not, but the oil curve is fading the Iran war so far and seems to think this wraps up pre...
Mar 05
USO SHORT
-27.7%
The recent closing price of oil invalidates the economic re-acceleration thesis, suggesting a bearish outlook for oil pr...
Mar 07
SILVER LONG
-15.9%
1. THE FACT: "New episode out with my friend @abcampbell , who’s been pounding the table for over a year on the silver t...
Jan 14
Long equities ahead of midterm fiscal stimulus.
With consumer sentiment at all-time lows and the midterm elections approaching, there is significant room for fiscal stimulus to boost the economy and stock market. The current budget deficit (around 5% of GDP) leaves room for additional spending, which will likely be deployed to support Main Street and, by extension, equity prices.
Co-Host, Forward Guidance
Go long dominant GPU providers as frontier AI models outpace available compute supply, making compute scarcity the primary actionable theme in the AI sector.
NVDA
MED
Apr 14, 16:07
Co-Host, Forward Guidance
Long Bitcoin as it is expected to outperform in an environment where compute demand is endless and software valuations rerate lower.
BTC
MED
Apr 14, 14:44
Co-Host, Forward Guidance
Speaker stated "SMH is less than 1% from an all-time high" and "anything associated with this compute demand is just breaking out right now." He also said "the market is underpricing the demand for compute here." AI scaling is real and creating a nonlinear surge in demand for compute (GPUs, semiconductors), while supply is constrained (GPU availability collapsing). LONG because semiconductor exposure (via SMH) is a direct beneficiary of a sustained, underappreciated AI-driven compute boom. A broad equity market downturn that drags down all sectors, including semis, or a sudden slowdown in AI infrastructure investment.
SMH
Forward Guidance
Apr 10, 07:00
Co-Host, Forward Guidance
Speaker stated, "Bitcoin's diverging from software now... Bitcoin's actually sniffing out maybe some global liquidity relief." He tied this to Trump needing to "pull some rabbits out of his hat" for the midterms. The anticipation of stimulative policy actions from the Trump administration to improve economic/political prospects could boost global liquidity, which Bitcoin is perceived to benefit from. LONG Bitcoin as a tactical bet on forthcoming policy responses that increase liquidity and risk appetite. No policy materializes, liquidity conditions tighten, or Bitcoin fails to act as a liquidity proxy.
BTC
Forward Guidance
Apr 10, 07:00
Co-Host, Forward Guidance
Speaker stated the IGV software ETF "looks like death," breaking its daily, weekly, and monthly moving averages. He explicitly said "AI is actually eating software's lunch." The disruptive force of AI is causing premium compression and anticipated earnings deterioration in the traditional software sector, which is not yet reflected in earnings numbers. AVOID because the software sector faces structural headwinds and de-rating as capital and value shift toward AI infrastructure and compute. Software sector earnings surprise to the upside, triggering a short squeeze and reversal in the downtrend.
IGV
Forward Guidance
Apr 10, 07:00
Co-Host, Forward Guidance
The Hyperliquid protocol is gaining significant traction and capital inflows, indicating strong market confidence in its decentralized perpetual futures exchange.
HYPR
Apr 06, 15:51
Co-Host, Forward Guidance
The author's high-conviction call for imminent military deployment is a forward-looking catalyst for defense/aerospace stocks.
ITA
HIGH
Apr 05, 03:25
Co-Host, Forward Guidance
Speaker explicitly states, "I don't really see a good case to be made for financials here." Higher inflation and restrictive policy hurt consumers via a negative wealth effect and higher living costs, leading to weaker demand and potential credit problems. This environment pressures financial sector profitability. The sector is unattractive due to the looming risks of credit deterioration and weaker economic activity. Aggressive Fed stimulus or yield curve control that relieves credit market pressure.
XLF
Forward Guidance
Apr 03, 07:00
Co-Host, Forward Guidance
The author is taking a short position because they believe the market is at a local peak, possibly using a change in conditions (implied by "right as the weather changes") as a timing signal.
SPY
HIGH
Mar 28, 14:07
Co-Host, Forward Guidance
Felix explicitly states he is "still really long the natural gas torqued equities in the US, long the coal equities." The destruction of major LNG export infrastructure (Qatar) is a multi-year, multi-billion dollar problem that structurally removes supply, making other global energy assets more valuable. These equities are positioned to benefit from persistent energy supply shocks and the resulting higher price environment. A rapid, peaceful resolution to Middle East conflicts that restores supply flows and market confidence.
UNG
Forward Guidance
Mar 20, 14:04
Co-Host, Forward Guidance
Felix states his "big big trade is the agricultural stuff" and prefers the base commodities over fertilizer equities. Agricultural commodities encapsulate spiking input costs (fuel, fertilizer) while farm profit margins are at multi-year lows, limiting supply growth. Demand is highly inelastic compared to energy. Higher prices are the necessary "cure" to balance the market, creating an asymmetric long setup, especially during the critical spring planting season. A sudden collapse in energy prices that rapidly reduces production costs and improves farm economics.
DBA
Forward Guidance
Mar 20, 14:04
Co-Host, Forward Guidance
Felix states he is "short Japan, short South Korea, short Europe." These regions are most exposed to the Hormuz Strait energy shock (high import dependence) and have central banks with limited flexibility to support growth, creating an economic vulnerability. Their equities are more effective shorts than broad U.S. indices like the NASDAQ to express a view on the global energy crisis. A swift de-escalation and reopening of the Strait, coupled with massive, coordinated global central bank stimulus.
Co-Host, Forward Guidance