Calls
19
#1043
Alpha Score 20.2
Jim Bianco
President, Bianco Research
Win Rate
47.4%
return
-1.5%
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Ticker
Side
Mentions
First Call
Call Price
P&L
Thesis
Theme
Source
Long
Mar 04
$91.56
+54.7%
"I would probably term them more fair value... they're probably a decent investment that you can put your money into and probably get mid-single digit returns." Commodities have run up due to Asian demand (hedging against local economic failure) and the realization of a sticky inflation world. While no longer "cheap," they fit the "4-5-6" return model and offer protection against geopolitical shocks or sticky inflation. LONG (Hold) for steady, mid-single-digit compounding. A resolution to Asian economic woes could lead to selling (profit-taking) from Asian investors.
"I would probably term them more fair value... they're probably a decent investment that you can put your money into and probably get mid-single digit returns." Commodities have run up due to Asian demand (hedging against local economic failure) and the realization of a sticky inflation world. While no longer "cheap," they fit the "4-5-6" return model and offer protection against geopolitical shocks or sticky inflation. LONG (Hold) for steady, mid-single-digit compounding. A resolution to Asian economic woes could lead to selling (profit-taking) from Asian investors.
Commodities
Short
Feb 11
$88.06
+6.6%
Payrolls surprised upside (130k), and inflation remains sticky around 3%. The market is perpetually pricing in cuts that don't happen. If data stays strong, the neutral rate is likely higher (4%), meaning yields must rise (prices fall). SHORT US Treasuries (Expect higher yields). A sudden economic cliff dive necessitating emergency cuts.
Payrolls surprised upside (130k), and inflation remains sticky around 3%. The market is perpetually pricing in cuts that don't happen. If data stays strong, the neutral rate is likely higher (4%), meaning yields must rise (prices fall). SHORT US Treasuries (Expect higher yields). A sudden economic cliff dive necessitating emergency cuts.
Bonds & Rates
Long
Jun 17
$86.27
-4.7%
A Fed that is committed to fighting inflation and is vigilant about price stability should ultimately be positive for long-duration bonds, because it anchors long-term inflation expectations and prevents runaway yields. The historical example of 2022 shows that when the Fed panicked and hiked aggressively, bond investors were able to hold in. Today's hawkish message from Chair Warsh reinforces that the Fed will not let inflation get out of control, which is good for long bonds over time.
Bonds & Rates
Long
Jun 02
$196.81
-4.7%
The AI trade remains the dominant market theme and has further upside. AI has the potential to replace the entire software stack, concentrating spending away from many SaaS products into a single AI context window. This justifies the current high valuations and concentration in AI-related stocks (48% of S&P 500). While risky, the AI trade is not a bubble and still has room to run.
Thematic ETFs
Long
Jun 14
$64.00
+0.5%
The AI trade still has room to run; it is high risk but also high reward, and he would continue playing it.
Thematic ETFs
Long
May 20
$110.37
-3.1%
TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) offer attractive real yields of 2.5-3% above inflation, providing a safe diversifier in a 5-7% return portfolio and a hedge against rising inflation.
Bonds & Rates
Short
Mar 13
$117.37
-20.7%
If Iran allows oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz, the geopolitical risk premium will evaporate, causing crude oil prices to drop significantly.
If Iran allows oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz, the geopolitical risk premium will evaporate, causing crude oil prices to drop significantly.
Commodities
Long
Mar 09
$677.71
+13.6%
The resolution of the Iran conflict is a risk-on catalyst for equities, as reflected by the S&P 500's gains.
The resolution of the Iran conflict is a risk-on catalyst for equities, as reflected by the S&P 500's gains.
Equity Indexes
Short
Mar 04
$96.81
+4.9%
"If four is the neutral funds rate, then about four and a half is the neutral two-year note and around low fives is the neutral five. We're about a 100 basis points below those." Bond yields and prices move inversely. Bianco argues the market is mispricing yields by ~100 basis points too low. As the market accepts the "3% inflation world," yields must rise to 5-6%, causing bond prices (TLT/IEF) to fall. SHORT long-duration Treasuries to capture the move to higher yields. A sudden economic collapse or recession could force yields down (flight to safety).
