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Geopolitical risks, including Trump threatening more attacks on Iran and focus on Saudi Arabia's Yanbu export terminal, tilt oil price risks to the upside, with Brent already back above $100 per barrel.
European stocks resilient, strong earnings, deal optimism
European equities, represented by the STOXX 600, are resilient and near all-time highs despite multi-month high natural gas prices and geopolitical headwinds. Optimism for an eventual deal, a high bar to price a growth shock from the conflict, strong Q2 earnings, and rising PMIs support outperformance over US and Asian stocks, and Europe also offers an offset for tech-related angst.
European stocks face downside from high expectations.
While European macroeconomic data has shown resilience, risks are tilting lower due to rising natural gas prices, low inventories, a diesel supply crunch, and political risks. Given that earnings expectations have been revised higher, any economic fragility could lead to significant downside disappointment for European equities.
The AI hardware and tech trade across South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan is resuming a healthy rally following a valuation reset and the flushing out of retail leverage, supported by strong earnings and a lack of immediate macro headwinds.
Gold is supported by persistent central bank buying (e.g., PBoC) and returning Chinese retail demand. Even a hot CPI report is not damaging, and gold could move toward $4,500.
The tech trade today is unambiguously positive to chip names, driven by overnight outperformance in Asia, and despite noise in other tech areas, chip names are getting bid.
Adam Linton has 6 trade ideas tracked on Buzzberg across 5 tickers since February 2026. Ranked #767 on the Buzzberg Alpha leaderboard. Most covered: UKGILT, USD/JPY, BNO.
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