Earl Davis

Davis states, "As we approach 3.90 [on the 10-year], we go more and more underweight." Koesterich says, "I would be cautious about this rally in the 10-year, particularly as we get down to 4%." The market is pricing in aggressive cuts and a flight to safety that contradicts the reality of supply issuance and persistent inflation floors. Davis argues yields below 4% are not sustainable without a crash, making this a selling opportunity. SHORT duration at these levels. A geopolitical shock or rapid recession could force yields lower (flight to quality).

The 30-year Treasury yield could hit 6% before the 10-year hits 5% due to pressure on the long end; the 10-year at 5% is a strong buy, while the 30-year at 6% carries too much duration risk.

The firm bought all investment-grade credit in the two-to-three-year bucket because it can convert that exposure to cash and rotate into high yield when spreads widen. This is liquid dry powder rather than a permanent credit position.

Treasury yields are heading structurally higher due to competition for capital from AI-related IPOs and bond issuance, rebuilding of commodity stockpiles, and post-conflict reconstruction. The 10-year could reach 5% by 2027, making Treasuries unattractive to hold.

Davis mentions Oracle bonds trade about 200 basis points over 30-year bonds and 100 basis points over Meta equivalent bonds. He is comfortable with the "revenue generated by the future of AI supporting the spend." The spread offers a significant cushion and reward for risk compared to tighter tech credits. LONG ORCL Credit. AI revenue fails to materialize to cover capex debts.