"If four is the neutral funds rate, then about four and a half is the neutral two-year note and around low fives is the neutral five. We're about a 100 basis points below those." Bond yields and prices move inversely. Bianco argues the market is mispricing yields by ~100 basis points too low. As the market accepts the "3% inflation world," yields must rise to 5-6%, causing bond prices (TLT/IEF) to fall. SHORT long-duration Treasuries to capture the move to higher yields. A sudden economic collapse or recession could force yields down (flight to safety).
Bonds & Rates
Long
Mar 04
$75.34
-20.6%
"I would probably term them more fair value... they're probably a decent investment that you can put your money into and probably get mid-single digit returns." Commodities have run up due to Asian demand (hedging against local economic failure) and the realization of a sticky inflation world. While no longer "cheap," they fit the "4-5-6" return model and offer protection against geopolitical shocks or sticky inflation. LONG (Hold) for steady, mid-single-digit compounding. A resolution to Asian economic woes could lead to selling (profit-taking) from Asian investors.
"I would probably term them more fair value... they're probably a decent investment that you can put your money into and probably get mid-single digit returns." Commodities have run up due to Asian demand (hedging against local economic failure) and the realization of a sticky inflation world. While no longer "cheap," they fit the "4-5-6" return model and offer protection against geopolitical shocks or sticky inflation. LONG (Hold) for steady, mid-single-digit compounding. A resolution to Asian economic woes could lead to selling (profit-taking) from Asian investors.
Commodities
Short
Aug 07
$1.20
-22.5%
Short United Wholesale Mortgage; CEO Mat Ishiba's dual sports-team ownership (Phoenix Suns + option on White Sox) signals management distraction as a structural deterioration mechanism, consistent with the company's 40% plunge and dividend suspension.
Real Estate Finance
Long
Aug 03
$9.73
+7.4%
Every technology eventually ends in a bubble, and AI will be no different. However, the bubble is likely still a couple of years away because the current narrative is one of compute constraint and under-usage by knowledge workers. The key risk that could accelerate the bubble and cause a bust is a sudden technological advance (from China or the U.S.) that makes existing data-center capacity massively overbuilt. This is a development worth monitoring as it would trigger the eventual AI overcapacity and bubble peak.
AI Software
Short
May 25
$180.07
-44.0%
Short CRM because customers will switch to a cheaper, tested AI alternative, forcing CRM to cut costs or lose market share.
Short CRM because customers will switch to a cheaper, tested AI alternative, forcing CRM to cut costs or lose market share.
AI Software
Long
May 01
$31.10
+1.8%
The Strait of Hormuz blockade will be protracted because there is no military solution and Iran is willing to endure economic pain. This will keep oil prices elevated for an extended period. The December 2026 Brent crude oil futures contract is making new highs, indicating the market does not expect a quick resolution. Jim Bianco recommends long oil positions via DBC (Deutsche Bank commodity index ETF), USO, or direct crude oil futures.
Commodities
Long
Apr 12
$73.96
+26.2%
Buy tanker stocks (e.g., TNK) because the rerouting of Middle Eastern crude to the US will dramatically increase ton-mile demand, while fleet expansion is a 3-5 year process, supporting higher day rates.
Buy tanker stocks (e.g., TNK) because the rerouting of Middle Eastern crude to the US will dramatically increase ton-mile demand, while fleet expansion is a 3-5 year process, supporting higher day rates.
Shipping & Tankers
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Jim Bianco has 19 trade ideas tracked on Buzzberg across 17 tickers since November 2025. Win rate 47% across 19 evaluated calls, average return -1.5%. Ranked #1043 on the Buzzberg Alpha leaderboard. Most covered: BNO, TLT, XLK.
