Mohamed El-Erian 8.2 169 ideas

Chief Economic Adviser at Allianz / Warden Professor
After 1 day
47%winrate
-0.1% avg
37W / 41L · 78/132 ideas
After 1 week
63%winrate
+1.2% avg
54W / 32L · 86/133 ideas
After 1 month
67%winrate
+3.9% avg
59W / 29L · 88/133 ideas
59 winning  /  29 losing  ·  88 positions (30d)
Net: +3.9%
Recent positions
TickerDirEntryP&LDate
USO LONG $124.57 Apr 12
USO LONG $124.57 Apr 11
TLT SHORT $86.59 Apr 10
USO LONG $128.50 Apr 09
USO SHORT $127.53 Apr 09
SPY SHORT $655.83 Apr 04
EWU SHORT $45.11 Mar 20
SPY SHORT $658.36 Mar 19
XLE LONG $59.47 Mar 19
JPY LONG $32.66 Mar 19
GBP LONG — — Mar 19
XLE LONG $58.53 Mar 19
TLT SHORT $87.15 Mar 18
TLT SHORT $87.36 Mar 18
By sector
ETF
67 ideas +2.4%
Commodity
37 ideas +9.7%
currency
36 ideas -2.2%
Stock
14 ideas -1.7%
index
7 ideas +19.6%
Crypto
6 ideas +3.1%
sector
2 ideas
Top tickers (by frequency)
GOLD 17 ideas
100% W +7.8%
TLT 17 ideas
50% W +0.6%
USD 13 ideas
60% W -1.6%
GBP 12 ideas
— —
WTI 10 ideas
86% W +15.0%
Best and worst calls
Best calls
SILVER LONG +50.5%
1. THE FACT: More record highs in Asian trading for precious metals: Spot silver rose 5.5% to $83.65, gold edged up 0.1%...
Dec 28
USO LONG +42.3%
"The surge in oil prices is a particular area to keep an eye on... The longer [the conflict] lasts... the more stagflati...
Mar 02
WTI LONG +27.7%
Up 14% today alone, WTI oil has just surged past $92 just now. This is consistent with a growing recognition of, and anx...
Mar 06
Worst calls
TSLA SHORT -21.6%
1. THE FACT: Tesla news highlights the forceful emergence of China's EV industry, including state-backed players, and no...
Nov 24
USD SHORT -14.2%
1. THE FACT: The latest US jobs report shows slowing job growth (64,000) and rising unemployment (4.6%). 2. THE BRIDGE: ...
Dec 16
SILVER LONG -11.6%
1. THE FACT: Silver just touched $100 an ounce, and gold continues its march toward $5,000. Key drivers include strategi...
Jan 23
Buy USO due to imminent supply disruption risk from the US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, catalyzed by the failure of US-Iran negotiations and escalating regional conflict.
USO MED Apr 12, 15:29
"If current conditions remain unchanged, we should expect a leg up in oil prices when the Asia-Pacific trading week begins."
𝕏 @elerianm ⏲ short-term Source ↗
April 12, 2026 at 15:29
𝕏 @elerianm
Chief Economic Adviser at...
The significant divergence between oil futures and spot prices indicates futures are mispriced and should rise to reflect the underlying physical supply shock.
USO HIGH Apr 11, 00:32
"the gap between them has grown unusually big in the past few weeks, so much so that oil executives and analysts say futures prices no longer accurately reflect the extent of the supply shock that the world is experiencing."
𝕏 @elerianm ⏲ short-term Source ↗
April 11, 2026 at 00:32
𝕏 @elerianm
Chief Economic Adviser at...
Expect April CPI inflation to be higher than March's data due to rising energy prices, which poses a downside risk to Treasury bond prices.
TLT HIGH Apr 10, 15:34
"It is virtually guaranteed that April’s data will be worse as the energy component continues to climb."
𝕏 @elerianm ⏲ short-term Source ↗
April 10, 2026 at 15:34
𝕏 @elerianm
Chief Economic Adviser at...
Oil prices are rising due to the recognized fragility of the Middle East ceasefire, implying further geopolitical risk premium.
USO HIGH Apr 09, 14:26
"Further to this post from early this morning, WTI oil is currently trading back above $100 a barrel..."
𝕏 @elerianm ⏲ short-term Source ↗
April 09, 2026 at 14:26
𝕏 @elerianm
Chief Economic Adviser at...
The ceasefire is fragile due to unresolved disputes over control of the Strait of Hormuz, creating downside risk for oil prices as the initial stability premium erodes.
USO MED Apr 09, 10:55
"Almost 36 hours into the ceasefire, international market pricing is recognizing its fragility."
