Earl Davis

Head of Fixed Income, BMO Global Asset Management
· tracked since Feb 2026
Calls 2 4 Posts tracked · 0.0/day
Calls
7d 0
30d 0
90d 0
Best Calls
ORCL long +49.7%
TLT short +5.1%
Worst Calls
No live losers yet
Most Mentioned
TLT ×2
ORCL ×1
US TREASURIES (10-YEAR) ×1
Recent Calls
ORCL long 3 months ago
TLT short 3 months ago
Win Rate 100% Long 1 Short 1
Win Rate
7d 0%
30d 100%
90d 100%
Average Return +27.4% Long Return +49.7% Short Return +5.1%
Average Return
7d -2.6%
30d +1.8%
90d +14.1%
Result
Result
Sort
Theme Stance
Ticker
Side
Mentions
Opened
Entry
P&L
Thesis
Theme
Source
TLT iShares ... iShares 20+ Year Tr...
Short
Feb 17
$89.87
+5.1%
Davis states, "As we approach 3.90 [on the 10-year], we go more and more underweight." Koesterich says, "I would be cautious about this rally in the 10-year, particularly as we get down to 4%." The market is pricing in aggressive cuts and a flight to safety that contradicts the reality of supply issuance and persistent inflation floors. Davis argues yields below 4% are not sustainable without a crash, making this a selling opportunity. SHORT duration at these levels. A geopolitical shock or rapid recession could force yields lower (flight to quality).
Davis states, "As we approach 3.90 [on the 10-year], we go more and more underweight." Koesterich says, "I would be cautious about this rally in the 10-year, particularly as we get down to 4%." The market is pricing in aggressive cuts and a flight to safety that contradicts the reality of supply issuance and persistent inflation floors. Davis argues yields below 4% are not sustainable without a crash, making this a selling opportunity. SHORT duration at these levels. A geopolitical shock or rapid recession could force yields lower (flight to quality).
Macro
YOUTUBE
ORCL Oracle C... Oracle Corporation
Long
Feb 17
$153.97
+49.7%
Davis mentions Oracle bonds trade about 200 basis points over 30-year bonds and 100 basis points over Meta equivalent bonds. He is comfortable with the "revenue generated by the future of AI supporting the spend." The spread offers a significant cushion and reward for risk compared to tighter tech credits. LONG ORCL Credit. AI revenue fails to materialize to cover capex debts.
Davis mentions Oracle bonds trade about 200 basis points over 30-year bonds and 100 basis points over Meta equivalent bonds. He is comfortable with the "revenue generated by the future of AI supporting the spend." The spread offers a significant cushion and reward for risk compared to tighter tech credits. LONG ORCL Credit. AI revenue fails to materialize to cover capex debts.
AI/Semi
YOUTUBE
Showing 2 of 2 picks ยท sorted by mentions