#401
Alpha Score 46.8
Felix Jauvin
Co-Host, Forward Guidance
Ticker
Side
Mentions
Opened
Entry
P&L
Thesis
Theme
Source
Long
Mar 14
$27.86
-0.0%
Long the US Dollar, as the author strongly endorses the technical view that the DXY is breaking a major resistance level, which is expected to lead to significant further strength.
Long the US Dollar, as the author strongly endorses the technical view that the DXY is breaking a major resistance level, which is expected to lead to significant further strength.
Macro
Long
Feb 20
$468.71
-13.1%
The author advises a defensive, capital preservation strategy by holding physical assets until an unspecified period of market turmoil or risk passes.
The author advises a defensive, capital preservation strategy by holding physical assets until an unspecified period of market turmoil or risk passes.
Macro
Long
Feb 13
$683.76
+10.5%
The author's macro framework suggests a recent, unacknowledged recession has concluded, and the economy is now in a recovery phase, which is bullish for broad equities.
The author's macro framework suggests a recent, unacknowledged recession has concluded, and the economy is now in a recovery phase, which is bullish for broad equities.
Macro
Long
Mar 05
$96.31
+46.5%
The author believes the commodity forward curve (likely oil) is mispricing the duration of supply shortages, creating an opportunity for longer-dated contracts to reprice higher.
The author believes the commodity forward curve (likely oil) is mispricing the duration of supply shortages, creating an opportunity for longer-dated contracts to reprice higher.
Energy
Long
Apr 10
$71810.00
-9.4%
Speaker stated, "Bitcoin's diverging from software now... Bitcoin's actually sniffing out maybe some global liquidity relief." He tied this to Trump needing to "pull some rabbits out of his hat" for the midterms. The anticipation of stimulative policy actions from the Trump administration to improve economic/political prospects could boost global liquidity, which Bitcoin is perceived to benefit from. LONG Bitcoin as a tactical bet on forthcoming policy responses that increase liquidity and risk appetite. No policy materializes, liquidity conditions tighten, or Bitcoin fails to act as a liquidity proxy.
Speaker stated, "Bitcoin's diverging from software now... Bitcoin's actually sniffing out maybe some global liquidity relief." He tied this to Trump needing to "pull some rabbits out of his hat" for the midterms. The anticipation of stimulative policy actions from the Trump administration to improve economic/political prospects could boost global liquidity, which Bitcoin is perceived to benefit from. LONG Bitcoin as a tactical bet on forthcoming policy responses that increase liquidity and risk appetite. No policy materializes, liquidity conditions tighten, or Bitcoin fails to act as a liquidity proxy.
Crypto
Long
Feb 27
$406.37
+54.2%
The author believes the AI/compute sector will continue to expand as increased capacity creates new use cases and demand, forming a self-reinforcing growth cycle.
The author believes the AI/compute sector will continue to expand as increased capacity creates new use cases and demand, forming a self-reinforcing growth cycle.
AI/Semi
Long
May 31
$68.11
+9.8%
Buy HYPE as author views it as the standout token in a deteriorating landscape, citing superior tokenomics and genuine team/token alignment as structural differentiators driving outperformance during the current crypto churn cycle.
Buy HYPE as author views it as the standout token in a deteriorating landscape, citing superior tokenomics and genuine team/token alignment as structural differentiators driving outperformance during the current crypto churn cycle.
Crypto
Short
May 08
$79434.00
+18.1%
Gold has strong catalysts from China buying, inflation, and policy uncertainty, while Bitcoin lacks similar support. Selling Bitcoin to buy gold is a favorable rotation.
Crypto
Long
Apr 14
$194.22
+10.6%
Go long dominant GPU providers as frontier AI models outpace available compute supply, making compute scarcity the primary actionable theme in the AI sector.
Go long dominant GPU providers as frontier AI models outpace available compute supply, making compute scarcity the primary actionable theme in the AI sector.
AI/Semi
Long
Mar 20
$26.82
+0.3%
Felix states his "big big trade is the agricultural stuff" and prefers the base commodities over fertilizer equities. Agricultural commodities encapsulate spiking input costs (fuel, fertilizer) while farm profit margins are at multi-year lows, limiting supply growth. Demand is highly inelastic compared to energy. Higher prices are the necessary "cure" to balance the market, creating an asymmetric long setup, especially during the critical spring planting season. A sudden collapse in energy prices that rapidly reduces production costs and improves farm economics.
Felix states his "big big trade is the agricultural stuff" and prefers the base commodities over fertilizer equities. Agricultural commodities encapsulate spiking input costs (fuel, fertilizer) while farm profit margins are at multi-year lows, limiting supply growth. Demand is highly inelastic compared to energy. Higher prices are the necessary "cure" to balance the market, creating an asymmetric long setup, especially during the critical spring planting season. A sudden collapse in energy prices that rapidly reduces production costs and improves farm economics.
Other
Short
Mar 20
$129.34
-63.0%
Felix states he is "short Japan, short South Korea, short Europe." These regions are most exposed to the Hormuz Strait energy shock (high import dependence) and have central banks with limited flexibility to support growth, creating an economic vulnerability. Their equities are more effective shorts than broad U.S. indices like the NASDAQ to express a view on the global energy crisis. A swift de-escalation and reopening of the Strait, coupled with massive, coordinated global central bank stimulus.
Felix states he is "short Japan, short South Korea, short Europe." These regions are most exposed to the Hormuz Strait energy shock (high import dependence) and have central banks with limited flexibility to support growth, creating an economic vulnerability. Their equities are more effective shorts than broad U.S. indices like the NASDAQ to express a view on the global energy crisis. A swift de-escalation and reopening of the Strait, coupled with massive, coordinated global central bank stimulus.
Macro
Long
Mar 20
$12.27
-4.1%
Felix explicitly states he is "still really long the natural gas torqued equities in the US, long the coal equities." The destruction of major LNG export infrastructure (Qatar) is a multi-year, multi-billion dollar problem that structurally removes supply, making other global energy assets more valuable. These equities are positioned to benefit from persistent energy supply shocks and the resulting higher price environment. A rapid, peaceful resolution to Middle East conflicts that restores supply flows and market confidence.
Felix explicitly states he is "still really long the natural gas torqued equities in the US, long the coal equities." The destruction of major LNG export infrastructure (Qatar) is a multi-year, multi-billion dollar problem that structurally removes supply, making other global energy assets more valuable. These equities are positioned to benefit from persistent energy supply shocks and the resulting higher price environment. A rapid, peaceful resolution to Middle East conflicts that restores supply flows and market confidence.
Energy
Long
Mar 14
$30.00
-0.8%
The author is bullish on natural gas producers, likely anticipating that geopolitical conflict will disrupt global energy supply and drive up commodity prices.
The author is bullish on natural gas producers, likely anticipating that geopolitical conflict will disrupt global energy supply and drive up commodity prices.
Energy
Short
Mar 14
$23.90
-16.4%
The author expects airline stocks to fall, likely due to the negative impact of rising oil prices (a consequence of geopolitical conflict) on unhedged carriers' fuel costs.
The author expects airline stocks to fall, likely due to the negative impact of rising oil prices (a consequence of geopolitical conflict) on unhedged carriers' fuel costs.
Other
Long
Mar 04
$100.16
-0.0%
The author is long SOFR calls as a long-term tail hedge, betting that a major AI-driven layoff cycle will force interest rates to fall significantly by 2028.
The author is long SOFR calls as a long-term tail hedge, betting that a major AI-driven layoff cycle will force interest rates to fall significantly by 2028.
Macro
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