𝕏 @elerianm ⏲ short-term Source ↗
April 09, 2026 at 10:55
𝕏 @elerianm
Chief Economic Adviser at...
The balance of global economic power is shifting away from US hegemony due to a new coalition of middle powers, which could weaken the relative standing of US assets.
SPY MED Apr 04, 12:30
"Washington is now facing a new kind of movement -- one advocated explicitly by Canada and France, mainly (but not exclusively) in reaction to the way the US-Israeli War on Iran is being conducted."
𝕏 @elerianm ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
April 04, 2026 at 12:30
𝕏 @elerianm
Chief Economic Adviser at...
▶ YouTube Squawk Pod: Talks with Iran, a call with the President, & energy prices - 03/23/26 | Audio Only
The speaker stated oil prices are completely dependent on unpredictable geopolitical headlines, using the example of WTI dropping from $98 to $87 within moments based on a presidential post. The near-term path of oil is solely a function of developments in the U.S.-Iran conflict, which remains highly uncertain due to multi-party negotiations, field commander actions in Iran, and Israeli objectives. Direction is WATCH because the asset is in a state of extreme headline-driven volatility with binary outcomes (escalation vs. de-escalation) dependent on unresolved political/military events within a 5-day window. A breakdown in talks or an incident on the ground (e.g., Israeli action, Iranian field commander strike) could instantly reverse the de-escalatory price move.
WTI CNBC Mar 23, 17:36
Mohamed El-Erian
Chief Economic Adviser at...
Soaring UK debt interest costs are constraining fiscal policy, creating a negative macro outlook for UK assets amid stagflationary pressures.
EWU HIGH Mar 20, 12:30
"This further reduces the 'fiscal headroom' for a government facing pressures from lower growth, higher inflation, and the need to protect the most vulnerable segments of society."
𝕏 @elerianm ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
March 20, 2026 at 12:30
𝕏 @elerianm
Unstable cross-asset correlations are forcing a flight to cash, which tightens financial conditions and is bearish for broad equity markets.
SPY MED Mar 19, 16:24
"A consequence of unstable, unpredictable asset-class correlations—which we are seeing more often—is that it pushes investors toward cash as the ultimate (nominal) safe haven."
𝕏 @elerianm ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
March 19, 2026 at 16:24
𝕏 @elerianm
War-related damage to energy infrastructure will constrain supply, leading to higher energy prices.
XLE MED Mar 19, 15:15
"For the energy-secure US, damaged infrastructure due to the War means higher prices."
𝕏 @elerianm ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
March 19, 2026 at 15:15
𝕏 @elerianm
Expecting the Bank of Japan to hike rates at its next meeting due to war-related inflationary pressures, a major policy shift that would strengthen the Japanese Yen.
JPY MED Mar 19, 12:45
"The next decision will most likely involve a hike in rates given the escalation phase of the Middle East War and the associated economic effects of the attacks on energy infrastructure."
𝕏 @elerianm ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
March 19, 2026 at 12:45
𝕏 @elerianm
Expecting the Bank of England to hike rates at its next meeting due to war-related inflationary pressures, which should strengthen the British Pound.
GBP MED Mar 19, 12:45
"The next decision will most likely involve a hike in rates given the escalation phase of the Middle East War and the associated economic effects of the attacks on energy infrastructure."
𝕏 @elerianm ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
March 19, 2026 at 12:45
𝕏 @elerianm
Geopolitical conflict in the Middle East is damaging energy infrastructure, which will likely lead to prolonged supply disruptions and higher energy prices.
XLE MED Mar 19, 01:51
"International energy prices rise further as more military attacks damage energy facilities in the Middle East."
𝕏 @elerianm ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
March 19, 2026 at 01:51
𝕏 @elerianm
The author believes the Fed is underestimating the frequency of future supply shocks, implying inflation and volatility will remain structurally higher, which is bearish for long-duration bonds.
TLT HIGH Mar 18, 19:03
"That's not where my thinking is. As outlined in the book"
𝕏 @elerianm ⏲ long-term Source ↗
March 18, 2026 at 19:03
𝕏 @elerianm
A combination of hotter-than-expected PPI data and new inflationary pressures from the Middle East conflict will keep rates higher, creating downside for long-duration bonds.
TLT HIGH Mar 18, 13:19
"These figures set a high inflation baseline just as the Middle East War, which began on February 28, is certain to exert fu[rther upward pressure on inflation]."
𝕏 @elerianm ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
March 18, 2026 at 13:19
𝕏 @elerianm
Mohamed El-Erian (Chief Economic Adviser at Allianz / Warden Professor) | 169 trade ideas tracked | GOLD, TLT, USD, GBP, WTI | Twitter, YouTube | Buzzberg